Transcript PowerPoint - Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development at

Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development
University of Maryland
2011
Annual Arab Public Opinion Survey
Survey conducted October 2011 in
Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and UAE
Sample size: 3000
Margin of error: +/- 1.8%
Professor Shibley Telhami, Principal Investigator
Special thanks to the Carnegie Corporation of New York
Mike Lebson, Evan Lewis and Abe Medoff assisted in preparation of this study
Key Findings
The Arab Spring

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Turkey is the biggest winner of the Arab Spring. In
the five countries polled, Turkey is seen to have
played the "most constructive" role in the Arab
events. It's Prime Minister, Recep Erdogan, is the
most admired among world leaders, and those who
envision a new President for Egypt want the new
President to look most like Erdogan. Egyptians want
their country to look more like Turkey than any of
the other Muslim, Arab and other choices provided.
Iran suffered mixed results. More people in 2011
identify Iran as one of the two biggest threats they
face than ever before (18% ), and, in contrast with
2010, a plurality (35%) of those polled now believe
that if Iran acquires weapons of mass destruction it
would be negative for the Middle East. On the other
hand, Iran's President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
remains relatively popular, and most (64%) Arabs
still feel that Iran has the right to its nuclear
program and should not be pressured by the
international community to halt it.
Although France remains relatively popular, it has
suffered a major setback in Arab public opinion in
comparison with the past several years. While 23%
said they preferred France if there were only one
superpower in 2009, this has dropped to only 10% .
This was also matched by a decline of the number of
people who want to live in France (from 36% in
2009 to 28% in 2011). This appears to be related to
the fact that Arabs are divided on the issue of the
international intervention in Libya: A plurality of
Arabs in the five countries polled (46% ) say that, in
retrospect, the international intervention was a
mistake, although there is variation from country to
country.

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Overall, Arabs polled strongly take the sides of the
rebels against the government in Yemen (89%),
Syria (86%), and Bahrain (64%). But there are
regional differences: Those polled in the UAE mostly
favor the government of Bahrain. The Lebanese are
divided on Syria, the Jordanians are divided on
Bahrain, and the Egyptians' support for the rebels in
Bahrain is weaker than their support for the rebels
in Yemen and Syria.
A majority of those polled (55%) are more
optimistic about the future of the Arab world in light
of the Arab Spring, 16% are pessimistic and 23%
feel no change. A majority feel that the Arab Spring
is mostly about "ordinary people seeking dignity,
freedom and a better life," while 19% believe it is
about foreign powers trying to stir trouble in the
region and 16% feel it is about opposition parties or
sects seeking to control governments.
Key Findings
The United States



While a majority of Arabs polled continue to
express unfavorable views of the United States
(59%) the number of those who have favorable
views of the US has increased from 10% in 2010
to 26% in 2011. This improvement could be
related to the perception of the American
handling of the Arab Spring, as 24% of those
polled identified the US as one of the two
countries they believe played the most
constructive role in the Arab Spring.
A majority of Arabs polled (52%) remain
discouraged by the Obama administration policy
in the Middle East, though this is down from 65%
in 2010 and up from only 15% in 2009. A
plurality of those polled (43%) have negative
views of President Obama while 34% have
positive views. This constitutes an improvement
from 2010 for Obama, but a decline from 2009.
When asked about the two steps by the United
States that would improve their views of the US
the most, 55% said an Israeli-Palestinian peace
agreement and 42% said stopping aid to Israel.
The Egyptian Elections*
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
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A plurality of Egyptians (43%) believe that the
military rulers are working to slow or reverse the
gains of the revolution, while only 21% believe
that they are working to advance these gains,
and 14% believe that the military authorities are
indifferent.
Roughly a third of Egyptians say they are likely
to vote for an Islamic party in the Parliamentary
elections.
Of the Egyptian Presidential candidates, Amr
Mousa receives the support of 21% of those
polled, followed by Muhammad ElBaradei and
Ahmad Shafiq.
*Note that these polls measure trends but not necessarily likely
voting behavior. There is little information on the central issue
of likely voters and little precedence. At the local level, Egyptians
vote often on the basis of family/clan loyalty, personality, or other
factors that trump ideology.
Key Findings
The Arab-Israeli Issue
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A majority of Arabs polled (67%) continue to say
that they're prepared for peace with Israel based
on a two state solution along the 1967 borders.
At the same time, a majority (53%) say that
such a solution will never happen. Yet a majority
(54%) also believes that if the two state solution
is no longer on the table, this will lead to a state
of intense conflict for years to come.
Only 20% of those polled believe that a solution
to the conflict will come through negotiations
(down from 40% in 2010). While 39% believe it
will come by being imposed by either the United
Nations or the United States and 20% say it will
come through another war.
Egyptians are divided on the peace treaty with
Israel, with 37% supporting maintaining it, while
35% support cancelling it. The number of
supporters increases to 41% if Israel agrees to a
Palestinian state.
Media
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
Aljazeera Television continues to be identified as
the number one source of international news
among those polled (43%) followed by AlArabiya (14%) and MBC (12%).
There is a marked increase in the percentage of
Arabs who identify the internet as their main
source of international news with 20% saying
that the internet is their primary source of
international news, in contrast to 8% in 2009.
The use of the internet continues to expand
rapidly, with over a quarter of users saying they
acquired access only in the past year, while a
total of over 40% say they've acquired use over
the past three years.
Samples and Polling Dates
Country
Sample
Size
750
Margin of
Error
+/- 3.7%
Start
Date
10/22
End
Date
10/30
UAE
500
+/- 4.5%
10/20
10/31
Morocco
750
+/- 3.7%
10/20
10/31
Lebanon
500
+/- 4.5%
10/20
10/27
Jordan
500
+/- 4.5%
10/20
10/30
Egypt
Polling Cities
COUNTRY CITIES
Egypt
Giza, Cairo, Qaliubiya, Alexandria, Al Minia
(Upper Egypt), Al Ismailiyah (Suez Canal)
UAE
Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Sharjah
Morocco
Casablanca, Rabat
Lebanon
Beirut, Aley, Metn, Baabda, Tripoli, Shouf
Jordan
Amman, Irbid, Zarqa
Arab Awakening
Arab Awakening
Do you believe that the military authorities in Egypt are working to:
(EGYPT ONLY)
Advance the gains
of the revolution
21%
Are indifferent
14%
Slow or reverse the
gains of the revolution
43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Arab Awakening
Looking at the international reaction to the events in the Arab world in
the past few months, which TWO countries do you believe played the
most constructive role?
Turkey
50%
France
30%
United States
24%
China
20%
Britain
11%
Germany
10%
Russia
9%
Japan
8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Arab Awakening
In retrospect, do you believe that the international intervention in Libya
was:
The right thing to do
35%
The wrong thing to do
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Arab Awakening
When you watch events in Syria, are your sympathies mostly with the
government or the rebels seeking government change?
Rebels
86%
Government
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Arab Awakening
When you watch events in Yemen, are your sympathies mostly with the
government or the rebels seeking government change?
Rebels
89%
Government 5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Arab Awakening
When you watch events in Bahrain, are your sympathies mostly with the
government or the rebels seeking government change?
Rebels
64%
Government
24%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Arab Awakening
When you reflect on the Arab Spring, are you more optimistic or more
pessimistic than before about the future of the Arab world?
More optimistic
55%
Feeling no change
23%
More pessimistic
16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Arab Awakening
Thinking about the Arab Spring, is it mostly:
Ordinary people seeking dignity,
freedom and a better life
57%
Opposition parties or sects
seeking to control governments
16%
Foreign powers trying to
stir trouble in the region
19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Egyptian Elections
Egyptian Elections
As you look ahead toward the Presidential elections in Egypt, which of
the following leaders would you like the next President to look like?
(EGYPT ONLY)
Erdogan
38%
Ahmadinejad
11%
Mandela
9%
King Abdullah (KSA)
8%
Sarkozy
6%
Chavez
6%
Nasrallah
5%
Obama
5%
Putin 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Egyptian Elections
As you look ahead toward the Presidential elections in Egypt, which of
the following leaders would you like the next President to look like?
(FIVE COUNTRIES)
Erdogan
31%
King Abdullah (KSA)
9%
Mandela
9%
Nasrallah
9%
Ahmadinejad
8%
Chavez
7%
Sarkozy
5%
Obama
4%
Putin 2%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Egyptian Elections
If Egypt’s political system looked like that of one of the following
countries, which one would you prefer it to be? (EGYPT ONLY)
Turkey
44%
France
10%
Saudi Arabia
8%
China
8%
Germany
8%
United States
5%
Britain
4%
Morocco 2%
Iran
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Egyptian Elections
If the Presidential elections were held today, for whom would you vote
for President? (EGYPT ONLY)
Amro Moussa
20%
Mohammad Al-Baradhi
19%
Ahmad Chafic
17%
Mohammad Salim Al-Awwa
6%
Hazem Salah Bu Ismail
4%
Abdel Munem Abul Futouh
3%
Ayman Nour 3%
Hicham Al-Bastaouissi
Mohammad Ali Bilal
3%
1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Egyptian Elections
If the parliamentary elections were held today, what type of party
would you be likely to vote for? (EGYPT ONLY)
An Islamic party
32%
A liberal party
30%
A pan-Arab party
11%
A nationalist party
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Egyptian Elections
Which TWO of the following figures in Egyptian history do you admire
most? (EGYPT ONLY)
Gamal Abd al-Nasser
40%
Anwar Sadat
39%
Muhammad Ali
36%
Saad Zaghlool
31%
King Farouq
9%
Hasan al-Banna
6%
Husni Mubarak 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
United States
& the Middle East
United States & the Middle East
Generally speaking, is your attitude toward the United States…
Very favorable
2011
2010
2009
4
2
4
Somewhat
favorable
22
Somewhat
unfavorable
21
Very unfavorable
8
11
38
38
36
48
48
United States & the Middle East
How would you describe your views of President Barack Obama of the United
States?
2011
2010
2009
Positive
Neutral
Negative
19
34
39
18
13
43
32
62
24
United States & the Middle East
Which of the following is closest to your views in describing US
President Barack Obama?
2011
2010
Unfavorable view of him and I am
pessimistic about his foreign policy
Favorable personal view of him, but I
don't think the American system will
allow him to have a successful foreign
policy
Favorable personal view of him and I
am hopeful about his foreign policy
55
36
35
41
8
3
United States & the Middle East
How would you describe your attitudes toward the Obama
Administration policy in the Middle East?
2011
2010
2009
Hopeful
20
Neither hopeful
nor discouraged
19
Discouraged
14
47
20
52
31
65
15
United States & the Middle East
What TWO steps by the United States would improve your views of the
United States the most?
2011
2010
2009
Israel-Palestine peace agreement
55
Stopping aid to Israel
42
Withdrawal from Arabian Peninsula
12
Pushing more to spread democracy
11
8
24
33
26
More economic aid to the region
39
47
29
Withdrawal from Iraq
Stopping aid to Arab governments
53
53
43
8
52
6
13
1
7
2
United States & the Middle East
When you look back at the past year of the Obama Administration, which
one of the following policies are you most disappointed with?
2011
2010
Palestine/Israel
46
Iraq
14
Attitudes toward Islam
12
Afghanistan
9
64
26
4
4
Human rights
5
1
Spreading democracy
5
1
Economic assistance
2
1
United States & the Middle East
When you look back at the past year of the Obama Administration, which
one of the following policies are you most pleased with?
2011
2010
Palestine/Israel
Less than 1%
4
Iraq
8
Attitudes toward Islam
7
Afghanistan
Economic assistance
22
2
1
Human rights
Spreading democracy
3
14
9
5
4
17
11
United States & the Middle East
Which TWO of the following factors do you believe are most important in
driving American policy in the Middle East?
2011
2010
2009
Controlling oil
53
47
44
Protecting Israel
Weakening the Muslim world
Preserving regional and global dominance
39
50
32
34
29
36
52
38
25
Promoting peace and stability
8
6
8
Fighting terrorism
8
5
Preventing spread of nuclear weapons
7
Spreading human rights
5
4
4
Promoting democracy
5
4
5
4
13
12
Arab-Israeli Conflict
Arab-Israeli Conflict
Which of the following statements is closer to your view?
2011
Prepared for peace if Israel is
willing to return all 1967 territories
including East Jerusalem, and Arab
governments should put more
effort into this
2009
24
Prepared for peace if Israel is willing
to return all 1967 territories
including East Jerusalem, but Israel
will never give up these territories
easily
Even if Israel returns all 1967
territories, Arabs should
continue to fight
29
43
23
45
24
Arab-Israeli Conflict
Which of the following statements is closest to your view about the
prospects of lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians?
2011
2009
Will happen in the
next five years
Inevitable, but it will
take more time
Don’t believe it will
ever happen
6
10
41
29
53
49
Arab-Israeli Conflict
What do you believe is the likely outcome if the prospects of a two-state
solution in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict collapse?
2011
2009
21
Status quo will continue
One-state solution in
which Israelis and
Palestinians are equal
9
State of intense conflict
for years to come
Palestinians will
eventually surrender
to Israeli power
27
12
54
3
59
1
Arab-Israeli Conflict
A solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that leads to the establishment of a Palestinian
state in the West Bank and Gaza, with East Jerusalem as its capital, will happen only:
2011
Through serious
negotiations
2010
20
By being imposed by
the UN
By being imposed by
the United States
Through another
Arab-Israeli war
It will never happen
24
15
20
16
40
18
11
14
16
Arab-Israeli Conflict
When you look at the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which of the following
issues is the most central to you, assuming that they may all be important:
2011
2010
Establishment of a fully
independent contiguous
Palestinian state in WBG
29
Arab sovereignty over
East Jerusalem
28
Right of Palestinian
refugees to return to their
homes
45
32
37
20
Arab-Israeli Conflict
With regard to the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, would you like to see
Egypt: (EGYPT ONLY)
Maintain the treaty
37%
Modify the terms
6%
Cancel the treaty
35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Arab-Israeli Conflict
If Israel agrees to a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, based
on the 1967 border, with East Jerusalem as the capital, what would your
position be on the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty? (EGYPT ONLY)
Maintain the treaty
41%
Modify the terms 4%
Cancel the treaty
31%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Arab-Israeli Conflict
Which of the following statements is closer to your view: (EGYPT ONLY)
2011
I am prepared for a just and
comprehensive peace with Israel
if Israel returns all the territories
occupied, and Arab governments
should make more efforts
2009
I am prepared for a just and
comprehensive peace with Israel
if Israel returns all the territories
occupied, but they won't give up
territory peacefully
Even if the Israelis return all of
the territories occupied in 1967
peacefully, the Arabs should
continue to fight Israel
28
19
41
47
19
28
Iran
Iran
Do you believe that Iran is merely conducting research for peaceful purposes, or
trying to develop nuclear weapons?
2011
Peaceful purposes
Nuclear weapons
2009
28
33
52
59
Iran
There is international pressure on Iran to curtail its
nuclear program. What is your opinion?
2011
2009
Iran has the right to
its nuclear program
Iran should be
pressured to stop its
nuclear program
53
64
25
40
Iran
If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, which of the following is the likely outcome
for the Middle East region?
2011
2009
More positive
25
Would not matter
25
More negative
28
19
35
46
Iran
Name TWO countries that you think pose the biggest threat to you.
2011
2009
Israel
76
59
United States
Iran
88
71
18
12
Global Perspective
Global Perspective
In a world where there is only one superpower, which of the following
countries would you prefer to be that superpower?
2011
2009
23
China
Germany
14
15
Russia
25
12
7
10
France
23
Pakistan
7
United States
7
8
Britain
5
7
3
Global Perspective
Which world leader (outside your own country) do you admire most?
2011
2010
22
Recep Erdogan
Hassan Nasrallah
13
Mahmoud Ahmadinajad
13
2009
22
4
8
6
14
King Abdullah Al Saud
7
1
Saddam Hussein
6
2
Hugo Chavez
5
Nicolas Sarkozy
5
7
Jacques Chirac
4
5
Barack Obama
4
2
Fidel Castro
3
1
Sheikh M. bin Rashed
3
1
Sheikh M. bin Zayed
3
6
4
14
4
26
6
10
2
5
1
3
Global Perspective
If you had to live in one of the following countries, which one
would you prefer most?
2011
2009
France
28
Germany
22
China
11
United States
10
Pakistan
25
15
Britain
Russia
36
4
2
10
9
5
4
1
Global Perspective
If you had to live in an Arab country outside your own, which country
would you prefer?
UAE
30%
Saudi Arabia
14%
Qatar
12%
Lebanon
10%
Kuwait
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Identity
Identity
When your government makes decisions, do you think it should base its
decisions mostly on what is best for…
2011
2009
Your country
58
Muslims
16
Arabs
14
The world
10
55
20
23
3
Identity
Which of the following is your most important identity?
2011
2009
Citizen of your
country
33
Muslim
31
Arab
Citizen of the
world
38
27
26
9
33
1
Identity
Which of the following is your second most important identity?
2011
2009
Arab
27
Muslim
26
Citizen of your
country
24
Citizen of the
world
11
30
41
24
2
Media
Media
(Among those with access to the internet)
How long have you had access to the internet?
More than 5 years
40%
3-5 years
15%
1-3 years
18%
Less than 1 year
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Media
What’s your primary source for international news?
2011
Television
58
Internet
20
Newspapers /
Magazines
Radio
2009
80
8
14
5
9
3
Media
When you watch international news, which of the following network’s news
broadcasts do you watch most often?
2011
2010
2009
Al Jazeera
43
Al Arabiya
14
MBC
12
LBC
7
38
58
3
5
11
5
4
1