Transcript Oakland As A

Pfeifer note: Section 6
Class 26
Model Building
Philosophy
Assignment 26
• 1. T-test 2-sample ≡ regression with dummy
T= +/- 6.2/2.4483 (from data analysis, complicated formula, OR
regression with dummy)
• 2. ANOVA single factor ≡ regression with p-1
dummies (see next slide)
• 3. Better predictor? The one with lower
regression standard error (or higher adj R2)
– Not the one with the higher coefficient.
• 4. Will they charge less than $4,500?
– Use regression’s standard error and t.dist to calculate
the probability.
Occupation
Lawyer
Lawyer
Lawyer
Lawyer
Lawyer
Lawyer
Lawyer
Lawyer
Lawyer
Lawyer
Ready for
ANOVA
Lawyer
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Physical
Therapist
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86
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Cabinetmake
r
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79
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84
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Systems
Analyst
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SAT
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Physical Therapist
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Physical Therapist
78
Physical Therapist
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Physical Therapist
86
Physical Therapist
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Physical Therapist
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Physical Therapist
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Physical Therapist
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Physical Therapist
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Physical Therapist
Cabinetmaker
Cabinetmaker
Cabinetmaker
Cabinetmaker
Cabinetmaker
Cabinetmaker
Cabinetmaker
Cabinetmaker
Cabinetmaker
Cabinetmaker
Systems Analyst
Systems Analyst
Systems Analyst
Systems Analyst
Systems Analyst
Systems Analyst
Systems Analyst
Systems Analyst
Systems Analyst
Systems Analyst
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79
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78
84
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44
73
71
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55
76
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Ready for
Regression
SAT
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78
80
86
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55
50
54
65
79
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79
64
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78
84
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73
71
60
64
66
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55
76
62
Dlawyer
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Agenda
•
•
•
•
IQ demonstration
What you can do with lots of data
What you should do with not much data
Practice using the Oakland As case
Remember the Coal Pile!
• Model Building involves more than just
selecting which of the available X’s to include
in the model.
– See section 9 of the Pfeifer note to learn about
transforming X’s.
– We won’t do much in this regard…
With lots of data
(big data?) Stats like “std
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3
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N
X1
0.96
0.58
0.39
.
.
0.47
X2
0.24
0.16
0.75
.
.
0.34
.
0.34
0.93
0.07
.
.
0.69
1. Split the data
into two sets
.
0.57
0.96
0.63
.
.
0.86
Xn
0.20
0.75
0.87
.
.
0.30
error” and adj Rsquare only
measure FIT
Y
0.43
0.35
0.49
.
.
0.22
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2
3
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N1
X1
0.96
0.58
0.39
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.
0.21
X2
0.24
0.16
0.75
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0.76
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0.34
0.93
0.07
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0.44
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0.57
0.96
0.63
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0.07
Xn
0.20
0.75
0.87
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0.65
Y
0.43
0.35
0.49
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0.92
N1+1
N1+2
N1+3
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X1
0.47
0.03
0.16
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0.47
X2
0.86
0.51
0.31
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0.86
Xn
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0.95
0.31
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0.30
Y
0.73
0.11
0.96
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0.22
2. Use the training set to
build several models.
Performance on a hold-out
sample measures how well
each model will FORECAST
3. Use the hold-out
sample to test/compare
the models. Use the
best performing model.
With lots of data
(big data?)
• Computer Algorithms do a very good job
of finding a model
• They guard against “over-fitting”
• Once you own the software, they are fast
and cheap
• They won’t claim, however, to do better
than a professional model builder
• Remember the coal pile!
Without much Data
• You will not be able to use a training set/hold out
sample
• You get “one shot” to find a GOOD model
• Regression and all its statistics can tell you which
model “FIT” the data the best.
• Regression and all its statistics CANNOT tell you
which model will perform (forecast) the best.
• Not to mention….regression has no clue about
what causes what…..
Remember…..
• The model that does a spectacular job of
fitting the past….will do worse at predicting
the future than a simpler model that more
accurately captures the way the world works.
• Better fit leads to poorer forecasts!
– Instead of forecasting 100 for the next IQ, the
over-fit model will sometimes predict 110 and
other times predict 90!
Requiring low-p-values for all
coefficients does not protect
against over-fitting.
• If there are 100 X’s that are of NO help in
predicting Y,
– We expect 5 of them will be statistically significant.
– And we’ll want to use all 5 to predict the future.
– And the model will be over-fit
– We won’t know it, perhaps
– Our predictions will be WORSE as a result.
Modeling Balancing Act
• Useable (do we know the
X’s?)
• Simple
• Make Sense
– Use your judgment, given
you can’t solely rely on the
stats/data
– Signs of coefficients should
make sense
• Significant (low p)
coefficients
– Except for sets of dummies
• Low standard error
– Consistent with high
adjusted R-square
• Meets all four
assumptions
– Linearity (most important)
– Homoskedasticity (equal
variance)
– Independence
– Normality (least important)
Oakland As (A)
Case Facts
• Despite making only $40K, pitcher Mark Nobel
had a great year for Oakland in 1980.
– Second in the league for era (2.53), complete
games (24), innings (284-1/3), and strikeouts (180)
– Gold glove winner (best fielding pitcher)
– Second in CY YOUNG award voting.
Nobel Wants a Raise
• “I’m not saying anything against Rick Langford or
Matt Keough (fellow As pitchers)…but I filled the
stadium last year against Tommy John (star
pitcher for the Yankees)”
• Nobel’s Agent argued
– Avg. home attendance for Nobel’s 16 starts was
12,663.6
– Avg. home attendance for remaining home games was
only 10,859.4
– Nobel should get “paid” for the difference
• 1,804.2 extra tickets per start.
Data from 1980 Home Games
No
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3
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DATE
10-Apr
11-Apr
12-Apr
.
.
26-Sep
27-Sep
28-Sep
TIX OPP POS GB DOW TEMP PREC TOG TV PROMO YANKS NOBEL
24415 2
5
1
4
57
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2
1
0
0
0
5729 2
3
1
5
66
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2
1
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0
5783 2
7
1
6
64
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5099 6
2 14
5
64
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4581 6
2 13
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62
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10662 6
2 12
7
65
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1
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1
0
0
LEGEND
Opposing Team
Position: A's ranking in American League West
Games Behind: Minimum No of games needed
to move ahead of current first place team.
1 Seattle
8 White Sox
2 Minnesota
9 Boston
3 California
10 Baltimore
Day of Week: Monday=1, Tuesday=2, etc.
4 Yankees
5 Detroit
11 Cleveland
12 Texas
Precipitation: 1 if precipitation, 0 if not.
6 Milwaukee
13 Kansas City
7 Toronto
Time of Game: 1 if day, 2 if night
TASK
• Be ready to report about the model assigned
to your table (1 to 7)
– What is the model? (succinct)
– Critique it (succinctly)
– Ignore “durban watson”
– “standard deviation of residuals” aka regression’s
standard error.
– Output gives just t-stat. A t of +- 2 corresponds to
p-value of 0.05.
Model 1: TIX versus NOBEL
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
T-stat.
NOBEL
CONSTANT
1,804.207
10,859.356
2,753.164
1,271.632
0.655
8.540
R-Squared = 0.006
Adjusted R-Square = -0.008
Std. Deviation of Residuals = 9767.6
Durbin Watson D = 1.196
Model 4: TIX versus OPP, NOBEL
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
T-stat.
OPP
NOBEL
CONSTANT
-269.135
1,572.135
12,807.161
297.809
2,768.562
2,182.002
-0.904
0.568
5.869
R-Squared = 0.017
Adjusted R-Square = 0.010
Std. Deviation of Residuals = 9779.9
Durbin Watson D = 1.146
Model 2: TIX versus 01 through 012, NOBEL
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
T-stat.
NOBEL
O1
O2
O3
O4
O5
O6
O7
O8
O9
O10
O11
O12
CONSTANT
323.388
-4,627.963
-1,607.024
-3,810.322
28,663.478
-2,177.244
-3,412.231
-3,628.322
-6,516.065
1,263.371
100.833
-927.898
-5,839.463
11,652.167
1,755.292
3,396.590
3,224.109
3,578.674
3,578.674
3,526.638
3,358.582
3,578.674
3,358.582
3,396.590
3,345.816
3,358.582
3,396.590
983.1261
0.184
-1.363
-0.498
-1.065
8.010
-0.617
-1.016
-1.014
-1.940
0.372
0.030
-0.276
-1.719
11.852
R-Squared = 0.708
Adjusted R-Squared = 0.645
Std. Deviation of Residuals = 5795.1
Durbin Watson D = 2.291
Model 3: TIX versus O1 through O12, PREC,
TEMP, PROMO, NOBEL, OD, DH
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
T-stat.
PREC
TEMP
PROMO
NOBEL
OD
DH
O1
O2
O3
O4
O5
O6
O7
O8
O9
O10
O11
O12
CONSTANT
-3,772.043
-184.293
5,398.545
-403.502
15,382.632
7,645.224
-7,213.660
-3,203.395
-5,780.245
25,640.501
-3,444.192
-4,568.433
-5,075.192
-5,973.904
1,966.401
-2,352.715
-1,701.151
-5,627.881
22,740.489
3,383.418
237.731
1,780.857
1,518.000
5,652.397
2,429.894
2,999.437
3,046.540
3,242.464
3,196.000
3,056.500
2,988.677
3,190.707
3,329.604
2,971.357
3,002.119
3,023.445
2,911.665
14,777.323
-1.115
-0.775
3.031
-0.266
2.721
3.146
-2.405
-1.051
-1.783
8.023
-1.127
-1.529
-1.591
-1.794
0.662
-0.784
-0.563
-1.933
1.539
R-Squared = 0.803
Adjusted R-Squared = 0.740
Std. Deviation of Residuals = 5011.0
Durbin Watson D = 2.269
Model 5: TIX versus PREC, TOG, TV, PROMO,
NOBEL, YANKS, WKEND, OD, DH
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
T-stat.
PREC
TOG
TV
PROMO
NOBEL
YANKS
WKEND
OD
DH
CONSTANT
-3,660.109
1,606.406
223.421
4,382.173
-1,244.411
29,493.164
1,468.269
16,119.831
5,815.814
5,082.356
3,251.502
1,334.121
1,982.301
1,658.644
1,546.545
2,532.314
1,328.585
5,388.174
2,375.194
2,170.419
-1.126
1.204
0.113
2.642
-0.805
11.647
1.105
2.992
2.449
2.342
R-Squared = 0.742
Adjusted R-Squared = 0.706
Std. Deviation of Residuals = 5273.5
Durbin Watson D = 1.733
Model 6: TIX versus PROMO, NOBEL, YANKS, DH
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
T-stat.
PROMO
NOBEL
YANKS
DH
CONSTANT
4,195.743
-1,204.082
29,830.245
5,274.262
8,363.238
1,737.742
1,607.869
2,641.516
2,457.377
527.298
2.414
-0.749
11.293
2.146
15.861
R-Squared = 0.692
Adjusted R-Square = 0.675
Std. Deviation of Residuals = 5551.0
Durbin Watson D = 1.96
Model 7: TIX versus PREC, PROMO, NOBEL, YANKS, OD
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
T-stat.
PREC
PROMO
NOBEL
YANKS
OD
CONSTANT
-1,756.508
3,758.92
-209.484
30,568.223
15,957.998
8,457.002
3,227.439
1,687.895
1,549.192
2,570.535
5,491.220
496.203
-0.544
2.227
-0.135
11.892
2.906
17.043
R-Squared = 0.709
Adjusted R-Square = 0.688
Std. Deviation of Residuals = 5434.5
Durbin Watson D = 1.873
What does it mean that the coefficient
of NOBEL in negative in most of the
models?
Why was the coefficient of NOBEL
positive in model 1?