Transcript SD in Practice - a Systems Perspective on Change

Systems Thinking
in sustainability, projects and communication
Sustainable Development: Project Management & Communication
September 12, 2012
Systems Thinking
Systems thinking is the process of understanding how things
influence one another within a whole. (Wikipedia)
Systems thinking is a way of understanding reality that
emphasizes the relationships among a system's parts, rather
than the parts themselves. (Pegasus Commnunications)
Intuition & Analysis
Right brain & Left brain
Complexity & Simplicity
Structure & Behavior
System
a set of things – people, cells, molecules, or whatever –
interconnected in such a way that they produce their own
pattern or behavior over time. (Meadows, 2008)
a group of interacting, interrelated, and interdependent
components that form a complex and unified whole. (Pegasus
Communications)
an entity which maintains its existence through the mutual
interaction of its parts. (www.systems-thinking.org)
Aim
Using systems thinking to manage and
communicate projects that contribute to a
sustainable development
System
1610s, "the whole creation, the universe," from
L.L. systema "an arrangement, system," from
Gk. systema "organized whole, body,"
Think
O.E. þencan "conceive in the mind, think,
consider, intend" (past
tense þohte, p.p. geþoht), probably originally
"cause to appear to oneself,"
Sustainable
1610s, "bearable," from sustain + -able.
Attested from 1845 in the sense "defensible;"
from 1965 with the meaning "capable of being
continued at a certain level."
Development
1756, "an unfolding;" see develop + -ment. Of
property, with the sense "bringing out the
latent possibilities," from 1885. Meaning
"state of economic advancement" is from
1902. Meaning "advancement through
progressive stages" is 1836.
Project
c.1400, "a plan, draft, scheme," from
L. projectum "something thrown forth," noun
use of neuter of projectus, pp.
of projicere "stretch out, throw forth,"
from pro- "forward" (see pro-) + combining
form of iacere (pp. iactus) "to throw"
(see jet (v.)). Meaning "scheme, proposal,
mental plan" is from c.1600.
Manage
1560s, probably from It. maneggiare "to
handle," especially "to control a horse,"
ultimately from Latin noun manus "hand"
(seemanual (adj.)). Influenced by
Fr. manège "horsemanship" (earliest English
sense was of handling horses), which also was
from Italian. Extended to other objects or
business from 1570s.
Communication
late 14c., from O.Fr. comunicacion (14c.,
Mod.Fr. communication), from
L. communicationem (nom. communicatio),
noun of action from communicare "to share,
divide out; communicate, impart, inform; join,
unite, participate in," lit. "to make common,"
fromcommunis (see common)
Aim - rephrased
Causing organized whole bodies to appear to
oneself, in order to handle, and make
common, something thrown forth that
contributes to a bearable unfolding.
Exercise: Paper Tear
Ways of explaining reality
Ways of explaining reality
Ways of explaining reality
Events
Patterns, Trends
Systemic Structures
Mental Models
What just happened?
What’s been happening?
Have we been here or some place similar before?
What are the forces at play contributing to
these patterns?
What about our thinking allows this situation
to persist?
Ways of explaining
reality
Drought
Events
Declining
Water Table
Patterns, Trends
B3
Water from Pumping
+
Systemic Structures
-
Water
Demand
+
Irrigated
+
Lands
-
External Water
Resources
B1
B4
+
Expand if
Water Available
+
+
Natural
Vegetation
+
Water from
Divertions
Divertions
+
Water Supply Unit Cost
-
B6
Salinization of +
Aquifers
Water Supply Expectations
Drive Irrigation Development
+
+
Piezometric
Levels
Seawater
Intrusion
Costs Escalation
Expected
Profitability
Dams
+
+
B2
R6
B5
Water from
Reservoirs
+
Expand if
Land Available
+
+
-
Water in Local
Aquifers
Surface Water
Availability
+
Profitability
+ from Irrigated
Lands
Available Area
for New
Irrigated Lands
Mental Models
Pumping
Water
Excess/Shortage +
+
Planned Increase
of Water Resources
Pressure for
more Water
• One cause produces one effect. There must be a single cause, for
example, of acid rain, or cancer, or the greenhouse effect. All we
need to do is discover and remove it.
• All growth is good—and possible. There are no effective limits to
growth.
• Technology can solve any problem that comes up.
• The future is to be predicted, not chosen or created. It happens to
us; we do not shape it.
• A problem does not exist or is not serious until it can be measured.
Mental Models – Patterns of Thought
”Without changing our patterns of
thought, we will not be able to solve the
problems we created with our patterns of
thought”
Albert Einstein
”Our
life is what our thoughts make it”
Marcus Aurelius, Meditations
Color
Furniture
Tool
ISIS
INDICATORS (I)
Definition
An indicator quantifies and simplifies phenomena and helps us understand complex
realities. Indicators are aggregates of raw and processed data but they can be
further aggregated to form complex indices.
(International Institute for sustainable development)
An indicator can be defined as something that helps us to understand where we are,
where we are going and how far we are from the goal. Therefore it can be a sign, a
number, a graphic and so on. It must be a clue, a symptom, a pointer to something
that is changing. Indicators are presentations of measurements. They are bits of
information that summarize the characteristics of systems or highlight what is
happening in a system.
To interpret indicators
Ideal
OK
Collapse
past
present
WHAT SYSTEM?
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sweden
Uppsala
Uppsala University
The Geosciences building
CEMUS
Other?
System
a set of things – people, cells, molecules, or whatever –
interconnected in such a way that they produce their own
pattern or behavior over time. (Meadows, 2008)
a group of interacting, interrelated, and interdependent
components that form a complex and unified whole. (Pegasus
Communications)
an entity which maintains its existence through the mutual
interaction of its parts. (www.systems-thinking.org)
• Nature: all of our natural ecological systems and
environmental concerns, from ecosystem health to resource
consumption and waste.
• Economy: The system by which we use nature, together with
our own work and ideas, into goods, services, money and
jobs.
• Society: The institutions and structures that organize our
collective life as human beings, from government agencies to
school clubs, as well as the cultural values that underpin
them.
• Wellbeing: Individual health, happiness and quality of life,
which also includes the health and hapiness of our families
and others close to us, and our relationships to them.
Systems (S)
•Sources, Stocks, Sinks and flows
•Feedback
•Delay
•Non-linear effects
•Thresholds
•Positive and negative casual relationships
Conceptual Modeling
• Words
• Pictures
• Diagrams
Cause and Effect
Typical approach
then B
If A
Systems approach
C
B
D
A
The term ’feedback’ has come to serve as a euphemism for
critizing others, as in ’the boss gave me feedback on my
presentation’. This use of ’feedback’ is not what we mean in
systems dynamics. Further ’positive feedback’ does not mean
’praise’ and ’negative feedback’ does not mean ’criticism’.
Positive feedback denotes a self-reinforcing process, and
negative feedback denotes a self-correcting (balancing) one.
Either type can be good or bad, depending on which way it is
operating and of course your values.
John Sterman
Positive and negative causation?
If A goes up, then B goes up
If A goes down then B goes down
If A goes up, then B goes down
If A goes down, then B goes up
Exercise: Living Loops
Causal Loop Diagram
Causal refers to cause-and-effect relationship
Loop refers to closed chain of cause and effect
Casual Loop Diagrams
A causal loop diagram (CLD) is a
diagram that helps you visualize and
understand how the different key parts
and elements in a complex system
interact.
Causal Loop Diagram Notation
Birth Rate
+
+
R
+
Population
B
Fractional Birth
Rate
Death Rate
+
-
Average
Lifetime
Loop identifiers:
R
B
or
or
+
-
Positive (Reinforcing)
Loop
Negative (Balancing)
Loop
Causal Link
Variable1
Link Polarity
+
Variable2
Causation versus Correlation
Correlations do not represent the structure of the system.
Causal diagrams must include only
(what you believe to be) genuine causal relationships.
Incorrect
Ice Cream
Sales
+
Murder
Rate
Causation versus Correlation
Correlations do not represent the structure of the system.
Causal diagrams must include only
(what you believe to be) genuine causal relationships.
Incorrect
Ice Cream
Sales
Correct
+
Murder
Rate
Murder
Rate
+
Ice Cream
Sales
+
Average
Temperature
Causation versus Correlation
Correlations do not represent the structure of the system.
Causal diagrams must include only
(what you believe to be) genuine causal relationships.
Incorrect
Ice Cream
Sales
Correct
+
Murder
Rate
Murder
Rate
+
Ice Cream
Sales
+
Average
Temperature
• Does vitamin C cure the common cold?
• Can eating oat bran reduce cholesterol, and if it does, will your risk
of a heart attack drop?
• Does economic growth lead to lower birth rate?
Variable names should be nouns or noun phrases
Avoid verbs and action phrases since the action is conveyed in the arrows.
Incorrect
Correct
+
Costs Rise
Price Rises
+
Costs
Price
A causal diagram captures the structure of the system, not its
behavior
Exampel: Sahel Reforestation
Process
1975
2003
Conceptual modell on a
village/landscape scale
Drought Duration
and Intensity
Advancing
Desert
Local Rainfall
+
+
Environmental
Degradation +
+
R5
-
Forestry officers
interventions
-
Tree Removal
+
Tree Density
Fodder in
fields
+
-
Local Decision
and
Enforcement
Capacity
Tree Planting and
Cultivation
-
+
Crop
Planting
Success
+
Farmers' Sense of Crisis
( Potential for Behavior
Shift)
-
-
B2b
B2a
Local
Livestock
Access
Distant
Resources
Livestock
visiting
Farmers'
Fields
B2c
+
+
Foraging
Time
-
B2d
ET
-
-
-
Wind Speed
B1
B4b
Conflicts
Herders/Farmers
-
+
+
Herder
Livestock
+
+
-
Fuelwood
Availability
+
+
+
B4c
B4a
+
-
-
Potential for Non-Farm
Income Generation
+
+
Farmers'
Livestock
B2e
Fuelwood
Sales
Herder
Monitoring
Time
Soil Fertility +
Soil
Moisture
+
Household
Subsistence
+
+
Crop Yield
-
+
+
+
B3b
+
Family Food
Production
B3a
Food
Export
Food
purchases
+
+
+
Household
Income
Drawing casual loop diagrams
Draw a causal loop diagram (CLD) that portrays
how your chosen indicators interact in a
systematic way. Start with the indicators you
have and add indicators that you think are
important for the dynamics of the system.
LEVERAGE POINTS
Places within a complex system where a small
shift in one thing can produce big changes in
everything. Points of power.
Identified leverage points
depend on
•
•
•
•
What system we are looking at
How we are looking at it
How we have conceptualized it
Our mental models
And they are often counter-intuitive (J.W.
Forrester)
Places to intervene in a system
12.
11.
10.
9.
8.
7.
Constants, parameters, numbers
Sizes of the buffers and other stabilizing
stocks, relative to their flows
The structure of material stocks and flows
The length of delays, relative to the rate of
system change
The strength of negative feedback loops,
relative to the impacts they are trying to
correct against
The gain around driving positive feedback loops
Places to intervene in a system
6.
5.
4.
3.
2.
1.
The structure of information flows (who does and who
does not have access to what kinds of information).
The rules of the system (such as incentives, punishments,
constraints)
The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize
system structure
The goals of the system
The mindset or paradigm out of which the system –it’s
goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters – arises
The power to transcend paradigms
LEVERAGE POINTS
Try to classify the levarage points that you have
found by using Dana Meadows categories
CLOSING WORDS