Transcript WATER, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

WATER, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE:
IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY
Bakhshal Lashari, PhD, Post Docs
Professor/Director
Institute of Water Resources Engineering and Management
Mehran University of Engineering and Technology,
Sindh Pakistan
One Day Colloquium on
“Water Crises and Choices: Post Flood Scenario”
University of Agriculture Faisalabad
January 10, 2011
Water: Source of Life, Food and Fiber
Water also brings miseries
Hurricane Katrina (Sept. 2005)
Kenya Drought (Spring 2006)
China Drought (Spring 2010)
Flood in Pakistan
(Aug. 2010)
Water and Energy
• Energy production needs a lot of water
– ~ 25 gallons per kWh
– ~ 39% of freshwater withdrawals in USA (excluding
hydropower demand) are for thermoelectric plants (136 bgd)
Per-Capita Freshwater Availability (2000)
Precipitation Variability
Virtual Water Use
1 kg grain ≡ 1000 l of water
1 kg beef ≡ 15,000 l of water
• Meaty American and European diets
– 5,000 l of water/day
• Vegetarian African and Asian diets
– 2,000 l of water/day
• Meat consumption in China
– 20 kg (1995) & 50 kg (2009)
• Dietary habits difficult to be reversed!!
Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology
• Intensification of the hydrological cycle
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More floods and droughts
More variability in rainfall
Shorter snowfall season
Early spring snowmelt
Accelerated glacial melting
• May affect water availability, water quality, ecosystems, etc.
IPCC (2007) Freshwater Resources and their Management
DROUGHTS:
SOME RECENT OCCURRENCES
Drought in, Water Surplus, Southwestern China
(Spring 2010)
Satellite Observations
(20 March, 2010)
Dark red shows severest drought. Most
parts of Yunnan and Guizhou
provinces suffered from the severest
droughts. The drought was classified
into five grades: severest, severer,
moderate, mild, and normal.
Land, Rivers and Water Transportation During China
2010 Drought
Affected:
60 mn people
12 mn livestock
5 mn hect. crops
Cost = $3.5
billion
Severe Drought Fires in Russia
(2010)
FLOODS:
SOME RECENT OCCURRENCES
2010 Flood in China
15-21 June
6-12 July
Severity:
3000 Deaths; 1100 Missing
13 Aug. 2010
305 mn people; 1.36 mn Houses
28 Provinces
100,000 sqkm. Land
$ 41 bn in Damages
Pakistan 2010 Floods
(Worst Natural Disaster Ever: U.N.)
Severity:
2000+ Deaths
20 mn People Affected
1 mn Houses Damaged
160,000 sqkm. Land
$ 6 bn in Damages
$45 bn Total Economic
Impact
Total Rainfall During
1 July to 23 Aug.
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Some facts in Pakistan’s context
Per capita Fresh water availability
1600
300
1400
1200
200
1000
800
150
600
100
400
50
200
0
0
1998
2005
2010
Water availability
2015
Population
2020
2025
Population(millions)
Water availability (m3/person/year)
250
Water storage capacity per person per
year
Wheat yield
• Pakistan has good,
abundant sunshine
and excellent farmers
• Yet crop yield per ha
and cubic meter is
much lower than
international
benchmarks
Sindh’s Context
Waterlogging
Canal Diversion
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01
1999-00
1998-99
1997-98
1996-97
1995-96
1994-95
1993-94
1992-93
1991-92
Waterlogging Area (1000 ha)
3000
60
2500
50
2000
40
1500
30
1000
20
500
10
0
0
Canal Diversion (MAF)
Canal Diversion and Water logging
in Sindh
How Engineers supply Irrigation
Water?
2.00
Head
1.80
1.60
1.40
DPR
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Middle
Tail
14-Mar
9-Mar
4-Mar
27-Feb
22-Feb
17-Feb
12-Feb
7-Feb
2-Feb
28-Jan
23-Jan
18-Jan
13-Jan
8-Jan
3-Jan
29-Dec
24-Dec
19-Dec
14-Dec
9-Dec
4-Dec
29-Nov
24-Nov
19-Nov
14-Nov
9-Nov
4-Nov
30-Oct
25-Oct
20-Oct
15-Oct
Water supply and CWR (in/day)
How Farmers are using it?
Water supply and crop water requirements
0.3
0.28
0.26
0.24
0.22
0.2
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
Expenditure Trend on System Maintenance
Future water need for Sindh
Population
Water
Million
MAF
2009
41.23
48.76
40.5
4.9
3.4
2025
52.6
72.0
59.8
7.2
5.0
Year
Water Use (MAF)
Irrigation Industry
Home
Future water need in Sindh
Average water availability
(1991-2009)
41.76 MAF
Shortfall (as per water accord)
7.0 MAF
Water need in 2025 (Projected)
( irrig 83%, Ind 10% Mun 7%)
72.0 MAF
Short fall in 2025 (about)
30.0 MAF
Groundwater available
5 MAF
Net shortfall in 2025
25 MAF
Water Resources: Issues
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Water storage
Flood and Drought due to climate change
Lack of Institutional Coordination
Knowledge gap/Capacity
Low Irrigation Delivery and Application
Efficiencies
• Drainage and Salinity Problems
Water Management: Issues
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Enforcement of Regulations
Changing Cropping Pattern
Deteriorating Irrigation Infrastructure
Inequitable Distribution of Water
Sea water intrusion-Coastal area
Deterioration of groundwater
Pollution of Wetlands-Lakes
Water Resources: Challenge
• Two Main challenges
– Enough water of good quality:
• to all people,
• at all places,
• at all times and
• at an affordable cost
– Sufficient resilience against floods and droughts
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SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES
MANAGEMENT
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Integrated Water Resources Management
(IWRM)
• Simultaneous consideration of:
– Surface and groundwater
– Quantity and quality
– Watershed and water bodies
– Hydrology, hydraulics, environment, policy and
socio-economics
– Multiple sectors, stakeholders, and decision
makers
Strategies for Sustainable
Water Use
CONSERVATION
DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL
SOURCES
EFFICIENT
USE
•DESALINATION
WATER
SUPPPLY
TREATMENT
REUSE
RECYCLE
IWRM
The Way Forward!
• Innovative, revolutionary, and selfsustaining programs
• Diverse and multi-institutional partnerships
• Pricing and valuing water for enhancing
water-use efficiency
• Strongly integrated planning for water,
energy and agriculture
• Robust regional-capacity building
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Thanks