Transcript Air Cargo Market Outlook for Africa

Air Cargo Market
Outlook for Africa
Tom Crabtree
Airline Market Analysis - Cargo
Boeing Commercial Airplanes
23 February 2011
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Copyright © 2011 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Copyright © 2011 Boeing. All rights reserved.
The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only.
These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance Actual results may vary
depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than
that intended by Boeing.
2009 Air Cargo Growth by Major Market
World
-11.3%
Intra-North America
Latin America – North America
Latin America – Europe
Europe – North America
Intra-Europe
Middle East – Europe
Africa – Europe
Asia – North America
Europe – Asia
Intra-Asia
South Asia – Europe
Domestic China
-12.6%
-14.5%
-6.3%
-21.0%
-10.7%
-14.9%
-8.0%
-12.9%
-10.3%
-7.5%
-11.3%
12.3%
Copyright © 2011 Boeing. All rights reserved.
World Air Cargo Traffic Growth Has Averaged
6.1% Per Year Since 1970
15%
250
12.1%
10.5%
9.9%
10%
13.3%
12.2% 12.1%
9.6%
10.5%
9.8%
10.1%
10.7%
9.8%
7.8%
12.5%
9.3%
5.8%
6.1%
5.4%
2.4%
11.6%
200
10.3%
7.1%
8.5%
6.4%
6.5%
4.1%
3.7%
5%
12.2%
1.9%
0.9%
2.6%
3.4%3.3%
150
1.9%
0.1%
0%
1970
-5%
1975
-4.1%
1980
1985
1990
-2.1%
1995
2000
2005
-1.8%
100
-5.3%
-10%
-11.3%
50
-15%
-20%
0
% Traffic Change
Actual Traffic, Revenue Tonne Kilometers (RTKs)
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World Air Cargo Traffic, RTKs, billions
% Change in Cargo Traffic, Year-Over-Year
20%
World Air Cargo Grew 20.0% for Jan-Nov 2010
Relative to Traffic Levels for Jan-Nov 2009
Year To Date Air Cargo Growth by Regional Market
43.5%
4.1%
21.1%
7.8%
5.2%
34.4%
20.0%
-0.6%
22.5%
18.3%
World
YTD Year-Over Comparison
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, AAPA, AEA, ATA, and the Boeing World Cargo Forecast.
Copyright © 2011 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Jan - Nov 2010 vs. Jan - Nov 2009: 20.0%
African Air Cargo Activity is Concentrated in
Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Kenya
Airport
Cairo
Nairobi
Johannesburg
Lagos
Luxor
Brazzaville
Cape Town*
Addis Ababa
Kinshasa
Khartoum
Tonnage
Handled
Year 2009
285,839
263,070
252,063
175,828
103,541
88,183
75,361
74,119
67,544
59,299
* Boeing estimate
Sources: Airports Council International (ACI), ICAO, Eurostat and Boeing Research.
Copyright © 2011 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Europe is Africa's Primary Air Trade Partner
North America
7.8%
Africa
6.4%
Middle East
13.2%
Asia
6.2%
Europe
65.6%
Latin America
0.9%
1,559,000 tonnes
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Africa - Europe Air Trade
Has Grown 3.3% Per Year
600
Tonnes, thousands
Africa Exports
Africa Imports
500
Average annual growth,
1999 – 2009
400
Africa imports 4.6%
Africa exports 2.1%
300
1999
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2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Africa - North America Air Trade
Has Grown at 5.9% Per Year
120
Tonnes, thousands
Africa Imports
Africa Exports
90
Average annual growth,
1999 – 2009
Africa imports 8.6%
60
Africa exports 0.6%
30
0
1999
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2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
African Air Imports and Exports to Asia
African air imports from Asia
Chemicals &
related
products
5.0%
African air exports to Asia
Chemicals
and related
products
17.6%
Other
8.7%
Manufactured
goods
33.3%
Other
12.1%
Machinery and
transport
equipment
53.0%
Manufactured
goods
4.6%
85,000 tonnes
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Food and
live animals
28.9%
Machinery
and
transport
equipment
36.8%
11,000 tonnes
Africa to Europe Air Trade
Will Average 4.4% Growth Per Year
Tonnes, thousands
2,000
History
Forecast
High
Base
Low
Average annual growth,
1,500
2009–2029
High 5.8%
Base 4.4%
Low 3.1%
1,000
2.1% growth per year
500
0
1999
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2004
2009
2014
2019
2024
2029
Europe to Africa Air Trade
Will Average 5.7% Growth Per Year
3,000
Tonnes, thousands
History
High
Base
Low
Forecast
Average annual growth,
2009–2029
High 6.4%
2,000
Base 5.7%
Low 5.1%
4.6% growth per year
1,000
0
1999
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2004
2009
2014
2019
2024
2029
World Air Cargo Traffic Will Triple
Over the Next 20 Years
RTKs, billions
800
History
Forecast
High
Base
Low
Average annual growth,
2009 to 2029
600
High
6.6%
Base
5.9%
Low
5.2%
400
1.9% growth per year
200
0
1999
2004
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2009
2014
2019
2024
2029
Asia Markets Will Continue to
Lead Industry Growth
Annual growth, percentage
RTKs, billions
2010 – 2029 RTKs
2009 RTKs
North America-Asia
6.7%
6.6%
Europe-Asia
7.9%
Intra Asia
North America-Europe
4.2%
North America
3.0%
9.2%
Domestic China
5.6%
Europe-Latin America.
North America-Latin America
5.7%
Europe-Africa
5.1%
Europe-Middle East
6.0%
6.5%
Europe-S Asia
Intra Europe
3.6%
0
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Freighter Fleet is Grouped
into Size Categories
Standard-body
Medium Widebody
Large
(< 45 tonnes)
(40 - 80 tonnes)
(> 80 tonnes)
BAe-146
DC-9*
737*
727*
Tu-204
707
DC-8*
757-200
A320*
MD-80*
767*
A300*
A310*
L-1011SF
DC-10*
787
A330*
777-A SF
IL-76TD
*Represents a series
Note: Production and conversion (SF) models assumed for each type unless otherwise specified
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MD-11
747*
777
A350
A380
IL-96T
AN-124
Freighter Fleet Increase
Reflects World Traffic
Total airplanes, percentage
4,000
Large (>80 tonnes)
Medium widebody (40-80 tonnes)
Standard-body (<45 tonnes)
3,000
Total airplanes: 2,967
33%
2,000
Total airplanes: 1,755
27%
27%
1,000
36%
40%
0
37%
2009
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2029
North America Leads in Total Deliveries;
Asia, in Large Freighters
Number of airplanes
1,200
Large (>80 tons)
Medium widebody (40-80 tons)
Standard-body (<45 tons)
800
400
66
63
84
0
North Am erica
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Asia Pacific
Europe and CIS
Middle East and
Africa
Latin Am erica
Boeing Offers a Complete Line of Freighters
300,000
747-8F
125
Revenue Payload, lb
747-400BCF
777F
100
MD-11BCF
200,000
777-200ER BCF
75
777-200BCF
150,000
767-300F
767-300BCF*
100,000
50
767-300ER BCF
757-200SF
737-400SF
25
50,000
737-300SF
737-700C
0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Range, nmi
*Note: Product Development Study
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Revenue Payload, Metric Tons
250,000
Air Cargo Market Outlook for Africa
Summary
 After the worst-ever downturn, world air cargo has made a remarkable
comeback, demonstrating its vital role in global commerce.
 African air cargo markets will expand in the range 5% to 8% per year,
with Europe remaining the primary air trade partner for the continent.
 World air cargo traffic levels will triple over the next two decades, with
long-haul markets linked to Asia leading growth.
 The world freighter fleet will expand by more than two-thirds to nearly
3000 aircraft by 2029. African and Middle East carriers will take delivery
of over 200 freighter aircraft in this timeframe.
 Boeing Offers the Most Complete Freighter Product Line.
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World Air Cargo Forecast 2010-2011
www.boeing.com/commercial/cargo
Copyright © 2011 Boeing. All rights reserved.