Is Carbon Trading and Investment the next Sub-Prime Crisis?

“Dubious Assets and Dodgy Data” CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

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The Sub-Prime Crisis

AAA

Securities Investors Property Agents Lenders Issuing banks Historic Mortgage experience based on Credit-worthy Owner-Occupiers Loan files (tapes) Fraudulent applications/Poor risks CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

Credit Ratings Agencies Borrowers 2

Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)

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The scientific method

 Establish hypothesis  Conduct experiments and observations  Publish results in an accredited scientific journal  Make source data, assumptions, calculations and programs available to others  Independent peer review  Hypothesis is proven or abandoned CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

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AGW hypothesis

“It is now clear that man-made greenhouse gases are causing climate change. The rate of change began as significant, has become alarming and is simply unsustainable in the long term”

Warming Climate change – the facts Met Office 2009 CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

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Greenhouse effect

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Warming Climate change – the facts Met Office 2009 6

Absence of greenhouse hot-spots

The Missing Hotspot - Dr David Evans http://sciencespeak.com/MissingSignature.pdf

http://sciencespeak.com/SimpleHotspot.pdf

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2005JD006881.shtml

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Correlation of CO2 and temperature

This figure shows historical CO2 (right axis) and reconstructed temperature (as a difference from the mean temperature for the last 100 years) records based on Antarctic ice cores, providing data for the last 800,000 years.

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The logic puzzle?

“Temperature and CO2 are linked. Studies of polar-ice layers show that in the past, rises in temperature have been followed by an increase in CO2. Now, it is a rise in CO2 causing the temperature to rise."

Warming Climate change – the facts Met Office 2009  Over the last 800,000 years, rises in global temperatures have

preceded

increased concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere by up to 800 years  Global temperatures fell from 1940 to 1979 whilst CO2 emissions escalated throughout the post-war industrial boom  C02 concentration in the atmosphere has been much higher (000's of parts per million) CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

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CO2

• 95% of greenhouse gas is water vapour • CO2's contribution to greenhouse effect is < 3% http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html

• Any warming influence is logarithmic – the first 20ppm has the greatest effect by far • At current levels (390 parts per million) additional CO2 will have little effect CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

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Feedbacks

• Predictions based on 200% to 300% positive feedback from increased CO2 concentrations • Most climate models rely on this false premise • Actual observations indicate mildly negative feedbacks

On the Diagnosis of Feedback in the Presence of Unknown Radiative Forcing

by Dr. Roy W. Spencer and William D. Braswell http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Spencer-Braswell-JGR-2010.pdf

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Temperature data

• • • • • Surface temperature records – Urban Heating Influence, lack of global uniformity, unintended consequences Anthony Watts – http://wattsupwiththat.com/ Proxy data: ice cores, tree rings, fossilised pollen and coral reefs Weather Balloons Satellites History CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

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• • • • • •

History

Chaucer wrote of vineyards in England Medieval Warm Period - temperatures c.1-3 ºC higher than today Roman and Holocene warm periods Vikings settled Greenland c. 980 to 1400 AD Little Ice Age – Maunder and Dalton minima Samuel Pepys wrote in 1683 of the Great Frost Fair on the River Thames – frozen for several weeks CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

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IPCC Report 1991

H.H. Lamb graph of temperature over the past 1,000 years CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

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IPCC 2001 Report

IPCC hockey stick graph of the past 1,000 years CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

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• • •

Debunking the hockey stick

McIntyre and McKitrick http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/trc.html

Edward J Wegman, George Mason University, David W Scott, Rice University, and Yasmin H Said, The John Hopkins University http://republicans.energycommerce.house.gov/108/home/07142006_Wegman_Report.pdf

McShane and Wyner 2010 http://www.e-publications.org/ims/submission/index.php/AOAS/user/submissionFile/6695?confirm=63ebfddf CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

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Climategate – November 2009

 68Mb of documents and emails from the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) posted on the internet  Confirmation of the isolated and politicised paleoclimatic community  Collusion, data and program manipulation  HARRY_READ_ME.txt

 Hide the decline (Mike's Nature trick) CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

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Climategate – three inquiries 2010

   UK Parliament Science and Technology Committee – rushed (impending general election), superficial and biased Oxbrough – not independent of UEA, characterised as a whitewash by Graham Stringer MP Muir Russell – not independent and described as inadequate by Graham Stringer MP No-one investigated the science supporting the AGW theory John P Costella http://assassinationscience.com/climategate/ CRU evidence: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/387/387ii.pdf

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Extreme weather events

 Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900 Chris Landsea, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/landsea-eos-may012007.pdf

 Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change? - Laurens M Bouwer of the Institute for Environmental Studies, Amsterdam http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010BAMS3092.1

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Polar Ice

 Antarctic Temperature and Sea Ice Trends over the Last Century - George Taylor, CCM http://icecap.us/images/uploads/antarctica_white_paper_final.pdf

 Arctic temperatures above 80 °N are the lowest in six years http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/23/arctic-temperatures-above-80%C2%B0n-are-the-lowest-in-six-years/ CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

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Retreating glaciers

 Glacial retreat in the Himalayas has been overstated by the IPCC  In the 1940s Swiss glaciers were melting faster than at present  Reduction in glacier mass is ascribed to solar radiation rather than man-made global warming http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL040789.shtml

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Lack of Evidence

• No discernible greenhouse effect in troposphere • No evidence that CO2 is driving temperature • Current temperatures within the bounds of natural variability • No evidence that global warming is causing extreme weather events • Arctic polar ice growing again, evidence of cooling in the Antarctic -1966 to 2000 • Glacier retreat ascribed to solar radiation CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

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 

Natural cycles and global temperature

Solar cycles - sunspots, solar magnetism, inverse correlation between cycle length and global temperatures http://www.davidarchibald.info/papers/Archibald2009E&E.pdf

Galactic Cosmic Rays – influence cloud formation http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1181073 /  Albedo – reduction in low level reflective cloud cover accounts for recent warming from 1980 to 2000  Pacific, Atlantic, Arctic ocean decadal and multi-decadal oscillations distribute heat from the tropics. Evidence of cycles and time lags CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

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Pacific decadal oscillation

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“Is the science is settled?”

 Senate Minority Report – over 700 scientists publicly dissent http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Files.View&FileStore_id=83947f5d-d84a-4a84-ad5d-6e2d71db52d9  The IPCC can't count its "expert scientists": Author and reviewer numbers are wrong - John McLean 2009 http://mclean.ch/climate/docs/IPCC_numbers.pdf

 Copenhagen Climate Change Challenge – 166 expert climate scientists write an open letter to UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki Moon http://www.copenhagenclimatechallenge.org/ CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

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Structural incentives to prove and promote AGW

 IPCC exists to promote the AGW hypothesis  Paleoclimatic community and climate models drive the IPCC agenda – receive funding to support AGW hypothesis  $50+billion spent by successive US governments on man-made global warming agenda in since 1989  Carbon trading worth c. $140 billion in 2008  US “Cap and Trade” legislation could boost it to $1trillion+  Carbon industry will evaporate if AGW hypothesis is abandoned CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

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Century Carbon Caper

Investment Managers & Advisers

Carbon

Investors

Credits

Carbon trading industry Politicians and Media Flawed Climate Models and Hockey Sticks IPCC, pro-AGW warming scientists Informed Sceptics Solar Cycles, Galactic Cosmic Rays, Albedo Fluctuation, Oceanic Oscillations CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

Objective scientists 28

Further research

www.outersite.org

http://www.greatglobalwarmingswindle.co.uk/ http://www.friendsofscience.org/index.php?id=394 http://climateaudit.org/ http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/12697/64796?RS_show_page=7 “Chill, A Reassessment of Global Warming” http://www.ethos-uk.com/publishing.html

Beware of wikipedia – climate information has been systematically corrupted http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2009/12/19/lawrence-solomon wikipedia-s-climate-doctor.aspx

Michael Mann and co-conspirators (their term, not mine – Tom Wigley, former Director of CRU, in an email to Michael Mann) have a pro-AGW site: www.realclimate.org

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Roy Spencer – monthly global temperature anomolies

http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/ CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

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Century Carbon Caper

• No evidence that CO2 is driving temperature • Recent warming not unprecedented • Solar cycles and Oceanic oscillations drive temperature • No scientific consensus • Structural incentives to obscure the truth • Conduct fundamental research CarbonTradingCrisis.v.1.7

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