Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health

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Transcript Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health

Water Quality & Quantity

Climate Change Training Module

Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health

Minnesota Climate and Health Program Minnesota Department of Health Environmental Impacts Analysis Unit October 2012 625 Robert Street North PO Box 64975 St. Paul, MN 55164-0975

Notice

MDH developed this presentation based on scientific research published in peer-reviewed journals. References for information can be found in the relevant slides and/or at the end of the presentation.

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Learning Objectives

 Importance of water in Minnesota  Climate changes in Minnesota  Public health issues related to: 1. Increases in water 2. Decreases in water 3. Increases in water temperature 3

IMPORTANCE OF WATER IN MINNESOTA

Water Sources

Water Cycle

Water Uses

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Minnesota: A Land of Water

 Surface water: 11,842 lakes greater than 10 acres and 63,000 miles of rivers and streams (NCDC 2006, University of Minnesota Water Resources Center 2011)  Groundwater: several aquifers across the state and approx imately 400,000 drinking water wells (DNR, 2010; MDH, 2012) 5 Source: University of Minnesota Water Resources Center 2011

Minnesota: A Land of Water

 Has the most freshwater among the 48 lower states (University of Minnesota Water Resources Center, 2011)

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 At the head of four continental watersheds and is the headwaters and origin of three of the watersheds (DNR, 2000)

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Source: DNR, 2000

2 3

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Water in Minnesota

 99% of the water that comes into Minnesota is in the form of precipitation (University of Minnesota Water Resources Center 2011)  We control the quality & quantity of water we use and discard 7

Water in Minnesota

 Three main air masses affect Minnesota’s weather: 1.

2.

3.

Cold, dry, polar continental from the north Dry, tropical continental westerlies Warm, moist tropical maritime from the Gulf of Mexico

Major air masses converging to MN 2 1 3

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Hydrologic Cycle

 The hydrologic cycle describes the continuous movement of water:  Evaporation to the atmosphere  Precipitation to the land  Infiltration to groundwater  Discharge to surface water  Changes in climate can alter the hydrologic cycle  Temperature affects water vapor which affects precipitation http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/watershed_tool/hydr ology.html

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Water Use

 19% water use comes from ground water and the remaining comes from surface water

Total water use in MN from 1985 to 2010

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Water Use

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Minnesota Drinking Water

 78% of Minnesotans rely on public drinking water which is largely from groundwater (~70%)  One million Minnesotans (22%) rely on private wells, which all use groundwater 12

Water is Key

  Minnesota is rich in water resources High quality, abundant water is essential to Minnesota economy, culture, future  Understanding the basic properties of the water cycle and the atmosphere is fundamental to understanding impacts of climate change on water 13

CLIMATE CHANGES IN MINNESOTA

   Temperature Dew point Precipitation 14

Weather versus Climate

 Weather: conditions of the atmosphere over a short period of time  Climate: conditions of the atmosphere over long periods of time (30-year standard averaging period) 15

Climate Changes in Minnesota

There have been three recent significant observed climate trends in Minnesota:

 The average temperature is increasing  The average number of days with a high dew point may be increasing  The character of precipitation is changing 16

Temperature Changes

Temperature has been rising in Minnesota.

Minnesota Average Temperature 12 month period ending December

Source: Western Regional Climate Center 49 47 45 43 41 39 37 35

Ending Year of Period

Annual Average Temperature 10-Year Running Average 17

Temperature Changes

Three significant observations in this overall warming:  Winter temperatures have been rising about twice as fast as annual average temperatures  Minimum or 'overnight low' temperatures have been rising faster than the maximum temperature, or ‘daytime high’  Since the early 1980s, the temperature has risen slightly over 1°F in southern Minnesota to a little over 2°F in much of the northern part of the state 18

Temperature and Ice Cover

Lake Superior

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Dew Point Changes

 Dew point is a measure of water vapor in the air  The higher the dew point, the more difficult it is for people's sweat to evaporate, which is how they cool themselves  The number of days with high dew point temperatures (≥ 70 °F) may be increasing in Minnesota 20

Dew Point Changes

Source: Dr. Mark Seeley, Climatologist, University of Minnesota 21

Precipitation Changes

On average, the total precipitation in the state has increased since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s.

Minnesota Total Annual Precipitation 12 month period ending in December

Source: Western Regional Climate Center 40 35 30 25 20 15 10

Ending Year of Period

Total Annual Precipitation 10-year Running Average 22

Precipitation Changes

 The character of precipitation in Minnesota is changing  More localized, heavy precipitation events  Potential to cause both increased flooding and drought 23

Public health issues related to:

   Increases in water Decreases in water Increases in water temperature

Increases in Water

Highway 169 between St. Peter and LeSueur    Precipitation Changes Flooding Humidity & Dew Point

Precipitation Changes

Changes in Snowfall Contributions to Wintertime Precipitation (1949 to 2005)

More wintertime precipitation falls as rain rather than snow  This trend may increase risks of runoff and floods  Reduced snowpack may lead to lower water levels and drought in late summer (Karl et al. 2009) 26

Precipitation Changes

 Greatest increase in very heavy precipitation in the past 50 years occurred in the Northeast and the Midwest (Karl et al. 2009)  Total precipitation in the Midwest and Northeast is expected to increase the most with the largest increases in heavy precipitation events (Karl et al. 2009)

Very heavy precipitation is defined as the heaviest 1 percent of all daily events from 1958 to 2007 for each region.

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Public Health Issues - Precipitation

Extreme Precipitation Physical injuries and destruction of property

Sewage overflows Increased runoff: sediment, contaminants, nitrate, etc.

Contamination of surface and groundwater

Waterborne disease outbreaks from drinking water or recreational contact (beachgoers): Giardiasis, E coli, Cryptosporidium

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Flooding

 Flooding results from a combination of  Land use changes that reduce infiltration  Undersized sewer/stormwater pipes  Extreme precipitation and/or rapid snowmelt  Flood magnitude and frequency are likely to increase in most regions, and volumes of low flows are likely to decrease in many regions (Field et al, 2007) 29

Flooding

 2012 Duluth/northeastern Minnesota 500-year flood event Photo credits: Rachel Agurkis (top), Derek Montgomery for MPR (right) 30

Public Health Issues - Flooding

 Potential increases of:  physical injuries (including drowning)  allergies (mold)  food and water-borne illnesses  food security  displacement  mental health issues  interruption of emergency services (WHO, 2010) Oslo, MN, May 14, 2009 35 days after the Red River flooded 31

Public Health Issues - Flooding

 Foodborne illnesses (e.g. Salmonellosis)  Increased risk from contamination of certain food crops with feces from nearby livestock or wild animals following heavy rain and flooding (Ebi et al, 2008; CCSP, 2008)  Waterborne illnesses  Caused by pathogens (e.g. Cryptosporidium and Giardia) which may increase following downpours  Can also be transmitted in drinking water and through recreational use (Ebi et al, 2008; CCSP, 2008) 32

Public Health Issues - Flooding

   

1993 Milwaukee Cryptosporidium Outbreak

1.61 M people were affected; over 400,000 w/ significant symptoms; 100 people died Median duration of illness was 9 days (range, 1 to 55) Clinical manifestations included watery diarrhea (93%), abdominal cramps (84%), fever (57%), vomiting (48%) $31.7 million in total medical costs and $64.6 million in total lost productivity 33

Public Health Issues - Flooding

 Mental health: anxiety disorders, depression, psychological effects (Ebi et al. 2008) 34

Humidity/Dew Point Increase

 Greater frequency of tropical-like atmospheric water vapor (Mark Seeley, 2012) 35

Humidity/Dew Point Increase

 July 19, 2011: highest dew point temperature recorded ever in Minnesota 88°F dew point in Moorhead (combined with 93°F air temperature, it felt like 130°F) (State Climatology Office) 36

Heat Index

The Heat Index (HI): calculation that describes how the air temperature and dew point are perceived the human body (Source: NWS, 2011b) 37

Public Health Issues – Humidity & Heat

    Human health issues:  heat rash, heat exhaustion, heatstroke, death  Stressed livestock:  reduced milk production, reproduction problems, death Algae blooms Mold Increased vector and microorganism populations 38

Decrease in Water

  Drought Lower water levels

Drought

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Water Levels: Great Lakes

 Average Great Lakes levels depends on the balance between precipitation and evaporation (Hayhoe et al. 2010) 41

Public Health Issues – Drought & Lower Water Levels

 Reduced soil moisture reserves,  groundwater supplies, lake and wetland levels, and stream flows Potential concentration of  pollutants Decreasing water supply for  drinking water and agriculture Agriculture: adversely affects crop progress and soil moisture and therefore food supply  Wildfire dangers (e.g., Pagami Creek Fire, Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness – started August 18 th 2011; 92,682 acres as of Oct. 13 th 2011): injuries, property damage, anxiety, psychological effects 42

Increase in Water Temperature

 Changes in fish populations & mercury   Algal blooms Reduced dissolved oxygen    Incomplete mixing Increased vectors Invasive species/ northern expansion of organisms

Fish Populations & Mercury

  Warmer waters could harm fish populations and biological activity of cold aquatic ecosystems Warmer waters and rainfall intensity may be contributing to an increase in mercury concentrations in fish Conceptual diagram of climate warming effects on Minnesota fish communities Source: Peter Jacobson, DNR Fisheries Research Supervisor 44

Harmful Algal Blooms & Reduced Dissolved Oxygen

 Increased pollution and temperatures can result in blooms of harmful algae and bacteria and reduce the amount of dissolved oxygen 45

Incomplete mixing

Stratification  Longer periods of stratification (surface and water bottom don’t mix) may cause dead zones (low oxygen levels) and decrease self purification capabilities of water features  May cause fish kills, poor water quality, increased insect populations, etc. 46

Increased vectors

 Climate change may contribute to the breeding of insects (e.g., mosquitoes) and may increase the risk of vector-borne diseases (e.g., West Nile virus)

Invasive species & northern expansion of organisms

 Invasive species  Asian carp  Zebra mussels  Sea lamprey  DNR Invasive Species website: Many zebra mussels attached to a native mussel.

Source: MN DNR http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/invasives/index.html

 Expansion of disease-causing organisms  Naegleria fowleri

Public Health Strategies

    Green infrastructure Grey infrastructure Emergency Preparedness Individual Strategies 49

Green Infrastructure

 Rely on natural processes:  Evaporation  Trees and plant cover  Infiltration  Rain gardens  Pervious pavers  Wetlands

Above: Target Center Roof in Minneapolis Conservation Subdivision

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Grey Infrastructure

 Increase capacity of stormwater pipes, storage tanks and wastewater treatment facilities to accommodate larger rain events 51

Green & Grey Infrastructure

Water Management Solutions

1. Protect natural drainage patterns, watersheds and water bodies 2. Infiltrate and collect water 3. Plant native, drought resistant plants 4. Conserve water (e.g., low irrigation agriculture) 5. Reuse water Source: DNR, 2011d 52

Emergency Preparedness

Emergency preparedness:

 Plan for floods and extreme weather events  Minnesota Water/Wastewater Agency Response Network (MnWARN): http://www.mnwarn.org/  Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) website on preparing for floods: http://www.pca.state.mn.us/index.php/waste/waste and-cleanup/cleanup-programs-and-topics/cleanup programs/emergency-response/floods-minimizing-pollution-and health-risks.html

 Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) website on protecting private wells from floods: http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/eh/wells/waterquality/floode d.html

 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Flood Insurance Program: http://www.fema.gov/business/nfip/ 53

Individual Strategies

    

Contaminated Water

Drink bottled water during and/or after a flood or outbreak Get your well tested  http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/eh/wells/waterquality/index.html

Treat contaminated water  http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/eh/wells/waterquality/disinfection.ht

ml Seek information on beaches prior to swimming and avoid visibly contaminated waters  Beach info: http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/eh/beaches/index.html

 Blue-green algae: http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/eh/hazardous/topics/bluegreenalgae.html

Track fish consumption advisories  http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/eh/fish/ 54

Summary

    Water has always been an important and abundant resource in Minnesota Minnesota’s climate is predicted to change in the future and will impact water quality and quantity There are serious public health issues related to:  Increases in water  Decreases in water  Increases in water temperature Strategies to prevent injury and illness include infrastructure adaptation and public health planning and response 55

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by cooperative agreement 5UE1EH000738 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Special thanks to the following people for their contributions to the creation of this training module: Anita Anderson, MDH Patti Craddock, Short Elliott Hendrickson Inc. (SEH) Chris Elvrum, MDH Tannie Eshenaur, MDH Ann Pierce, DNR Angela Preimesberger, MPCA Lih-in Rezania, MDH Andrew Sullivan, Eden Prairie 56

Thank you Questions?

Contact the Minnesota Climate and Health Program:

651-201-4893 [email protected]

http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/climatechange/ October 10, 2012 57

References

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Horstmeyer, SL. 2008. Relative humidity . . . Relative to what? The dew point temperature . . . a better approach. Available online: http://www.shorstmeyer.com/wxfaqs/humidity/humidity.html

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Keeling R. 2012. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Available online: scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/ Kemble, et al. 2012. Fatal Naegleria fowleri infection acquired in Minnesota: possible expanded range of a deadly thermophilic organism. Clin Infect Dis. 2012 Mar;54(6):805-9. Epub 2012 Jan 11.

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Midwestern Regional Climate Center. 2010. Climate Change & Variability in the Midwest. Temperature and Precipitation Trends 1895 – 2010. Available online: http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/climate_midwest/mwclimate_ change.htm# Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA). 2011a. Blue-green Algae and Harmful Algal Blooms. Available online: http://www.pca.state.mn.us/index.php/water/water-types-and-programs/surface-water/lakes/lake-water-quality/blue-green-algae-and-harmful-algal-blooms.html

___________. 2011b. Floods: Minimizing Pollution and Health Risks. Available online: http://www.pca.state.mn.us/index.php/waste/waste-and-cleanup/cleanup programs-and-topics/cleanup-programs/emergency-response/floods-minimizing-pollution-and-health-risks.html

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References (cont.)

Minnesota Public Radio (MPR). 2011a. Pagami Creek Fire in BWCA now estimated at 100,000 acres. Available online: http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2011/09/13/pagami-fire-60000-acres-evacuations-underway/ __________. 2011b. Crazy record! Highest dew point ever at MSP Airport (82!). Available online: http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/updraft/archive/2011/07/another_48_hours_of_relentless.shtml

Monson, Bruce. 2009. Trend Reversal of Mercury Concentrations in Piscivorous Fish from Minnesota Lakes: 1982#2006. Environ. Sci. Technol., 43 (6), 1750-1755. Morel FMM, Kraepiel AML, and Amyot M. 1998: The chemical cycle and bioaccumulation of mercury. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 29, 543-566.

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__________________. 2012. Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook. Available online: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 2011. National Climactic Data Center, Storm Event Database. Available online: http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwEvent~Storms Noji EK. Natural disaster. Crit Care Clim 1991; 14:27-92.

Ohl CA and Tapsell S. 2000. Flooding and human health. BMJ 2000;321:1167 Santer BD, Thorne PW, Haimberger L, Taylor KE, Wigley TML, Lanzante JR, Solomon S, Free M, Gleckler PJ, Jones PD, Karl TR, Klein SA, Mears C, Nychka D, Schmidt GA, Sherwood SC, and Wentz FJ. 2008. Consistency of modeled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. International Journal of Climatology, 28(13), 1703-1722.

Seeley M. 2012. Climate Trends and Climate Change in Minnesota: A Review. Minnesota State Climatology Office. Available online: http://climate.umn.edu/seeley/ Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Alley RB, Berntsen T, Bindoff NL, Chen Z, Chidthaisong A, Gregory JM, Hegerl GC, Heimann M, Hewitson B, Hoskins BJ, Joos F, Jouzel J, Kattsov V, Lohmann U, Matsuno T, Molina M, Nicholls N, Overpeck J, Raga G, Ramaswamy V, Ren J, Rusticucci M, Somerville R, Stocker TF, Whetton P, Wood RA and Wratt D. 2007. Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M and Miller HL (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

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State Climatology Office. Department of Natural Resources – Division of Ecological and Water Resources and the University of Minnesota – Department of Soil, Water, and Climate. Available online: http://climate.umn.edu/ Drought Information Resources (http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/drought_ information_resources.htm) Dew Point (http://climate.umn.edu/doc/twin_cities/mspdewpoint.htm) Dew Point July 19, 2011 Technical Analysis (http://climate.umn.edu/pdf/july_19_2011_ technical.pdf) 60

References (cont.)

State Climatology Office (cont.) Drought 1988 (http://climate.umn.edu/pdf/drought88.pdf) Drought 2011 (http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/drought_2011.htm) Flash Floods (http://climate.umn.edu/doc/flashflood.htm) Heavy Rainfall 2010 (http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/flash_floods/ff100924.htm) Historic Lake Ice-Out Dates (http://climate.umn.edu/doc/ice_out/ice_out_historical.htm) Minnesota State-Averaged Annual Precipitation Trends: 1891-2010 (http://climate.umn.edu/ doc/online_resources.htm

Trenberth, K. E., J. T. Fasullo, and J. Mackaro. 2011: Atmospheric moisture transports from ocean to land and global energy flows in reanalyses. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4171.1

University of Minnesota Water Resources Center. 2011. Minnesota Water Sustainability Framework. Available online: http://wrc.umn.edu/prod/groups/cfans/@pub/@cfans/@wrc/documents/asset/cfans_asset _292471.pdf

US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA). 2011. Agriculture and Food Supply. Available online: http://epa.gov/climatechange/effects/agriculture.html

US Forest Service Incident Information System. 2011. Pagami Creek Fire. Available online: http://www.inciweb.org/incident/2534/ US Geological Survey (USGS). 1991. National Water Summary 1988-89: Hydrologic Events and Floods and Droughts. Available online: http://climate.umn.edu/pdf/minnesota_floods_and_drought.pdf

________. 2012. The Water Cycle, a Quick Summary. (website). Accessed online May 2012: http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/watercyclehi.html

US National Hazard Statistics. 2012. Accessed 7/30/2012. Available online: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml

Water on the Web: http://www.waterontheweb.org/index.html

Western Regional Climate Center. (WRCC) 2011a. Minnesota Temperature 1890 – 2010: 12 month period ending in December. Generated online November 2011. Available online: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/spi/divplot1map.html

________. 2011b. Minnesota Precipitation 1890 – 2010: 12 month period ending in December. Generated online November 2011. Available online: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/spi/divplot1map.html

Williamson CE, Saros JE, and Schindler DW. 2009: Sentinels of change. Science, 323(5916), 887-888.

World Health Organization (WHO). 2010. Climate change and health. Fact sheet N°266. Available online: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs266/en/ Zandlo, Jim 2008. Observing the climate. Minnesota State Climatology Office. Available online: http://climate.umn.edu/climateChange/climateChangeObservedNu.htm

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Photo Credits

                        Slide 4: Photograph by Chaïna Bapikee Slide 7: Images from Microsoft Clip Art Slide 12: Images from Microsoft Clip Art Slide 15: Images from Microsoft Clip Art Slide 19: Images from Microsoft Clip Art Slide 25: KEYC Television Slide 26: Photograph by Sam Choo, available at http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/updraft/archive/2011/07/another_48_hours_of _relentless.shtml

Slide 29: Photograph by Patsy Lynch/FEMA, August 23, 2007 Stockton Slide 30: Left image from Rachel Agurkis, Right image from Derek Montgomery for MPR Slide 31: Photograph by Ed Edahl/FEMA, May 14, 2009 Oslo Slide 32: Image of salmonella from Wikipedia, available at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salmonella Slide 33: Photograph credit - Kathy Blair & Jeffrey P. Davis, MD Wisconsin Division of Public Health Slide 34: Photograph by Gettyimages Slide 35: Image by Tildology, available at http://tildology.com/2011/07/19/misery-index-weather-wise/ Slide 36: The Weather Channel 2011 Slide 38: Top image from AFP/Getty Images (provided by Peter Synder, UMN) Slide 39: Left photograph DNR, right photograph by Chaïna Bapikee Slide 42: Photograph by Kate Houston Slide 43: Image from Microsoft Clip Art Slide 45: Photograph of blue-green algae, Source: MPCA Slide 47: Image of mosquito from Wikipedia, available at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosquito Slide 48: Image of zebra mussels from MN DNR, available at http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/invasives/aquaticanimals/zebramussel/index.html

Slide 50: Top image from Pam Blixt, City of Minneapolis; bottom image from Microsoft Clip Art Slide 51: Image of culvert from Wikipedia, available at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culvert 62