Transcript Kantar Presentation

ROI GROCERY MARKET REVIEW
– Data to 18th March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
OVERVIEW
Market Overview
• The annual market sales are ahead of last year, with
growth of +0.2% year-on-year.
• Over the shorter term, market value has declined
0.5% as shoppers buy more volume despite price
inflation, and compensate by purchasing on offer
and trading down to cheaper lines.
• Consumers are making more shopping trips, but the
average spend per trip has reduced by 3.7%.
• Private label continues to be important as a method
of reducing spend with a market share at 35.4%.
© Kantar Worldpanel
The Irish grocery market is in growth over 52w by just +0.2%. Over 12w, the
grocery market is in decline of -0.5% in comparison to same period last year.
Total Grocery - market value & YoY %chg
€8,884,903
€8,900,643
€000s
€8,946,826
€1,966,316
52 w/e 21
Mar 10
-0.7%
+0.2%
52 w/e 20
Mar 11
52 w/e 18
Mar 12
12 w/e 21
Mar 10
€1,983,684
€1,973,568
+0.9%
-0.5%
12 w/e 20
Mar 11
12 w/e 18
Mar 12
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
Quarterly, the majority of markets falls back while Alcohol has a strong performance
this quarter
12w Total Grocery - sectors value shares & YoY %chg
Share of total trolley
Total Grocery
-0.5
Alcohol*
Ambient Food
28%
Household 7%
Fresh & Chilled
Produce
49%
Frozen 5%
Toiletries 4%
Healthcare 2%
Total Trolley
Alcohol 6%
3.6
Healthcare
Household
Toiletries
Ambient Food
-1.6
-4.4
-6.5
-0.9
Fresh & Chilled
0.3
Frozen Food
0.0
-0.5% value
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
Hot Beverages, Fresh Fish and Chilled Drinks have performed best year on year.
12w Total Grocery - value % chg by category
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
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Alcohol, Drinks and Snacks have the highest proportion of packs sold on deal.
Staples such as Dairy, Bakery and Canned Goods have lower promotional levels
12w Total Grocery - pack % sold on deal by category
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
While inflation is still very evident, it begins to fall back slightly, impacting on
consumer spend
12w Total Grocery – proportion of markets in growth & decline
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
Change in Household Spend and Inflation rate
Household Spend has dropped back by -0.5% YoY as inflation rate slows
% change year on year – 12 weekly period
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
With less disposable income, shoppers are looking for ways to cut back in any way they
can and grocery is no exception
The average individual
disposable income is €21,010
as we enter 2012.
€3,370 less than in 2008,
and €1,150 less than last
year (2010).
Source: CSO Household Budget Survey
9
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
30th Dec 07
27th Jan 08
24th Feb 08
23rd Mar 08
20th Apr 08
18th May 08
15th Jun 08
13th Jul 08
10th Aug 08
07th Sept 08
05th Oct 08
02nd Nov 08
30th Nov 08
28th Dec 08
25th Jan 09
22nd Feb 09
22nd Mar 09
19th Apr 09
17th May 09
14th Jun 09
12th Jul 09
09th Aug 09
06th Sep 09
04th Oct 09
01st Nov 09
29th Nov 09
27th Dec 09
24th Jan 10
21st Feb 10
21st Mar 10
18th Apr 10
16th May 10
13th June 10
11th July 10
08th Aug 10
05th Sep 10
03rd Oct 10
31st Oct 10
28th Nov 10
26th Dec 10
23rd Jan 11
20th Feb 11
20th Mar 11
17th Apr 11
15th May 11
12th Jun 11
10th Jul 11
07th Aug 11
04th Sep 11
02nd Oct 11
30thOct 11
27thNov11
25thDec11
22ndJan12
19thFeb12
18thMar12
Shoppers are buying more volume this year, in order to reduce spend, they are
purchasing on offer and trading down product lines
12w Total Grocery - consumer coping strategies trended
Promotion/Product Change
Store Choice
Inflation
Volume per buyer
HH Spend Change
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
Strong growth in budget products as shoppers trade down price tier
Grocery Volume Growth by Price Brand
Growth in Grocery sales (Volume)
Change in sales
Share of sales
20.0
15.0
14.6
19.3
15.0
Super Premium
20.1
10.0
Premium
5.8
5.0
33.5
-
Good
-1.3
-5.0
Standard
-6.3
14.1
-10.0
Budget (Median
Standard
-50%)
(Median -25%)
Good (Median
price)
Premium
Super Prem
(Median +25%) (Median +75%)
13.1
Budget
% Volume
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
11
© Kantar Worldpanel
0.0%
31 Oct 10
22 Jan 12
25 Dec 11
27 Nov 11
30 Oct 11
02 Oct 11
04 Sep 11
07 Aug 11
10 Jul 11
12 Jun 11
15 May 11
17 Apr 11
20 Mar 11
20 Feb 11
23 Jan 11
26 Dec 10
28 Nov 10
12.0%
03 Oct 10
05 Sep 10
08 Aug 10
11 Jul 10
13 Jun 10
16 May 10
18 Apr 10
21 Mar 10
21 Feb 10
24 Jan 10
27 Dec 09
29 Nov 09
01 Nov 09
04 Oct 09
06 Sep 09
09 Aug 09
12 Jul 09
14 Jun 09
17 May 09
19 Apr 09
22 Mar 09
22 Feb 09
25 Jan 09
28 Dec 08
30 Nov 08
02 Nov 08
05 Oct 08
07 Sep 08
10 Aug 08
13 Jul 08
15 Jun 08
18 May 08
20 Apr 08
23 Mar 08
The prevalence of mechanics such as round euro pricing shows the importance
of deals to the Irish grocery market
Share of sales has
stabilised over the last
year averaging at 11% of
Total Grocery
10.0%
8.0%
% of sales accounted for by round €
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
12 w/e to 22nd Jan 2012
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
Irish households are shopping more often this year, but spending an average of
€0.80 less per trip as a result of promotions and trading down
12w Total Grocery - changes in consumer shopping behaviour
Average frequency
increased by
+3.3%
€6 decrease in
12w spend per HH
(-0.5%)
Average basket
spend reduced by
-3.7%
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
Growth in the number of shopping trips across Ireland continues to put more
emphasis on smaller basket shops
2010
2011
58.7%
58.5%
36.9%
37.3%
4.4%
4.2%
Trolley
Basket
4-9 items
Destination
1-3 items
% of grocery spend
10+ items
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
Private label continues to be important as a method of reducing spend and now sees
the highest share in two years of Irish grocery
12w Total Grocery – PL value%
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
What kind of consumer
trends are we seeing
evidence of?
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
In the current climate, more emphasis is placed on traditional values
Health is becoming
more important in the
minds of consumers
49%: family breakfast (32%)
87%: sunday lunch (72%)
76%: Saturday meal (60%)
62% agree: I try to buy local
More emphasis on
doing our bit for the
economy and buying
local
More emphasis on in
home occasions
61%: nutrition impacts
% of shoppers agreeing to the
statements
Source: KWP lifestyle and attitudes survey 2011
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
UK Market Overview
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
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© Kantar Worldpanel
UK CURRENT THEMES
• Product choice is still the main strategy for trading down
• Inflation still evident in UK grocery and average spend per household is in
growth
• Value Own Label is now gaining from all other tiers
• Own label still remains strong in UK
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
Inflation is also a factor in UK grocery while average spend per household is
in growth
UK Inflation and household spend change
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
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© Kantar Worldpanel
Cheaper products remain the main way for shoppers to manage their spend
4
TRADING UP AND TRADING DOWN STRATEGIES
2
1
0
-1
-2
Volume change
Store Choice
Promotions
18-Mar-12
19-Feb-12
22-Jan-12
25-Dec-11
27-Nov-11
30-Oct-11
12-Oct-11
04-Sep-11
07-Aug-11
10-Jul-11
15-May-11
17-Apr-11
20-Mar-11
20-Feb-11
23-Jan-11
-4
12-Jun-11
-3
26-Dec-10
Contribution to growth %pts
3
Product Choice
Total Grocery 12 we 18 Mar 2012 (KWP P04)
21
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
Cheaper price tiers also seeing growth in UK
Grocery Packs Growth by Price Band
Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)
Change in sales
8.0
Share of sales
6.3
6.0
7.8
10.8
4.7
4.0
Super
Premium
2.0
31.6
0.0
Premium
-0.1
-2.0
Good
-4.0
-3.5
22.3
-6.0
Standard
-6.5
-8.0
-7.9
27.5
-10.0
All
Budget
Purchases
Standard
Good
Premium
Budget
Super
Premium
Share
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
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© Kantar Worldpanel
Shoppers trading down from brands and down the Own Label tiers
NET SWITCHING THROUGH PRICE TIERS IN THE BIG 4 UK RETAILERS
Premium
Own Label
Branded
Standard
Own Label
Value Own
Label
Switching limited to Big 4
retailers and 4 tiers
Total Grocery 12 we 18 Mar 2012 (KWP P04)
23
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 18th March 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel