Transcript Capital investment decisions: 1

MANAGEMENT
AND COST
ACCOUNTING
SIXTH EDITION
COLIN DRURY
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2004 Colin Drury
Part Three:
Information for decision-making
Chapter Thirteen:
Capital investment decisions 1
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.1
1.
2.
The objective is to accept all those investments whose returns are in excess of
the cost of capital.
A firm should invest in capital projects only if they yield a return in excess of the
opportunity cost of an investment (also known as the minimum ate of return,
cost of capital, discount/hurdle rate).
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.2
3. Opportunity cost of investment = returns available to shareholders in
financial markets from investments with the same risk as the project.
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.3a
Compounding and discounting
1. Compounding expresses today ’s cash flows in future values.
FV n = V 0 (1 +K )n
End of year
Interest earned
£
0
0.10 × 100 000
1
0.10 × 110 000
2
0.10 × 121 000
3
0.10 × 133 100
4
Total
investment
£
100 000
10 000
110 000
11 000
121 000
12 100
133 100
13 310
146 410
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.3b
2. Discounting is the process of converting future cash flows
into a value at the present time.
Present value (V0) = FV n
(1 +K )n
3. £121 000 receivable in year 2 has a PV of:
£121 000 = £100 000
(1 +0.10)2
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.4a
The concept of net present value (NPV)
1. By using DCF techniques and calculating PVs we can
compare the return on capital projects with an
alternative equal risk investment in securities traded in
the financial market.
2. The four projects shown below are identical to the
risk-free security illustrated on sheet
13.3. Therefore, they have a NPV of zero.
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.4b
A
£
Project investment
outlay
100 000
End of year
cash flows
Year 1
110 000
Year 2
0
Year 3
0
Year 4
0
Present value = 110 000
1.10
=100 000
B
£
C
£
D
£
100 000
100 000
100 000
0
121 000
0
0
121 000
(1.10)2
=100 000
0
0
133 100
0
133 100
(1.10)3
=100 000
0
0
0
146 410
146 410
(1.10)4
=100 000
3. NPV =PV – Investment cost
4. The decision rule is to accept only those projects with positive NPVs (e.g.if the
investment costs above were less than £100 000 then the projects would be
preferable to investing in financial securities and they would have positive NPVs).
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.5a
Calculating NPVs
1.
NPV = FV1 / (1+K) + FV2/ (1+K)2 + FV3/ (1+K)3 + FVn/ (1+K)n - I0
2. Example (£000’s)
NPV = £300/1.10 + £1 000/(1.10)2 + £400/(1.10)3 - £1 000 = £399.7
or use the discount tables (appendix A)
Year
£000’s
Disc. Factor
PV (£000)
1
300
0.9091
272.730
2
1 000
0.8264
826.400
3
400
0.7513
300.520
1 399.650
Less investment cost
1 000.000
NPV
399.650
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.5b
3. If annual cash flows are constant, the cumulative discount tables
can be used (appendix B):
Example (£000’s)
Cash flows are £600 per annum for 3 years, the discount rate is
10% and the investment outlay is £1 000:
NPV = (£600 x 2.487) - £1 000 = £492.2
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.6
Internal rate of return (IRR)
1.
NPV = FV1 / (1+IRR) + FV2 / (1+IRR)2 + FVn / (1+IRR)n - I0
Example (£000’s)
NPV = £300/(1.31) + £1 000/(1.31)2 + £400/(1.31)3 - £1 000 = 0
2.
2. IRR is approximately 31%. The decision rule is to accept the project if IRR
is greater than the cost of capital.
3.
Example
NPV at 25% = £84.8 (say 85)
NPV at 35% = - £66.53 (say - 67)
Using interpolation:
IRR = 25% + 85/152 x (35%- 25%) = 30.59%
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.7
Fig 13.7
The calculation
of IRR
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.8
Comparison of NPV and IRR
1. NPV is preferred to IRR because:
• IRR can incorrectly rank mutually exclusive projects.
IRR
NPV
%
£
Project A
22
1 530
Project B
18
1 728
• IRR is expressed in percentage terms:
Investment Y (1 year life) yields a return of 50% (I0 =100) =£50
Investment Z (1 year life) yields a return of 25% (I0 =£1 000) =£250
If the remaining £900 from Y only yields £100 then Z is preferable.
• IRR assumes internal cash flows are reinvested at the IRR, whereas NPV
assumes they are invested at the cost of capital.
• Unconventional cash flows (–, + ,–)can result in multiple rates of return.
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.9a
Payback method
1. Measures the length of time that is required for a stream of cash flows from an
investment to Recover the original cash outlay required by the investment.
The payback method suggests A but B has the higher NPV.
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.9b
2. Limitations
• Ignores time value of money.
• Ignores cash flows after the payback period.
3. Widely used
• Simple to understand.
• Appropriate where liquidity constraints exist and a fast payback is required.
• Appropriate for risky investments in uncertain markets.
• Often used as an initial screening device.
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.10a
Accounting rate of return
1.
Calculated by dividing the average annual profits from a project
into the average investment cost.
Project X
Years
Book value
Cash flow
Depreciation
Profit
Average return =
0
£000 ’s
24
1
£000 ’s
16
12
(8)
4
Average profit (3)
Average investment (12)
2
£000 ’s
8
11
(8)
3
3
£000 ’s
0
10
(8)
2
= 25%
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.10b
2. Project Y
Years
Book value
Cash flow
Depreciation
Profit
Average return = 3
12
0
£000 ’s
24
1
£000 ’s
16
10
(8)
2
2
£000 ’s
8
11
(8)
3
3
£000 ’s
0
12
(8)
4
= 25%
3. Project Y also has a 25%return, but the cash flows are received
later and NPV is less than X.
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.11
The effect of performance measurement
Use overhead as transparency
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.12a
The effect of performance measurement
There is a danger that managers will be motivated to choose the
investment that maximizes their performance measure rather than maximizing NPV.
NPV calculations (decision model)
X
£000 ’s
Machine cost initial
outlay (time zero)
Estimated net
cash flow (year 1)
Estimated net
cash flow (year 2)
Estimated net
cash flow (year 3)
Estimated NPV at
10%cost of capital
Ranking
Y
£000 ’s
Z
£000 ’s
861
861
861
250
390
50
370
250
50
540
330
1 100
77
1
(52)
3
52
2
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.12b
Performance measurement criteria
Profits
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Total profits
Return on investments
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Average
X
£000 ’s
(37)
83
253
299
Y
£000 ’s
103
(37)
43
109
Z
£000 ’s
(237)
(237)
813
339
X
%
(4.3)
14.5
88.1
32.8
Y
%
11.9
(6.4)
15.0
6.8
Z
%
(27.5)
(41.3)
283.2
71.5
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.13a
Stages in the capital investment process
1. Search for investment opportunities
 Without a creative search for new investment opportunities
appraisal techniques are worthless
2. Initial screening
 Preliminary assessment to ascertain if projects satisfy strategic and
risk criteria
3. Project authorizations
 Approval by top management committee or lower levels (below
specified ceilings) based on financial appraisal and strategic
considerations.
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury
13.13b
4. Control during the installation stage
 Periodic reports required on over/under spending relative to stage
of completion, estimated costs to complete and estimation completion
date compared with original estimates
5. Post-completion audit
 Involves a comparison of the actual results with those included in
the investment proposal.
 Difficult to undertake because it is not easy to isolate the actual
cash flows that stem from individual projects.
 Recriminatory post-mortems should be avoided.
Management and Cost Accounting, 6th edition, ISBN 1-84480-028-8
© 2000 Colin Drury
© 2004 Colin Drury