Transcript GLOBAL Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS

Global Real Time Ocean
Forecast System (RTOFSGlobal)
Team: Avichal Mehra, Ilya Rivin, Bhavani Balasubramaniam,
Todd Spindler, Zulema Garaffo, Hendrik Tolman and
Deanna Spindler.
RTOFS-Global

RTOFS Global will be the first global eddy-resolving ocean forecast system at
NOAA/NCEP.

This global system will be based on a 1/12 degree HYCOM (HYbrid
Coordinate Ocean Model) with a Pan-Am Global Grid (4500 x 3928).

The system has 32 vertical hybrid layers (isopycnal in the deep, isolevel in
the mixed layer and sigma in shallow waters).

The initialization is based on a MVOI scheme (NCODA) developed by the US
Navy which assimilates daily observations (T,S, U,V and sea surface height)
in a sequential incremental update cycle to produce analysis.

The daily global ocean forecasts at NCEP will be forced with the GFS surface
fluxes of radiation, precipitation and momentum.
1/12 Degree Global Domain
Motivation

NCEP needs a global eddy-resolving ocean model:


Part of NOAA ocean modeling backbone capability (SAB 2004, NOAA
response 2005).
• Partnering with NOS and IOOS-RA’s
• Part of larger National Backbone capability in strong partnership with
Navy.
Internal needs for NCEP:
• EMC/OPC / TPC / WFO’s need for real time eddy-resolving ocean
products for customers.
• MMAB and NOS need for real-time eddy-resolving boundary data for
areas of interest:
 Coupled regional hurricane modeling.
• Atlantic, East Pacific, ….
 Centerpiece of integrated ocean modeling system ( e.g. plume
modeling for radionuclide dispersion near Japan).
Preliminary Monitoring
and Diagnostics
Gulf Stream location
Difference (in degrees) between the feature-based GS location from
NAVOCEANO and numerical models. RTOFS-Global is comparable to
NCOM (US Navy) 1/32 degree high resolution model of Gulf Stream.
Data Provided by OPC
1.8
1.6
1.4
Degrees
1.2
1
RTOFS-Atlantic (Nowcast)
0.8
RTOFS-Global (Nowcast)
NCOM- HiRes (Nowcast)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
5
10
Dates
15
Days since 12/20/1010
20
25
Daily Bias and RMS differences between OISST and Global RTOFS.
Averages over this period were 0.1 °C (Bias) and 1.0 °C (RMS).
Data Provided by OPC
1.2
1
0.8
Daily RMS
°C
Daily Bias
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1/17/2011
1/22/2011
1/27/2011
2/1/2011
Dates
2/6/2011
2/11/2011
2/16/2011
2011 Fall AGU Session
 OS12:
Multi-scale Ocean Modeling and
Opportunities for Coastal Marine and
Ecosystem Forecast Services
Description:
NOAA provides a model forecast and computational backbone for multi-scale
ocean predictions from global to coastal coverage. Over the past five years,
forecast systems have been developed and made operational to support and
provide opportunity for local applications. The goal of this session is to
publicize these emerging capabilities and stimulate discussion between users
of these applications and those who are providing the services backbone.
Abstracts on key areas are encouraged, such as 1) operational
global/regional/coastal ocean and ecosystem forecast systems; and 2)
coupled atmosphere/ocean/ecosystem forecast systems. Emphasis is on
lessons learned from established operational systems.
Potential Temperature at WOCE section I-8 (top) compared to
the same section from RTOFS-Global (bottom)
Salinity at WOCE section A-3 (top) compared to the same section
from RTOFS-Global (bottom)