Transcript Prediction is possible: who will be a successful student?

Prediction is possible
Hans Mackaaij (ALO)
Drs. Jolanda Mol
Requirement of the ALO
Improve study succes:
• Improve the quality of the starters
• Decrease the dropout of students
Support of Talent.Sense:
1. Start
2. Move up
3. Exit
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Is prediction possible?
- Is it possible to predict study succes?
- Is it possible to figure out the reasons of
dropout?
- Is it possible to prevent dropout?
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Talent.Sense Methode
Study attitude /
succes
expectation
Competences
/ Affinities
Attitude
Match
Balance
Personal strength
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Questionnaire
• Psychological instrument
• 202 stellingen & 42 vragen
– Intake rapport, Study development rapport, Quickscan
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Balance as a predictor
G1-G7
S
B
F
Optimaal
-
Stability
=
Requirements =
Frustrates
=
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I CAN
I WANT
I CAN NOT
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Attitude as a predictor
Succes expectation:
IS A
Succesfull
IS B
Probably
succesfull
IS C
Not succesfull
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Match as a predictor
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Research
Total N
Number of sampels
Predictors
Criterion variable
650
2
S-score
Dropout
Bron: Prediction is
Possible (Witte, de
Jong en Schoonman,
2014)
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Result
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Result
Risico groep
N=650
A (laag)
Drop-out %
Accuracy 66%
26%
Drop-out %
Accuracy 73%
28%
B (midden)
37%
43%
C (hoog)
56%
88%
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IS predictor
Dropout
Succes
• Low emotional stability
• Feelings of being overloaded
• Helpness, powerless
• Highly dynamic
• Conscientiousness
• Fous on tenacity
• Structured / Stable
• Enterprising
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Target group attention with I-score
Indicator
expected
studysucces
↑ Match with the study ↓
A
Above average
Above average
Variable succes
B
Variable succes
Variable succes
Below average
C
Below average
Barely succes
Barely succes
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Use of insights
Balans
Keep
Disbalans
Keep
Balans
Keep
Disbalans
Critical
Balans
Critical
Disbalans
Exit
A
TS meting
B
C
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Prediction is possible
Increase of Study succes
- Is it possible to predict study succes?
→ yes: the lower the indicator of succes, the higher the
change of dropout
- Is it possible to figure out the reasons of dropout?
→ yes: the reason is caused by attitude, balance and match
- Is it possible to prevent dropout?
→ yes: students with a lower balance and vulnerable
attitude need counseling on a frequent base
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Contact
L&D Support
Sector Onderwijs
Drs. Jolanda Mol
[email protected]
0031 6 121 75 649
Hans Mackaaij
[email protected]
0
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