Transcript Calibration of St. Johns River Watershed Hydrology Models

Calibration of St. Johns River
Watershed Hydrology Models
Tim Cera, P.E.
Senior Professional Engineer
Calibration Process
Meteorologic
Inputs
Input
Observations
Watershed
Model
(Representation)
Model Results
Parameters
Watershed
Adjust
Calibration
Output
Observations
Accept
Calibrated
Model Results
System Results
Meteorologic Input
Meteorologic
Inputs
Input
Observations
Rain
Hourly record over 18 stations
12 year calibration period
Evaporation
Consistent methodology over 16
stations (Hargreaves)
Rain
Meteorologic
Inputs
Input
Observations
 Point


rain gauges
Daily
Hourly
 Assigned
polygons
to sub-watershed by Thiessen
Evaporation
Meteorologic
Inputs
Input
Observations
 Estimated

using Hargreave’s equation
Min and max daily temperatures
 Correction
factor to Penman-Monteith
method
 Assigned to sub-watershed by Theissen
polygons
Watershed Description
Watershed
Model
(Representation)
Parameters
Land use (1995)
Watershed and subwatershed
boundaries
Watershed
Standard groups
Determined from elevations,
hydrologic network, and other
factors
Flow Observations
 Primarily
USGS stations
 Rating curve estimating flow from stage

Sometimes uses velocity as additional
index
Output
Observations
System Results
Weight of Evidence
 Annual
runoff volume
 Monthly runoff volume
 Mean runoff volume over entire period
 Daily flow time-series
 Flow exceedance curves
 Deep recharge
Output
Observations
System Results
Parameter Common Logic
Watershed
Model
(Representation)
Parameters
 Developed


parameter ranges based on
Understanding of HSPF
Understanding of Florida hydrology
Calibration
Watershed
Model
(Representation)
Model Results
Parameters
Adjust
Calibration
Accept
Calibrated
Model Results
Output
Observations
Parameter Estimation
 Parameter


ESTimation (PEST)
HSPF utilities
Training
 Assist
in the optimization of model
parameters (Adjust and Accept)


Rapidly assess more parameter
combinations
Evaluate interactions between parameters
 Sometimes

requires hundreds of runs
Parallel processing
Calibration
 Calibrated



51 watersheds
1995-2006 inclusive
1995 land use
1995 operation of Upper Basin Projects
 Peer
review
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St. Johns River
Basin
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Calibration gage
Calibrated sub-watersheds
Ungauged sub-watersheds
Sub-watersheds
Input - observed flow
Input - detailed C-1 model
Non-contributing area
0 10 20
40 Miles
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Peer Review Recommendations
Re-examine consistency between 1995 and
2030 land use
 Decrease percent impervious area
 Increase retention storage for impervious
areas
 Re-examine saturated zone groundwater
transpiration
 Implement surface storage

Re-Calibration
 Implementation
of peer review
recommendations led to a complete recalibration of the models
Fort Drum – 6A
Statistic
Observed
Daily Flow (mgd) (USGS:02231342)
Average
34.62
Median
9.69
Variance
5217.99
Standard Deviation
72.24
Skew
4.90
Kurtosis
33.74
Minimum
-0.00
Maximum
907.18
Range
907.18
Simulated
34.17
9.81
4707.64
68.61
4.49
29.55
0.00
972.44
972.44
Monthly Rainfall/Hydrograph
Average Monthly Flow
Flow Exceedance Probability
3
2
0
PABLO CREEK
ORTEGA @ KIRWIN ROAD
ORTEGA
BIG DAVIS CREK @ BAYARD
NF BLACK CREEK
SF BLACK CREEK
ETONIA CREEK
RICE CREEK
SIMMS CREEK
DEEP CREEK AT SPUDS
DEEP CREEK AT HASTINGS
LITTLE HAW CREEK
MIDDLE HAW CREEK
ALEXANDER CREEK @ CR 445
ALEXANDER CREEK @…
BLACKWATER CREEK @…
WEKIVA @ SANFORD
LITTLE WEKIVA
LITTLE WEKIVA
HOWELL CREEK @ SLAVIA
HOWELL CREEK @ SR 434
GEE CREEK @ LONGWOOD
SOLDIER CREEK @…
DEEP CREEK @ OSTEEN
ECON @ MAGNOLIA
LITTLE ECON @ UNION PARK
LITTLE ECON @ SR434
ECON @ CHULUOTA
ST JOHNS @ CHRISTMAS
ST JOHNS @ COCOA
TAYLOR CREEK
WOLF CREEK
ST JOHNS @ MELBOURNE
SIXMILE CREEK
JANE GREEN
S 96 B
S 96C
BLUE CYPRESS
FT DRUM
CRABGRASS CREEK
HATCHET CREEK
LITTLE HATCHET CREEK
BEE TREE CREEK
NEWNANS LAKE
LOCHLOOSA CREEK
LOCHLOOSA LAKE
ORANGE LAKE
APOPKA
OCKLAWAHA @ CONNER
LOWER ORANGE CREEK
Average Areal Discharge (cfs/sqmi)
Areal Discharge Rate
Obs Discharge
Sim Discharge
6
LSJRB
* Includes spring flow
*
*
*
+ Includes spring & treated wastewater
LKGB
MSJRB
USJRB
+
+
OCKRB
5
4
*
+
*
1
Calibration Performance
 Statistical

Nash-Sutcliffe



measures
1 is perfect fit
0 if the model was equal to the average
observed value
Percent error of the mean
Calibrated
Model Results
System Results
Calibration Performance
Performance Nash-Sutcliffe Percent Error
Rating
(Monthly)
of the Mean
(Monthly)
Very good
0.75 < NSE < 1.00 < ±10
Good
0.65 < NSE < 0.75 ±10 < PEM < ±15
Satisfactory
0.50 < NSE < 0.65 ±15 < PEM < ±25
Unsatisfactory
< 0.50
> ±25
Moriasi, D. N., Arnold, J. G., Van Liew, M. W., Bigner, R. L., Harmel, R. D., & Veith, T. L.
(2007, vol 50, #3). Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy
in watershed simulations. Transactions of ASABE, American Society of Agricultural and
Biological Engineers, 885-900.
Upper St. Johns
Model
Planning Flow/Water
Unit
Level Station
Nash- % Error of
Sutcliffe the Mean
Fort Drum Creek
06A
USGS:02231342
0.72
-1.31
Blue Cypress Creek
06B
USGS:02231396
0.52
-0.69
S-96C
06B
SJR:0098
0.57
6.75
S-96B
06C
SJR:0096
0.11
-0.92
Crabgrass Creek
06E
USGS:02231565
0.43
-3.55
Jane Green Creek
06E
USGS:02231600
0.69
-0.09
Sixmile Creek
06F
USGS:02231454
0.60
-0.40
St Johns River near Melbourne
06F
USGS:02232000
0.88
-6.22
Wolf Creek near Deer Park
06G
USGS:02232200
0.61
-4.86
St Johns River near Cocoa
06G
USGS:02232400
0.85
-3.47
Taylor Creek
06G
USGS:02232415
0.29
5.74
St Johns River near Christmas
06HI
USGS:02232500
0.88
0.42
Middle St. Johns
Planning Flow/Water
Unit
Level Station
Model
Econlockhatchee River at Magnolia
Ranch
04A
Little Econlockhatchee River near Union
Park
04A
Little Econlockhatchee River at State
Road 434
04A
Nash- % Error of
Sutcliffe the Mean
USGS:02233001
0.22
17.88
USGS:02233200
0.61
-5.62
USGS:02233475
0.83
-3.00
Econlockhatchee River near Chuluota
04A
USGS:02233500
0.72
-1.23
Deep Creek near Osteen
04B
USGS:02234100
0.79
0.08
Howell Creek near Slavia
04C
USGS:02234324
0.70
1.31
Howell Creek at State Road 434
04C
USGS:02234344
0.73
-0.74
Gee Creek near Longwood
04C
USGS:02234400
0.60
0.77
Soldier Creek near Longwood
04C
USGS:02234384
0.64
-0.39
Blackwater Creek near DeBary
04E
SJR:30143084
0.80
-1.35
Wekiva River near Sanford
04E
USGS:2235000
0.68
-2.36
Little Wekiva River
04E
SJR:09502132
0.66
-1.56
Lake George
Model
Planning Flow/Water
Unit
Level Station
Nash- % Error of
Sutcliffe the Mean
Alexander Creek at CR445
05B
SJR:18523784
0.79
1.02
Alexander Creek at Tracy Canal
05B
SJR:18553786
0.80
2.57
Ocklawaha Flow
Model
Planning Flow/Water
Unit
Level Station
Nash- % Error of
Sutcliffe the Mean
Ocklawaha River at Conner
07EF
USGS:02240000
0.98
-0.01
Hatchet Creek
07G
SJR:01950193
0.80
-0.05
Bee Tree Creek
07G
SJR:02850235
0.86
-1.68
Little Hatchet Creek
07G
SJR:02840233
0.78
-0.01
Prairie Creek
07G
SJR:08631958
0.90
-6.17
Lochloosa Creek
07G
SJR:01930189
0.86
-0.65
Orange Lake Weir
07G
SJR:02601462
0.90
-21.93
Lower Orange Creek
07G
USGS:02243000
0.94
-4.45
Ocklawaha Water Level
Model
Planning Flow/Water
Unit
Level Station
Nash- % Error of
Sutcliffe the Mean
Newnans Lake
07G
SJR:04831007
0.86
-0.05
Orange Lake
07G
SJR:02611465
0.97
0.03
Lochloosa Lake
07G
SJR:71481615
0.88
-0.05
Apopka
07BCD
USGS:02237700
0.85
0.05
Lower St. Johns
Model
Planning Flow/Water
Unit
Level Station
Nash- % Error of
Sutcliffe the Mean
Little Haw Creek
03A
USGS:02244420
0.62
-1.94
Middle Haw Creek
03A
USGS:02244320
0.74
-1.72
Etonia Creek
03B
USGS:02245050
0.69
1.77
Rice Creek
03B
USGS:02244473
0.80
-3.08
Simms Creek
03B
USGS:02245140
0.66
-3.11
North Fork Black Creek
03C
USGS:02246000
0.81
-1.12
South Fork Black Creek
03C
USGS:02245500
0.75
-2.78
Ortega at Jacksonville
03D
USGS:02246300
0.70
-13.19
Deep Creek at Spuds
03F
USGS:02245260
0.68
0.34
Big Davis Creek at Bayard
03H
USGS:02246150
0.65
-1.79
Pablo Creek at Jacksonville
03I
USGS:02246828
0.65
-4.93