Transcript RENEWABLE ENERGY – Technology & Market Issues

RENEWABLE ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY &
MARKET ISSUES, PRIVATE SECTOR
PARTICIPATION
dev. Needed. Cost of processing, effy.- major issues for
development.
• Solar Value chain >> India has access to high quality
sand but prodn. of refined metallrgcl Silicon costly,
complicated and energy intensive. Big players like
Reliance, Moser Baer setting up wafer fabrication
plants, Reliance for 2.8 BUSD plant to mfr. Ingots,
wafers and modules. India already had cumulative
cap. Of 15 MW of Solar cell in 2007. By 2012, 500
MW cap. envisaged. Other players Tata BP Solar,
Signets Solar etc. 19 Solar PV modules players now in
India. Prdn. Cap. Installed for modules 180 MW in
2008. Projected 4 GW by 2017. India have over 60
• Processed raw material for solar cell, SPV
module, roof tiles (solar cell integrated),
invertors, charge controllers>>would have
huge demand in future.
RENEWABLE ENERGY –
Technology & Market Issues
The total energy from the sun incoming on
the earth is around 174 peta watt which is
many many times more than the total power
demand of all nations.
The global market size according to data
graph group and cleanedge is around 226
BUSD by 2016. This figure only estimated at
55 BUSD in 2006. India FY 2010 about 16,000
MW total RE, 10% of total generation. Approx.
potential wind 49 GW, small hydro 14GW, biomass 27 GW, solar at least 650 GW.
Projected RE in 2050, 70%
 Success of Renewable Energy and its rapid uptake
depends on concern for remaining fossil fuel reserve
and connected issues of import dependence as also
energy security, environmental protection and Govt.
support and financial incentives.
 NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) has
forecast that there will be around 13 MW of CSP
(Concentrated Solar Power) by about 2015. For the
last plan period, PV Solar was forecast to have a
capacity of 20 GW by 2012.
 The cost of solar panels have fallen rapidly,
sometimes > 40%. This is due to scale, process, new
design, innovation, new materials
 Private investment in the wind farms already planned around
4400 MW in wind, about 400 in solar. Attempts are also being
made for installing a 5 MW Geo-thermal Plant in Gujarat.
 Renewable Energy commercialization involves 3 generations
of Renewable Energy : the first one including Biomass Hydel
power and Geo-thermal power are already matured and
competitive.
 2nd generation technologies are market ready and being
deployed at present such as Solar heating, Solar PV, Wind
Power, Solar Thermal and modern forms of Bio-energy.
 3rd generations technologies requires continuous R&D for
such needs as Bio refinery, Hot dry rock Geo-thermal power
and Ocean energy.
 Barriers of policy and political leadership are to be removed.
 98 countries have set up their own targets for their own
Renewable Energy future.
 Total investment in Renewable Energy about 211 BUSD in
2010, up from 160 BUSD in 2009. The top countries were
China, Germany, US, Italy and Brazil.
 India has abundant sun light, average 300 sunny days in a
year.
 Remote area, remote villages are important. Also day-light
farming needs power.
 We have abundance of sun shine, but ignorance about solar
power. Germany which is cloudy many times has largest solar
power installation because of smart governance.
 ROI in desert base plants in barren lands will be much higher.
 In many areas cases, solar energy cheaper than drawing
cables or transmission lines from long distance.
 Nobody believed in the future of laptop, flat screen TV or
mobile which are now high selling items.
 Past 3 years solar panel cost have dropped by half. Reasons
are large scale production, method of production, new
materials etc.
 Some say by 2020 or even earlier, solar electric power will
match the conventional power cost, helped by rising cost of
coal
 The main criterion will always be not the cost of equipment
but the tariff for energy. New and efficient solar panels are
being devised. Also, solar systems are very easily expandable.
 Also must be made popular solar heating and solar lighting.
 Qualified system integrators are must as the accessories such
as inverter, battery etc. have to be chosen very carefully.
 Venture capital funding has stormy relationship with energy
technology. The interest in Renewable Energy is high when
the oil prices high but it dwindles downs again when the oil
prices is lowered.
 About 202 ventures and private equity fund have invested 1.7
BUSD in 165 transactions covering wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, bio-fuel, small scale hydro and small technology.
 Growth rate has been fantastic, solar PV increased 6 fold in 4
years, wind power 2 ½ times etc.
 For barriers in India cost of money is one. Low clarity persists.
• 10 large and medium players are coming in for investment under semi-conductor policy. They include
big names like Reliance Industry, Lanco Solar, Signet
Solar PV Technologies India etc., total investment
running up to 17 to 18 BUSD.
• According to a report of ISA (India Semiconductor
Association) compiled by PwC, there were already 90
companies into Solar PV mfg. in India in 2007>> 9
mfg. solar cells, 19 mfg. PV modules, 60 engaged in
assembly and supply of solar PV system.
• All the above are only partially integrated – lack of
bulk value addition & integration in India.
• Scaling and integration are two major issues
for Indian players.
• India is already seen as a low cost, high-tech
hub for solar component mfr.
• According to one ISA study solar pv costs at
present (about Rs.150/- per Wp) is far more
attractive option for electrification for a village
than extending the grid by around 12 km.
We need the proposed ultra mega power
projects but Renewable Energy in
another 5 years will compete head on
with coal / oil fired units. The challenge
will remain which will mean not
compromising growth by investment in
Renewable Energy, particularly wind,
solar and bio-fuel.
“There
are always better ways of
doing things; our challenge will
remain to find them out”.