Decisive Event Planning

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Transcript Decisive Event Planning

DEPLOYABLE JOINT FORCE HEADQUARTERS
JOINT MILITARY APPRECIATION
PROCESS
(JMAP)
DJFHQ Adaptation and
Implementation
Why Bother
* I don’t work at this level.
* I’m in a Service or Unit that doesn’t use this
process for very good reasons.
* It’s just more bloody theory anyway - only
ever used at Training Institutions.
Why Bother
* Well it isn’t just theory any more. We are in
the busiest operational planning period of
my career.
* Similar processes are used by Defence
Forces around the world.
* You must certainly modify it to suit your
purposes but directions you are likely to
receive have been formulated using this
process so it best to get to grips with it.
I promise:
* As little doctrine as possible.
* Personal views based on either operations or
major exercises.
* A joint perspective.
A lecture is the process by
which the notes of the lecturer
become the notes of the
students, without passing
through the minds of either.
R.K. Rathburn
An expert is one who knows so
much about so little that he can
neither be contradicted, nor is
worth contradicting
Henry Ward
Preliminary
Scoping
STEP 1:
MISSION
ANALYSIS
JMAP
Comd’s Guidance
STEP 2:
Course of Action
DEVELOPMENT
JIPB
STEP 4:
DECISION &
EXECUTION
Modified COA’s
STEP 3:
Course of Action
ANALYSIS
Deficiencies/Requirements
* Situational Awareness across the staff
* Linkages between Components, BOS and
staff functions
* Utility of current products - Inputs/Outputs
* Gap between Mission Analysis and COA
Development
* Time Management
I took a speed reading course
and read War and Peace in
twenty minutes.
Its about Russia.
Woody Allen
Planning Groups
*
*
*
*
*
Commander’s Planning Group
Joint Planning Group
Joint Admin Planning Group
Joint Intelligence Planning Group
Joint Surveillance and Targeting Planning
Group and Targeting Board
Preliminary
Scoping
STEP 1:
MISSION
ANALYSIS
JMAP
Comd’s Guidance
STEP 2:
Course of Action
DEVELOPMENT
JIPB
STEP 4:
DECISION &
EXECUTION
Modified COA’s
STEP 3:
Course of Action
ANALYSIS
PRELIMINARY SCOPING
* Situation update/Forces Available - a need
for the reintroduction of relative strengths.
* Strategic/Higher direction - clarity and
focus are the essential requirements.
* Commander’s initial guidance
* Planning timeline
* Division of responsibilities
Preliminary Scoping
* The initial CPG Meeting
 Incorporating
 Set
the components
the focus for IPB
 Determine
 Establish
the initial staff effort
the time management
Time Management
Time Management
MISSION ANALYSIS
20%
MISSION ANALYSIS
50%
COG / DE CONSTRUCT
10%
MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF
30%
COMD GUIDANCE
10%
COA DEV
30%
BROAD COA DEV
20%
SCHEME OF MANOUEVRE
50%
COA DEV BRIEF
20%
COMD GUIDANCE
10%
COA ANALYSIS
30%
PREP FOR WARGAMING
20%
WARGAMING
60%
PROD OF SYNCH /
DSM 10%
COMD GUIDANCE
10%
DECISION / EXECUTION
COA COMPARISON
DECISION BRIEF
COMD GUIDANCE
10%
10%
70%
20%
ORDERS PRODUCTION
WRITE ORDER
EDIT BY J5 / J3
EDIT BY COFS
EDIT BY COMD
REPRODUCTION / DISTR
10%
60%
15%
10%
5%
10%
Intelligence Preparation of the
Battlespace
* Getting the composition of the JIPG right.
 For
example - the need for joint logisticians
* The utility of higher level product. Country
studies vs the need for an analysis of
strategic and operational level COG.
* The ability to analyse and articulate the
intangible.
Mission Analysis
* COG Construct considered earlier than
COA Dev
* Proposed Decisive Events and Draft Comd’s
Intent (Method Statement)
* Improved Situational Awareness
* Preparation for COA Development
 Decisive
Event linkages
And a chance for the staff to
think on their feet under
pressure
Did they pass the Charles De Gaulle
test?
Charles De Gaulle looked like a
female llama surprised in her
bath.
Winston Churchill
CRITICAL VULNERABILITY
ANALYSIS
COG
CA PABI LIT Y T O GEN ERAT E SUPER IOR COM BAT POWER
CRITICAL
CAPABILITIES
CRITICAL
REQUIREMENTS
ARMOUR
DOCTRINE
C2
OPEN
TERRAIN
T72 WEAPON
SYSTEM
•Terrain restricts
ability to manvr
•Vuln to tactical
obstacles
•Lack of fire
posns to spt aslt
•T72 outranged
by M1A2
•No thermal
imaging, vuln to
smoke
obscuration
CRITICAL
VULNERABILITIES
OFFENSIVE FIRE SUPPORT
CSS
INFANTRY
SPT
•Vegetation
favours inf, vuln
to separation
•different ni
fighting
capability
between mech
inf and tanks,
vuln to
separation at ni
DOCTRINE
OBSERVATION
•Lack of ni
observation
devises
•Lack of
suitable OPs to
spt aslt
C2
CSS
2S1 & 2S3
WEAPON
SYSTEMS
•Outranged by
fr arty, vuln to
CB
•Limited 1st
line ammo
The enemy COG is his ability to generate combat power. I intend to negate this COG through
disruption of the enemy’s ability to observe and direct fire by the denial of key terrain suitable for
OPs. I will dislocate the enemy combined arms team by a combination of tactical obstacles and
the siting of positions to maximise the constraining effects of the ground and the range advantage
of my anti-armour weapons. Finally, I will disrupt his ability to fight dismounted by encouraging an
attack at night over terrain suitable for concentrated direct and indirect fire.
Example CJTF Operational COG
Force Projection
ASSESSED
OPERATIONAL
COG
PHASES
TACTICAL COG
CRITICAL
VULNERABILITIES
(From GCB until Lodgement)
Transit
Focal Area
Lodgement
Forced Passage
CVBG/
ARG
Int
Assets
ARG
CVBG
Morale
Ability to
sustain ops
WLS Essex
Ability to
detect
deception
Ltd number
strike acft
Casualties
MCM
CAS/CAP
Weather
Fire spt
AOR
SLOC
Attack helo
COG construct
* Threat Targetable Critical Vulnerabilities
 Targeting,
Collection Plan, RSI
 IO planning
 Templated - matrix approach early in process
 Can be qualified by
BOS to deliver effect
 Time or Phase
 Close, Deep, Rear

* Utility across the whole staff. Basis of the
common understanding of the en and the
effect we want to have on him
COG construct
* Friendly forces
 Vulnerabilities
 EEFI
 Force
- Force Protection tasks
- OPSEC, CI, and IO planning
ratio comparison in key capabilities,
strengths vs weaknesses.
Decisive Event Planning
* What events must I successfully
achieve to target the enemy’s
critical vulnerabilities and achieve
my superior commanders intent ?
Decisive Event Planning
* Two key elements combined to ensure
success (Defeat en and meet Comd’s Intent)
 Target
en weaknesses to get to his COG
 Complete tasks to meet superior Comd’s Intent
* Determine which of the CVs we are able to
Target and have an effect on
* Review of the Essential Tasks
COA Development
* Focus shifted to targeting as a “driver”
* Decisive Events and effects on TCVs
* Key input from BOS planners - effect
COA Development
* Lines of operation through Decisive Event
combinations
COA Development
* Time compressed planning - modification
* COA Dev ends with Hasty Wargame and
brief of results
* Detailed preparation and synchronisation of
one COA
Targeting at DJFHQ
* Targeting at DJFHQ incorporates lethal and nonlethal targeting.
* Aims to integrate the RS&I effort with the
exploitation effort and BDA, which in turn
informs the continuing targeting effort in support
of the overall plan.
The Targeting Working Group
(TWG)
* The TWG, headed by the J9, integrates the
targeting plan with the JMAP and is one of the HQ
key working groups
* The TWG comprises core targeting and TA staff
with augmentation from SMEs, and LOs for the
full gambit of RS&I assets, and lethal and nonlethal exploitation assets.
* The inputs and outputs between the TWG and the
JPG during the JMAP are shown in the following
slides.
TWG Inputs and Outputs to
the JMAP
JMAP Step
IPB
Mission
Analysis
Output From JMAP
Input to JMAP
HVTs from tgt relative value analysis
Vulnerable nodes from COG Construct
Specified and implied tgt tasks and limitations
including RS&I
Restricted targets
ROE
Targeting asset ORBAT
Mission
Analysis Brief
Comd’s
Comd’s targeting guidance
Guidance
(should be conceptual to allow staff FOA)
Include any specific tgt guidance for each
COA
COA
Development
Recommended Comd’s
targeting guidance
Targeting plan to spt each
COA including:
 HPTL
 RS&I Plan
 AGM
TWG Inputs and Outputs to
the JMAP Contd...
JMAP Step
Wargame
Output From JMAP
Input to JMAP
Modifications to the
Targeting Plan incorporated into the
targeting plan from the wargame.
wargame for each COA This includes a description of anticipated
targeting results that shape the battlefield
prior to commencing any boxed events.
Planned targeting tasks will normally lead
each blue force phase in the wargame, while
concealed HPTs will be dealt with as a
reaction or counteraction (depending on who
has the initiative) when they are unmasked.
Decision and Selection of the COA
The Targeting Plan (with any modifications from
Execution
with any modifications wargaming) for the chosen COA is incorporated into
the orders.
Promulgation of the targeting plan includes the AGM,
and RS&I Plan as separate annexes as well as
specifying tasks in the groupings and tasks
paragraphs.
Course of Action Analysis
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
War gaming to endstate
Throughout the battlespace
Identifies adv and disadv of COA
Identifies Risk
Identifies Comd’s Decisions
Synchronises capabilities
Identifies NAI and TAI
Establishes the key logistic requirements
Course of Action Analysis
* Dry synch and preparations are essential
* Synchronisation and Decision Support
Matrix
* Production of Operational timeline - Battle
Management
Decision and Execution
* Review of Products
* Less cumbersome OPORD
* Proposed changes to:
 Task
Organisation Matrix
 Synchronisation Matrix
 OPORD body
* Better use of Graphics
Hitler’s original title for Mein
Kampf was Four and a half
Years of Struggle against Lies,
Stupidity and Cowardice.
Everyone needs an editor.
Tim Foote
Conclusion
* DJFHQ has embraced the JMAP and Decisive
Event Planning
* Improving Situational Awareness through
using TCVs and Decisive Events is the basis
for the common understanding of Comd’s
Intent
* Linkages between planning groups,
Components, BOS and advisors remains the
area for focus
And for all that there will be
times when your views about
the JMAP will be similar to
Mr Thomas’s views about
Welsh Nationalism
When asked his opinion of
Welsh nationalism, Mr Thomas
replied in three words, two of
which were “Welsh
nationalism”.
Dylan Thomas