Transcript Libia, Syria, Ukraine

Recent/current crises:
LIBIA, SYRIA,
UKRAINE
Giovanni Marizza
[email protected]
21 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.00
THE LIBYAN
CRISIS
(2011)
1st precedent:
War between Italy and the
Ottoman Empire, 1911
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Casus belli: humanitarian reasons (slavery)
True reason: preventing a German intervention
(France occupying West, UK East)
29 Sept. 1911: war declaration without informing
the Parliament
Collateral damages: civilians killed at Sciara Sciat
Mercenaries, arms trafficking, guerilla warfare
Air bombing
Consequences: balkanic wars and WW1
2nd precedent:
Suez crisis, 1956
2nd precedent:
Suez crisis, 1956
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Nasser: nationalization of the Canal
London, Paris: occupy the Canal
No consultation within NATO
Casus belli: Israeli intervention, ultimatum
to Israel and Egypt
USA irritated (colonialist enterprise)
3rd precedent: Lockerbie
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21 Dec 1988: Flight Pan Am 103 FrankfurtDetroit. 259+11=270 victims (terrorist attack
organized by the Libyan Government)
4th precedent:
Italy-Libia agreement, 2010
Italy-Libia agreement,
Bengasi, 30 August 2010
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End of post-colonial contentious
Advantages for the Italian enterprises in Libia
Selex: satellitar system (border control)
Cooperation between Civil Aviations
Building new railways
Building new electric nets
Building a new subway in Tripoli
Fighting illegal immigration
Energy (gas, oil)
5th precedent:
FR-UK agreement, 2010
Lancaster House Agreement
2 Nov 2010
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Common expeditionary Corps
Mutual support with 2 aircraft carriers
Joint maintenance of Air Force
Cooperation (military technologies)
Common Center for nuclear tests
5 precedents +
energy resources
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= WAR
“Odissey
Dawn”
“Harmattan”
“Ellamy”
Ineffective sanctions:
-individual resources blocking,
-oil export embargo,
-naval embargo,
-NFZ
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“Europe is a nation
composed of many
nations: the state who
wants to improve its
strength at the expenses
of neighbouring states,
usually becomes weaker
itself” (Charles de
Montesquieu, 16891755)
May 2014
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14 May: Valentine’s coup
17 May: Disorders in Benghazi,
Tripoli: Parliament attacked by the militias
of Gen. Khalifa Haftar, anti-Islamist
80 dead
KH: former CinC Libyan Army (vs Chad)
Government: it’s a coup, Haftar is a CIA
agent!
Militias: never disbanded
THE SYRIAN
CRISIS
Latin Eastern Kingdoms:
Tortosa
TORTOSA, today TARTUS
1099: conquered by the Crusaders, capital city of the Tripoli County
1183-1291: Logistic
naval base of the Templar Knights
Alawites: minoritarian religious
faction
Majority: Sunni Muslims
Other religious/ethnic minorities:
Shi’a, Christians, Druse,
Kurds…
Regime: supported by Iran
(Shi’a country)
Opposition: supported by
Turkey and Sunni Muslim
countries
Intervention of international
community:
Libia yes, Syria not.
Why?
Oil and gas:
in Libia yes, in Syria not
-Libia internationally isolated,
-Syria: involvement of Russia,
China, Iran, Hezbollah…
-Libia: no strategic importance
-Syria: yes (bordering with
Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon,
Israel)
Kurdish problem, like in Turkey,
Iran and Iraq
UNSC: consensus about Libia
possible, about Syria impossible
Russia: Tartus naval base
30 April 2013:
“USA has evidence of use of chemical weapons by
the Assad regime”
Chemical Weapons (WMD?)
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Who assisted Syria’s regime in developing
chemical weapons? Russia, Egypt, Iran?
21 Apr 2013: 1.000 civilians killed in
Damascus suburb of Ghouta (the regime
denies responsibility)
Chemical Weapons (situation)
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OPCW transporting toxic materials from 23
sites to Latakia (22 Apr: 86,5%)
Next destination: Gioia Tauro (IT), then
MV Cape Ray, equipped with 2 hydrolysis
units for neutralizing the stuff in
international waters (60 days of work)
Deadline: 30 June 2014
Hidden stocks? (to be used in order to
blame the rebels)
SO FAR:
160.000 VICTIMS
3 June: presidential elections
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Organized by the regime
Who will oppose Mr Assad?
With one third of Syrians displaced?
Smart Crisis Management!
THE
UKRAINIAN
CRISIS
Historic cornerstones:
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1917: WW1, a separated peace treaty Germany-Russia
gives Ukraine to Germans (Soviet Republic of DonetskKrivoy Rog),
1918: WW1, the American intervention defeats the
Germans and Russia regains Ukraine,
1919: Ukraine becomes part of Soviet Union
1921-1939: part of Poland
1954: Kruscev, an ethnic Ukrainian, gives Krimea to
Ukraine,
1991: Ukraine independent (Sevastopol naval base with
special status), communist party illegal,
2004-2010: Yushenko, Yanukovic, Timoshenko… Orange
revolution
Principle of
nationality
Movement of
populations /
boundaries
Role of IOs
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UN: absent (Russia: P5 member)
OSCE: absent (contrasting principles)
NATO: July 1997, NUC
EU: June 2003, European Neighboring Policy
Role of IOs
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UN: absent (Russia: P5 member)
OSCE: absent (contrasting principles)
NATO: July 1997, NUC (COOPERATION)
EU: June 2003, European Neighboring Policy
(SEPARATION)
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Risk: balkanization
Suggestion for the final thesis:
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The role of IOs in solving today’s
crises (Libia, Syria, Ukraine)
Suggestion for the final thesis:
The role of IOs in solving today’s
crises (Libia, Syria, Ukraine)
 A new tool of Crisis Management:
Ineffective Sanctions
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Suggestion for the final thesis:
The role of IOs in solving today’s
crises (Libia, Syria, Ukraine)
 A new tool of Crisis Management:
Ineffective Sanctions
 The importance of Russian Naval
Bases in recent crises (Syria and
Ukraine)
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Recent/current crises:
LIBIA, SYRIA,
UKRAINE
Giovanni Marizza
[email protected]
21 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.00