Transcript Cornish RE Cluster - Transition Falmouth

Transition
Falmouth & Penryn
Gage Williams OBE MACantab MIET
Renewable Energy Office for Cornwall
(REOC)
[email protected], 01208 841378
DECC Amendments
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Energy Act – 2 amendments to introduce:
a. £400/MWh feed-in tariff for electricity from
microgeneration (50kW or less)
b. Renewable Heat Incentive of £20/MWh
If accepted, will increase demand for
microgeneration:
 50 kW wind-turbine revenue will jump from
£24,000 to £80,000 pa
 Water mill jumps from £7,200 to £24,000
Biomass CHP & Ground Source Heat Pumps
will be paid for heat
2
Fal/Pen tonnes of oil equivalent p.a.
Emissions activity
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Tonnes oil
equivalent
per person
Fal/Pen toe
food
22%
0.90
27,000
building shared infrastructure
19%
0.75
22,500
energy use in home
17%
0.68
20,400
personal transport
14%
0.54
16,200
waste and consumer goods
13%
0.51
15,300
using shared services
12%
0.43
12,900
3%
0.14
4,200
100%
3.94
118,500
home infrastructure
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%
Based on 12.4 tons CO2 per person: one tonne of
heating oil when burnt emits 3.16 tons CO2
Population of Fal/Penryn is ~30,000
Sources REOC 2002 , Bioregional: creating low carbon communities
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Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHP)
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Cornwall leads the GSHP field
Ideal for new houses or as replacement boiler for
20% of old houses
Fal/Pen has 13,200 houses; 2,640 to have GSHP
Typical cost £7,500 less £2,500 grant
Net cost of £1,500 more than new oil boiler
Put in 4 MWh of electricity; get back 16 MWh heat
Get annual refund of £320 with Renewable Heat
Incentive if it is £20/MWh
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Domestic Ground Source Heat Pump
Kensa’s new heat
pump design
A Slinky
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GSHPs
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Can be horizontal if space is available or vertical
or sunk in a lake
Most effective if pump’s electricity is renewable –
4:1 energy gain
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Domestic Energy
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Average Cornish house uses 4 MWh
electricity & 16 MWh for heating/hot water
With GSHP this becomes 8 MWh electricity
plus £320 annual RHI refund sufficient to
buy 3 MWh of electricity at ~10p/kWh
Leaves 5 MWh electricity to find RE supply
if the 2,640 houses with GSHPs are to go
100% green energy
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Micro Wind-Turbines
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Not more than 50kW as earns £400/MWh
compared to larger turbines’ ~£120/MWh
Carland turbines are 400kW
50kW far smaller –height of blade tip is 34m
(110ft) only. New large turbines 440ft.
Need to be >100m apart, best to cluster as
cuts planning & hook-up and other costs
Fal/Pen could lease a windy site perhaps in
the Clay Area or use your own site rent free!
But output = cube of the average wind speed
6 m/sec = 216; 8 m/sec = 512; 137% more
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PGE 20/50 Wind-Turbine
Ave wind 7m/sec
240 MWh pa earns
£96k at £400/MWh
feed-in-tariff
Clay Area 8m/sec
280 MWh pa £112k
pa
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Micro Wind and GSHP
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The 2,640 GSHP houses needed 5 MWh renewable
electricity to go 100% green
5 MWh would cost ~£500 at 10p/kWh (av domestic rate)
Each micro turbine earns £96k gross, £75k net
Each turbine can provide the income required to buy 5
MWh for 150 houses with GSHPs
18 wind-turbines & 2,640 GSHPs would convert 46,560
MWh to green energy saving 4,084 toe
Communal turbines get 50% capital grant reducing cost
from £200k to ~£120k
Cost of a 150th share is £800; GSHP cost is £1,500 after
grant and oil boiler replacement is deducted
2,640 households would need to find £2,300 to save
£2,000 pa they would have paid for 20 MWh
87% annual return!
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For the 80% without a GSHP
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For free domestic energy they need an income of
£2,000 pa (10p/kWh)
The net £75k earned by a wind turbine could
achieve this for 37 houses
Each house to buy 37th share in a turbine costing
£3,380 to earn £2,000 pa; 59% return pa
Would need 285 wind-turbines; total 303
Would require ~88 ha (220 acres)
Would generate 68,400 MWh green electricity
saving 6,000 toe
Total 10,084 toe saved; 8.5% of Fal/Pen’s 118,500
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How they might cluster
The diagram shows area
needed for cluster of
303 turbines (220 acres)
100m apart needs 88 acres; av wind speed 8.1m/sec
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The Multiplier Effect
Electricity
Today
GSHP £1,500
after
grants
etc
150
shares at
£800
Heat/HotWtr
Cost
4 MWh
16 MWh
= £2,000
8 MWh
£320 RHI refund
=
£480
1 wind
share
8 MWh
£320 refund + £500 div = £20 profit
£75k net
Notes: Assumes domestic tariff is 10p/kWh; GSHP is installed in new build or
replaces oil fired boiler; and 50kW wind turbine achieves 240 MWh for net £75k.
£2,300 invested earns gross £2,020 per year if FIT is 40p/kWh & RHI is 2p/kWh
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Micro-Hydro Schemes
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Fal/Pen has rich potential
Argal Res 17m higher than College Res
– could take 50kW micro-hydro
College Res to sea 64m another 50kW
Helland Mill at head of Argal 15kW
Total 115kW at 80% generates 806 MWh
worth £320k pa saving 73 toe
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Rural Solution – Micro Hydro
Can either
use pipe to
Francis
Turbine or
leat to water
wheel
River Dart 48kW uses
weir, improves fishing
& flood protection
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Tidal Schemes
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2 sq km estuary between Penryn & Trefusis Point
3 metre average tide; 60 million tonnes of
seawater every six hours
20 tethered jetties + 50 kW Gorlov Vertical
Turbines at 15% efficiency could generate 1,314
MWh earning £525,600 pa saving 116 toe
Jetties could create new moorings
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Farm Biomass CHP
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Small biomass CHP plants designed to match the 50kW
microgenerator limit
Need 840 tonnes woodland & sawmill waste, miscanthus
(16-20t/ha), waste wood
Each generates 400 MWh electricity, 1,180 MWh thermal
& 84 tonnes bio-coal
Would collocate with schools, supermarkets, business
parks, marinas, swim pool
If 11 had a plant, would generate 4,400 MWhe, 12,980
MWh thermal & 924 tonnes bio-coal
If half the heat is sold for £15/MWh and the bio-coal for
£300/t would earn £2,390,000 pa saving 2,005 toe pa (post
chipping, haulage, harvesting)
Total saved to date is 12,229 toe (10.3%)
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Farm Sized Biomass CHP
Organics Biomass
Energy CHP plant:
Fuel: 840 tonnes woody mix
incl miscanthus/SRC willow
Capex ~£400k, Rural Dev
Prog grant £140k
O&M annual costs ~£65k
Sale of CHP & Char ~£200k
Net return of £135k on
£260k investment
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Counting the Cost
Number
2640
3
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RE System
Cost
Planning
£2,220,000
GSHP + Wind
Micro Hydro
Biomass CHP
MWh
Heat MWh
Revenue
TOE Saved
£6,120,000
4,320
42,240
£2,572,800
4,084
£600,000
270
0
£108,000
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£2,860,000
4,400
21,006
£2,337,654
2,006
285
50kW Wind
£34,200,000
68,400
0
£27,360,000
6,000
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Tidal/Gorlov
£2,000,000
1,313
0
£525,000
115
£48,000,000
78,703
63,246
£32,746,120
12,229
Totals
Net Revenue after
~20% O&M
£26,000,000
Assuming an Operating & Maint cost of 20% pa, net
income is £26,000,000 & crude payback is 22 months
Installation takes five years
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The Unknowns
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Will the Feed-in-Tariff be £400/MWh?
It may reduce by 1% each year
Will the RHI be £20/MWh? How will the
heat be measured; must it be used?
Will a cluster of 50kW wind-turbines no
longer qualify as microgeneration?
Planning constraints and hurdles –
watch the new Planning Act
Will parishioners support transition?
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The Benefits
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Puts about £26,000,000 into Fal/Pen
each year (~£2,000 per home)
Creates reserve fund of £29m
Cuts heating costs & offers chance to
buy shares with dividends
Eradicates/tackles rural & fuel poverty
Achieves degree of energy security
Saves ~38,640 tonnes CO2 per year
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How do you raise £48 million?
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Raise £20,000,000 equity preferentially from
Fal/Pen over 5 years
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Works out at ~£1,500 per household
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3,670 houses put money up in first year for £5.5m
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Includes £1,500 for Ground Source Heat Pump
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Shareholders agree to 50% of dividends for first 5
years to be put back into Fal/Pen Ltd
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Assumes 50% revenue for first year as wind &
GSHPs generate as soon as they are installed
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Self Funding for £48 million?
Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Build Rate
10%
22.5%
22.5%
22.5%
22.5%
Capex £k
6000
10500
10500
10500
10500
Equity
5500
7500
4500
2000
500
£k 50%
813
3047
5891
8734
813
3047
5891
Equity
Return
15%
23%
Accum £k
313
359
2019
-
-
-
-
11578
10563
8531
5688
2844
0
8734
11578
15438
17469
20313
23156
26000
34%
45%
58%
77%
87%
102%
116%
130%
250
484
2063
12625
21156
26844
29688
29688
to Capex
£k 50% to
Sharehldrs
Loss/Profit
No loan required based on £20 million equity, excellent rate of return
Reserve of £29 million carried forward for repairs/replacements
This is just one example; many ways of doing this
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Conclusions
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Each area will need a different RE mix
Feed-in-Tariff & RHI will lead to robust business
plans for shareholders without going to banks
Priority for Fal/Pen burghers to buy equity,
if not sold – offered outside
Biomass CHP will get double benefit
Feed-in-Tariff and Renewable Heat incentive
offer great opportunity for Cornwall
Would save 12,229 toe; 10.3% of Fal/Pen’s total
saving 30,000 people £8,900,000 if oil returns to
$147/barrel
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