Transcript `Future shock` for AOs

AO Forum 9th May 2013
Milton Hill House Hotel, Oxford
‘Future shock’ for AOs –
the only constant – change!
“Future shock”:
“The shattering stress and disorientation
that we induce in individuals by subjecting
them to too much change in too short a time,
the dizzying disorientation brought on by
The premature arrival of the future!”
Alvin Tofler 1970
Aims for this session:
• Review the current AO environment
• Brief analysis of core issues
• Identifying key strengths/opportunities
• Some predictions!
• Discussion!
Our regulated environment:
• 176 recognised AOs
• 10 surrendered recognition in 2012
• 2 more AOs were in process of
surrendering at end of 2012
• Robust entry criteria
• 1 accepted in May 2012
• 2 more through the first phase of
submission
Benefits of regulation:
• Quality assured products – confidence for
learners & employers
• Regulated products meet high standards
• Listing of all qualifications on the register
• Enhanced standing of qualifications in
potential overseas markets
‘Where are we now?’PEST/LEID Analysis:
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Political
Economic
Social
Technology
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Legal
Environmental
International
Demographic
Politics!
Some current issues – impact:
• QUALIFICATIONS FOR 16 -19
• RICHARD REVIEW OF
APPRENTICESHIPS
• HESELTINE REVIEW
• SKILLS FUNDING
• WHITEHEAD REVIEW
Qualifications for 16-19:
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New programmes from Sept 2013
Funding to follow learner
English, Maths, ‘A’ level or ‘substantial’ VQ
DfE currently consulting on which VQs will be
performance tables (min 150 GLH)
• 3 types: ‘Academic’, ‘Applied General’
& ‘Occupational’
• FAB responding
Richard Review of
Apprenticeships:
• HMGs response now out – generally supportive
• Agreed that:
• Employers take a primary role
• Ensure all apprenticeships are rigorous
& responsive to employers’ needs
• Consultation needed on how to turn
vision to reality – respond by 22 May
FAB draft now out – respond by 17 May
Heseltine Report – ‘No
stone unturned’:
• HMG now accepted almost all recommendations
• LEPs best placed to decide funding priorities
for skills
• Local needs must be paramount for FE
• Single Local Growth Fund – watch out for the
next spending review announcements!
Skills Funding:
• Revised funding proposals – sometimes at short
notice
• Withdrawal of funding for qualifications with low
or zero enrolments
• Common AO interests represented by FAB/JCQ
UKCES Whitehead Review of
Adult Qualifications in England:
“For individuals the aim is that vocational
qualifications will be valued as a passport into and
through a career; and for employers, the aim is for
vocational qualifications to be a recognised brand”
Matthew Hancock, MP, Minister for Skills, BIS
Whitehead aims:
• Vision for adult qualifications?
• How to achieve it?
• Perceived issues:
 Unused/underused qualifications
 Links to Labour market
 Development times & flexibility of design
 Reducing public funding – increasing need for
employers to invest directly
Whitehead process:
• April – Consultation and review of data
• May – Focus groups and on-line survey
• June – initial report to Minister
• August – final report published
Whitehead AO action:
• FAB is on the case – watch out for
consultation events
• Important that individual AOs & professional bodies
give their feedback
• Direct to UKCES to [email protected]
• Before the 31 May
ECONOMIC
• Avoiding the triple-dip – just!
• Services – led
• Austerity v infrastructure spend?
SOCIAL
 Employment, employment, employment!
TECHNOLOGY
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Vital business enabler
‘lifeblood’ of AO business
Regulatory, RITS, ULN
Highly significant investment
High customer impact
Key differentiator
‘The next big thing?’ – MOOCs?
‘Massive On-line Open Courses’
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Accessible any time
Free
Open content
HE-led at present
High initial volumes
Low completion rates – so far
Future impact ?
MOOCs development stages:
LEGAL:
 AOs operate in highly regulated market – high
stakes game!
 Ofqual sees itself more like an ATC service not
the AAIB!
 Ofqual’s four cornerstones:
Guidance
Sanctions
Monitoring
Entry to the regulated market
ENVIRONMENTAL
• Good business sense!
• Reduction in adverse foot-print
• Impact of technology
• Impact on customers
INTERNATIONAL:
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Opportunities! – e.g.:
Kazakhstan
India
China
Brazil
Worldwide English language tests – . min
2,400 tests pa in at least 40 countries
INTERNATIONAL:
 Key priorities:
 Research,
research, research!
 Use existing supports/resources, eg: British
Council/FAB
 Within powers & scope?
 Single entity?
 Joint venture/partnership?
 Realistic legal & accounting advice
 Ability to manage long distance & long-term
investment
 CARE!
DEMOGRAPHIC
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Youth priorities
Unrealistic expectations
Quality of careers advice/LMI
Ageing population profile
4 country dynamic
Dakota Sioux tribal wisdom:
“When you discover you are riding a dead horse,
the best strategy is to dismount”
Dealing with dead horses, more
common approaches in the UK:
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Buy a bigger whip
Change riders
Form a committee to study the dead horse
Arrange visits to other sites to see how they do it
Spend more on training to improve our riding skills
Harness several dead horses together for increased speed
Provide additional funding to increase horse performance
Hire contractors to ride the horse more cheaply
Appoint a consultant!
Revisit the performance requirements for dead horses
Sell the dead horse to Tesco’s
Promote the dead horse
Remember FAB!
Annual Conference:
• 11th & 12th November 2013
• Chesford Grange, near Warwick
Thanks for listening!
John Mac
 mobile: 07879 477448
 e-mail: [email protected]