Economic Modeling of Returns to Swine Feeding and Management

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Transcript Economic Modeling of Returns to Swine Feeding and Management

Modern Swine Industry

Modern Swine Production is Extremely Complex

Feeding strategies involve

Feed ration formulation – nutrient levels

• • •

Choice of number of rations to feed Choice of time periods for feeding rations Timing and feed concentration of growth promotants (e.g., antibiotics or ractopamine)

Modern Swine Industry (cont’d.)

Marketing strategies involve

Choice of when to “turn the barn” with All In/All-Out system

Optimal target market weights and sort weights

Contracts

Nutrient management / Air Quality

• •

Manure value positive or negative Feed additives (e.g., phytase) affect nutrient absorption

Modern Swine Industry (cont’d.)

Genetic Sources

• • •

Match health in your system Production flow - All-In/All-Out system?

Optimal target market weights and sort weights for these genetics

Marketing Agreements

Packer grids

Managing Inputs

Feed Ingredients, etc.

ALL LINKED!

Economics of Swine Nutrition

• • • • • • •

Cost per ton of feed Cost per unit of lysine Cost per unit of digestible lysine Cost per unit of digestible energy Total feed cost per pig marketed Cost per lb of gain Cost per lb carcass sold

For Every 0.01 improvement in F:G will decrease total feed costs by $0.28-0.30/pig

Boyd, 2008

Phase Feeding

Nutrient Requirements over Time Pigs' Requirement Typical Phase Feeding

Split Sex and Phase Feeding

Split Sex feeding will save $0.50-0.75/cwt

Phase Feeding – How much can it save?

Is more better?

Projected theoretical savings per pig due to increasing the number of diet phases.

Number of Grow-Finish diet phases 2 Diet cost per pig marketed a $42.55

Savings compared to a Two phase program --- Incremental savings per additional diet phase 3 4 5 6 9 12 $41.41

$41.01

$40.67

$40.43

$40.10

$39.90

$1.15 ($1.60) $1.55 ($2.48) $1.89 ($3.02) $2.12 ($3.39) $2.46 ($3.93) $2.65 ($4.24) $1.15

$0.40

$0.34

$0.24

$0.11

$0.06

a Corn=$2.24/bu, 44% SBM = $240/ton; Assumed equal pig performance and feed intake b D.D. Koehler, 1997 (updated to $3.90/bu corn and $315/ton SBM, $900/ton DiCal – BTR 1/2009)

Corn Particle Size

Hammer, Hammer, Roller mills Every 100 Microns reduction improves feed Eff. By 1.2% (7.5-10 lbs of feed/pig) Angle of Repose

Feed Bridging

Management Options

Reduce Selling Weight

Hit the Bottom of the grid instead of the top

IPC – 170-214 lb carcass (230-285 lb Live)

– –

Pigs will be leaner and increase lean premiums Need to be careful not to have too many lights

Discounts 160-170 lb ($2/CWT) then $8 and $12/CWT

What does it cost to leave the Facility Open or less than capacity?

Saves A lot of FEED!

Reduce Selling Weight

Weight 55-210 210-220 220-230 230-240 240-250 250-260 260-270 270-280 280-290 Feed (total), LB 532 34 (566) 35 (601) 36 (637) 37 (674) 37 (711) 38 (749) 39 (788) 40 (828) Feed Savings from 270 lb -110 lb (15%) -74 lb (10%) -37 lb (5%) +39 lb +79 lb

Evaluation of optimal market weights for different pigs • The actual feed intake, BW , backfat and loin depth data were fitted to growth functions for the high lean gain pigs • The average lean gain pigs were modeled to have greater rate of fat accretion and ADFI than the high lean gain pigs. • The low lean gain pigs had the greatest fat accretion – and most rapid decrease in percent lean.

Evaluation of optimal market weights for pigs • The growth, DFI , backfat and loin depth data was applied to three pork processor’s grids – Tyson’s, IPC and Farmland foods. • Corn and soybean meal prices were originally set to 10 yr. average values – corn $2.50 /bushel, 48 % Soybean meal $190/ton and then increased by 20 % to 2.4 times the average values. Pigs were split sex – phase fed.

Predicted Feed Conversion for Three Genetic Populations of Barrows

Predicted Feed Conversion for Three Genetic Populations of Barrows

Relationship of backfat to live weight in three genetic populations of gilts

Optimal Slaughter Weight with Increasing Feed Costs Corn and soybean meal prices were originally set to 10 yr. average values Corn $2.50 /bushel, 48% SBM $190/ton and then increased by 20 % to 2.4 times the average values.

Tyson –Gilts

Farmland -Gilts

Farmland -Barrows

Impact of Pen unloading

Pigs per pen Pigs removed Sq. Ft/pig Start Wt., lb Residual Wt., lb Avg. Final Wt., lb Removed Avg. wt Marginal ADG Marginal F:G Feed cost/30 lb of gain Marginal $/pen 24 0 7.25

249 249 278 0 1.45

4.24

$12.72

$2,707 24 6 9.67

250 244 280 268 1.83

3.76

$11.28

$2,748 24 12 14.5

250 233 270 267 1.84

3.63

$10.89

$2,739

Boyd, 2008

Impact of Pen unloading

Pigs per pen 6 Pigs removed Sq. Ft/pig Total Wt Sold Total Feed Used COV LW at 24 wks Sort Loss, $/pig 27 0 6.85

7598 4366 8.5

3.49

27 20 wks 7477 3524 (19%) 7.2

2.52

27 22 wks 27 20 and 22 wk 7642 7374 4077 (6.6%) 3131 (28.3%) 7.5

2.69

6.4

1.13

Campbell, 2006

Antibiotic and Herd Health Programs

Using the right level and antibiotic

– – –

Is it working for you Can you use something else or none Feed Savings relative to Increased Cost?

Updating Herd Health

Reduce costs long term

Sow Productivity

Weaned PSY $/sow Gestation $197 20 $9.85

22.5

$8.76

25 $7.88

Lactation Total $84 $281 $4.20

$14.05

$3.73

$12.49

$3.36

$11.24

Lb/sow Total Feed 2,175 Lb/pig 109 97 87

Feeding Cull Sows

ADFI, lb MWC1 MWC2 MWC3 MWC4 ADG, lb MWC1 MWC2 MWC3 MWC4 G:F MWC1 MWC2 MWC3 MWC4

Feeding Cull Sows

14 d 28 d 42 d 56 d 70 d 8.07

11.56

11.26

10.19

3.13

4.48

2.98

3.09

0.37

0.41

0.26

0.28

9.52

12.94

12.19

11.68

2.45

3.38

2.29

2.22

0.27

0.28

0.18

0.17

10.43

13.77

12.59

12.63

1.93

2.44

1.76

1.51

0.19

0.17

0.13

0.10

10.80

14.07

12.44

13.04

1.57

1.67

1.39

0.96

0.14

0.09

0.10

0.05

10.63

13.82

11.76

12.90

1.37

1.05

1.19

0.57

0.12

0.04

0.10

0.03

Feeding Cull Sows

Feed costs = $0.09/lb and Fixed costs = $0.25/day Sow prices = $0.33, $0.36, $0.38, and $0.40, for respective MWC

Cull Sows and Paylean (21 d)

• • • • •

Increased ADG (3.15 vs 2.65) Increased G:F (0.29 vs 0.25) No Diff in ADFI Decreased Fat Accretion (0.31 vs 0.41 in.) 10.5 lb more sow weight

Is it cost Effective?

Knauer et al., 2008

Economics of Swine Nutrition and Production

• • • • • •

Cost per ton of feed Cost per unit of lysine Cost per unit of digestible lysine Total feed cost per pig marketed Cost per lb of gain ROI per pig space per day

Lots of variables that can affect profitability!

Questions?