Transcript Why the Broiler Industry Dramatically Increased Live Weights

Why the Broiler Industry Dramatically
Increased Live Weights…
and What It Got Us
Michael Donohue
Vice President
Agri Stats, Inc.
2011 PIC Symposium
PIC Symposium 2010 | Nashville, TN
Agri Stats and the Broiler Industry
• Agri Stats – A Benchmarking Tool
– Xerox in the 80’s
– Best Management Practice Programs
• Confidential and Verifiable Identification of
Competitive Strengths and Opportunities
• Action Plans to Improve Costs and
Efficiencies
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Agri Stats and the Broiler Industry
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Started by Jim Cox – 1985
Currently > 95% of U.S. Broiler Processors
Turkey report since 2001 – 90 % Industry Participation
Egg report
Express Markets Inc. (EMI)
Swine report : over 1.8 million sows
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Presentation Topics
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Field Improvements Over Time
The Growth of the ‘Big Bird’ Industry
Seasonal trends in growing ‘big’
Challenges to the sector
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Presentation Topics
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Field Improvements Over Time
The Growth of the ‘Big Bird’ Industry
Seasonal trends in growing ‘big’
Challenges to the sector
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Agri Stats, Inc.
Vital Signs
1988 through 2010
PIC Symposium 2010 | Nashville, TN
Live Wt. (Lbs.)
Average Broiler Wt.
Agri Stats Vital Signs 1988 through 2010
6.25
6.00
5.75
5.50
5.25
5.00
4.75
4.50
4.25
4.00
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Year
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
1.40%
96.0%
1.20%
95.5%
1.00%
95.0%
0.80%
94.5%
0.60%
94.0%
0.40%
93.5%
0.20%
93.0%
0.00%
% Field Condemn
96.5%
19
8
19 8
8
19 9
9
19 0
9
19 1
9
19 2
9
19 3
9
19 4
9
19 5
9
19 6
9
19 7
9
19 8
9
20 9
0
20 0
0
20 1
0
20 2
0
20 3
0
20 4
0
20 5
0
20 6
0
20 7
0
20 8
0
20 9
10
% Livability
Broiler Livability and Field Condemn %
Year
% Livability
% Field Condem n
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
3100
3000
2900
2800
2700
2600
2500
2400
Cal Conv./ live Lb.
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Days to 5.0 Lbs.
Days and Calories Conversion to 5.0 Lb. Live Wt.
Agri Stats Vital Signs 1992 through 2010
Year
Days to 5.0
Adj. Cal Conv./Live Lb.
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
White Meat % of Live
Wt.
White Meat Yield
Agri Stats Vital Signs 1994 through 2010
22.0%
21.0%
20.0%
19.0%
18.0%
17.0%
16.0%
15.0%
14.0%
13.0%
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Year
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Evis. Yield % of Live Wt.
Evis. Yield % of Live Wt.
Agri Stats Vital Signs 1994 through 2010
75
74
73
72
71
70
69
68
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
% Production (65 Weeks)
Agri Stats Vital Signs 1988 through 2010
% HD Production
65%
64%
63%
62%
61%
60%
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Year
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
% Hatchability (65 Weeks)
Agri Stats Vital Signs 1988 through 2010
% Hatchability
85.0%
84.5%
84.0%
83.5%
c
83.0%
82.5%
82.0%
1988
1990 1992
1994
1996 1998
2000 2002
2004
2006 2008
2010
Year
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Presentation Topics
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•
Field Improvements Over Time
The Growth of the ‘Big Bird’ Industry
Seasonal trends in growing ‘big’
Challenges to the sector
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Industry Live Wt. by Bird Sector
7.50
6.50
5.50
4.50
Large Debone
Tray Pack
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
3.50
19
Live Wt. (Lbs.)
8.50
Fast Food
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Large Debone
Tray Pack
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
19
Cents/Lb.
Plant Cost
Fast Food
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Number of Large Bird Deboning Plants
in Agri Stats
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
# of Plants
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Breast Meat Deboning Labor Cost/Lb.
U.S. Large Bird Deboning Plants
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Cents/Lb.
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Breast Meat Efficiencies – Lbs. per Manhour
U.S. Large Bird Deboning Plants
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Lbs./MH
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Breast Meat Deboning – Hourly Wage Rate
U.S. Large Bird Deboning Plants
$15.00
$14.00
$13.00
$12.00
$11.00
$10.00
$9.00
$8.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
$/Hour
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Boneless Breast Meat Yields - % of Live Wt.
U.S. Large Bird Deboning Plants
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
WM Yield
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Breast Meat as a % of Total Evis. Product Mix
U.S. Large Bird Deboning Plants
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% of PMIX
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Bnls Dark Meat as a % of Total Evis. Product Mix
U.S. Large Bird Deboning Plants
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% of PMIX
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Presentation Topics
•
•
•
•
Field Improvements Over Time
The Growth of the ‘Big Bird’ Industry
Seasonal trends in growing ‘big’
Challenges to the sector
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Live Weight (Lbs.)
Changes in Live Wt. Big Bird Deboners
8.4
8.2
8.0
7.8
7.6
7.4
7.2
7.0
20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52
2009
Week
2010
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Days to 5.0 Lbs.
Birds Grown > 7.5 lb. live weight
41.5
41.0
2008
2009
2010
40.5
40.0
39.5
40
41
42
43
44
Week of the Year
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Adjusted Calorie Conversion
Birds Grown > 7.5 lb. live weight
2,650
2,625
2008
2009
2010
2,600
2,575
2,550
40
41
42
43
44
Week of the Year
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Livability
Birds Grown > 7.5 lb. live weight
96.20
96.10
96.00
2008
2009
2010
95.90
95.80
95.70
95.60
95.50
40
41
42
43
44
Week of the Year
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Presentation Topics
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Field Improvements Over Time
The Growth of the ‘Big Bird’ Industry
Seasonal trends in growing ‘big’
Challenges to the sector
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Actual Corn Cost/Bushel
4/2/2011
$8.00
$7.50
$7.00
$6.50
$6.00
$5.50
$5.00
$4.50
$4.00
$3.50
$3.00
$2.50
$2.00
S
N J07 M M
J
S
N J08 M M
J
S
N J09 M M
J
S
N J10 M M
J
S
N J11
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
47.0
45.0
43.0
41.0
39.0
37.0
35.0
33.0
31.0
29.0
27.0
25.0
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
Feed Ing. Cost : Cents/Lb.
Live Cost: Cents/Lb.
Live Cost and Broiler Feed Ing. Cost
September 16, 2006 through April 9, 2011
37 44 51 6 13 20 27 34 41 48 3 10 17 24 31 38 45 52 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 4 11 18 25 32 39 46 1 8 15
Week
Live Production Cost
Feed Ing. Cost
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Cumulative additional cost to the broiler industry in
broiler feed ingredient expense since October 2006
Total over the last 229 weeks $ 19,183,238,256
$20,000,000,000
$16,000,000,000
$12,000,000,000
$8,000,000,000
$4,000,000,000
2/21/2011
12/21/2010
10/21/2010
8/21/2010
6/21/2010
4/21/2010
2/21/2010
12/21/2009
10/21/2009
8/21/2009
6/21/2009
4/21/2009
2/21/2009
12/21/2008
10/21/2008
8/21/2008
6/21/2008
4/21/2008
2/21/2008
12/21/2007
10/21/2007
8/21/2007
6/21/2007
4/21/2007
2/21/2007
12/21/2006
10/21/2006
$0
Additional Cost $
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Cumulative additional cost to the swine industry in
swine feed ingredient expense since October 2006
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Thank you for your Time!
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN