Transcript Demographic Characteristics of Southeast Florida

South Florida Regional Planning Council
Demographic and Economic
Characteristics of Southeast Florida
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Overview
• Population dynamics in all of Southeast Florida (the seven counties
from Monroe in the south to Indian River in the north) are driven by:
o Growth – The region has consistently grown more quickly than
the nation, even if it now grows more slowly than the State of
Florida as a whole.
o Mobility – International migration has been the largest source of
net growth, but domestic inflows and outflows also contribute to
the “pulse” of growth.
o Changes in composition – Migration, whether international or
domestic, brings with it potential shifts in the age, race/ethnic
and cultural make-up of the region.
o Increasing spatial integration – commuting patterns and countyto-county migration show rising levels of cross-county
movement, especially within the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano
Beach MSA, but also moving north within the region.
• Despite the current downturn, when viewed on a competitive basis
around the country, Southeast Florida continues to offer advantages
that could position it well to resume growth when the national
economy rebounds.
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Personal Income
• Per capita personal income in Southeast Florida in 2009 was
$43,057, which was higher than the State of Florida ($38,965) and
national ($39,635) averages. Still, the region was already feeling
the economic downturn, as per capita income in 2009 was down
from $43,887 in 2007 and $44,829 in 2008.
o Within the region, per capita income in 2009 ranged from
$29,526 in St. Lucie County to $60,174 in Monroe County.
o Southeast Florida depends on Dividends, Interest and Rent for a
larger portion of its personal income (30.0%) than either the
State of Florida (26.9%) or the nation (18.0%).
o Both Indian River County and Martin County derived over half of
personal income from this category in 2009, followed by Monroe
County (45.4%) and Palm Beach County (43.7%).
o Transfer payments were highest as a proportion of overall
personal income in St. Lucie County (27.9%) and Miami-Dade
County (21.1%), compared to only 17.5% nationally.
o The per capita value of transfer payments was highest in Indian
River County ($9,191) and Martin County ($8,644), where both
Social Security and Medicare payments were relatively high.
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Southeast Florida
Real Per Capita Income 1990-2009 ($2009)
$65,000
$60,000
Monroe
M-Dade
Brow ard
P Beach
Martin
St Lucie
I River
Region
Florida
$55,000
$50,000
$45,000
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional
Economic Information System (April, 2011).
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Southeast Florida
Per Capita Income by Source 2009
100%
6,934
90%
80%
10,058
30,444
7,677
7,889
6,637
8,644
40%
20%
7,440
7,443
8,242
30%
6,944
30,401
6,472
60%
50%
12,915
10,475
25,116
27,302
70%
7,143
7,348
21,746
9,191
25,548
24,655
26,235
22,700
13,936
24,456
19,624
21,050
16,711
10%
Net Earnings
Transfer Payments
Dividends, Interest, and Rent
0%
Monroe
MiamiDade
Broward
Palm
Beach
Martin
St. Lucie
Indian
River
Region
Florida
US
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional
Economic Information System (April, 2011).
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Southeast Florida
Per Capita Transfer Receipts by Type 2009
100%
464
90%
244
414
352
437
334
409
438
523
321
276
361
413
617
723
488
457
1,054
589
80%
457
426
525
444
365
340
320
424
754
692
965
916
508
633
699
710
657
898
755
70%
1,277
1,302
2,753
60%
2,920
2,633
2,048
2,389
50%
2,192
2,132
2,535
1,629
40%
2,766
30%
4,017
20%
4,125
3,156
2,588
3,114
2,042
1,608
10%
2,612
2,279
Florida
US
2,241
Retirement & Disability Insurance B enefit P ayments
M edicare
P ublic A ssistance M edical Care / Other M edical
Inco me M aintenance B enefit P ayments
Unemplo yment Insurance B enefit P ayments
Veterans / Other B enefit P ayments
0%
Monroe
Miami-Dade
Brow ard
Palm Beach
Martin
St. Lucie
Indian River
Region
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional
Economic Information System (April, 2011).
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Southeast Florida
% of Population Below Poverty Level, 1999 & 2010
25%
1999
% With Income Below Poverty Level
2010
20%
15%
20.4%
10%
18.0%
18.0%
16.8%
14.6%
5%
10.2%
14.6%
14.2%
13.4%
15.3%
13.8%
12.5%
11.5%
11.1%
10.0%
9.9%
16.5%
12.4%
9.3%
8.8%
0%
Monroe
Miami-Dade
Broward
Palm Beach
Martin
St. Lucie
Indian River
SE Florida
Florida
US
Source: US Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census
and 2010 American Community Survey.
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Southeast Florida
% of Elderly Below Poverty Level, 1999 & 2010
25%
Elderly (65+)
1999
2010
% With Income Below Poverty Level
20%
15%
22.4%
10%
18.9%
13.8%
12.1%
5%
10.0%
11.4%
10.0%
8.8%
7.9%
6.9%
6.6%
7.7%
9.1%
8.4%
5.7%
5.2%
9.9%
9.9%
9.0%
6.7%
0%
Monroe
Miami-Dade
Broward
Palm Beach
Martin
St. Lucie
Indian River
SE Florida
Florida
US
Source: US Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census
and 2010 American Community Survey.
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Southeast Florida
% of Children Below Poverty Level, 1999 & 2010
30%
Children (0-17)
1999
2010
% With Income Below Poverty Level
25%
20%
15%
28.8%
27.2%
25.4%
23.2%
23.5%
22.9%
22.7%
21.6%
21.2%
10%
19.7%
15.7%
18.9%
14.6%
14.3%
17.6%
16.6%
14.3%
12.2%
5%
10.5%
8.7%
0%
Monroe
Miami-Dade
Broward
Palm Beach
Martin
St. Lucie
Indian River
SE Florida
Florida
US
Source: US Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census
and 2010 American Community Survey.
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The Economic Downturn
• As the economy slowed down, both in the nation and in Southeast
Florida, the job picture worsened dramatically:
o Between Dec/07 and Jan/10, over 213,000 jobs were lost in the
7-county region, a reduction of 7.1%.
o Of that total, almost 143,000 jobs were lost in South Florida
(6.6%) and over 70,000 were lost in the Treasure Coast Region
(8.4%).
o During that period, the region’s unemployment rate rose from
4.7% to 11.0%. In Aug/10, the unemployment rate reached
12.1% in South Florida and 13.0% in the Treasure Coast. As of
Dec/11, the region’s rate was still at 9.7%.
o There were over 310,000 unemployed in Dec/11, down from
397,000 in Aug/10, but up from 147,000 in Dec/07 (111%).
• Since December 2007, the number of Southeast Florida residents
enrolled for public assistance rose as well. In Nov/11, there were
654,000 households receiving food stamps worth almost $156
million, three times the $51 million in Dec/07.
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0.82
2.12
0.78
2.06
0.74
Millions
2.16
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-08
Nov-07
Sep-07
Jul-07
May-07
Mar-07
Jan-07
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Treasure Coast
South Florida
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-08
Nov-07
Sep-07
Jul-07
May-07
Mar-07
Jan-07
2.00
0.86
2.18
Millions
Southeast Florida Employment, 2007-11
0.84
2.14
2.10
0.80
2.08
2.04
0.76
2.02
Source: Florida Department of Economic
Opportunity.
Southeast Florida Unemployment Rate, 2007-11
14%
14%
12%
12%
10%
10%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
Oct-07
Jul-07
Apr-07
Jan-07
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
Oct-07
Jul-07
Apr-07
Jan-07
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Treasure Coast
South Florida
Source: Florida Department of Economic
Opportunity.
$160
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
Mar-11
Feb-11
Jan-11
Dec-10
Nov-10
Oct-10
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
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Issuance ($)
Treasure Coast Region
$140
South Florida Region
Millions
Southeast Florida
Monthly Value of Food Stamp Benefits, 2007-11
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
Source: Florida Department of Children
and Families (December, 2011)
Southeast Florida
Median Housing Value ($), 2005-2010
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
Monroe
Miami-Dade
Brow ard
Palm Beach
Martin
St. Lucie
Indian River
Florida
United States
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: US Bureau of the Census,
American Community Survey.
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Resident Population Growth, 2000-10
Growth
Monroe
MiamiDade
Broward
Palm
Beach
Martin
St. Lucie
Indian
River
Southeast
Florida
Florida
US
Absolute
-6,499
242,656
125,048
188,943
19,587
85,094
25,081
679,910
2,818,486
27,323,632
(%)
-8.2%
10.8%
7.7%
16.7%
15.5%
44.2%
22.2%
12.3%
17.6%
9.7%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Monroe
Miami-Dade
Broward
Palm Beach
Martin
St. Lucie
Indian River
SE Florida
Florida
US
-5%
-10%
Source: US Bureau of the Census
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Southeast Florida – Components of Population Change
2000 to 2010
100%
80%
60%
Natural Increase
Net Migration
40%
20%
0%
Monroe
Miami-Dade
Brow ard
Palm Beach
Martin
St. Lucie
Indian River
SE Florida
Florida
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
-100%
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business
Research (May, 2011)
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Southeast Florida
Place of Birth, 2010
100%
90%
21,824
812,645
564,889
379,317
39,659
39,612
95,016
1,952,962
80%
6,635,477
181,747,947
70%
311,374
60%
50%
Foreign born
Born outside the US
Born in other state in the US
Born in state of residence
1,848,428
579,110
38,452
7,961,693
40%
80,072
609,515
91,832
138,073
30%
83,418,099
1,302,205
20%
2,247,509
558,399
10%
306,611
3,658,043
11,349
39,588
16,202
St. Lucie
Indian River
13,155
39,955,854
0%
Monroe
Miami-Dade
Brow ard
Palm Beach
Martin
Region
Florida
US
Source: US Bureau of the Census,
2010 American Community Survey.
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Southeast Florida
Foreign-Born Population, 1980-2010
100%
90%
Foreign-born
80%
258,305
445,696
538,665
70%
60%
Native
3,267,460
2,728,795
3,971,461
3,713,156
50%
40%
30%
441,614
20%
10%
441,139
598,427
1,207,943
766,329
2,247,509
1,806,370
0%
1980
Change 1980-90
1990
Change 1990-00
2000
Change 2000-10
2010
Sources: US Bureau of the Census, Decennial
Censuses, 2010 American Community Survey.
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Origin of the Foreign-Born
• In 2010, 87.2% of the region’s 2.2 million foreignborn residents came from Latin America. That
included 1.1 million from the Caribbean, 434,000
from South America, and 329,000 from Central
America.
• Countries of origin for the largest number of
foreign-born residents of the region included Cuba
(647,000), Haiti (193,000), Colombia (154,000),
Jamaica (128,000), and Nicaragua (95,000).
• Other countries with a significant presence in 2010
included Mexico, Venezuela, Honduras, Peru and the
Dominican Republic, each with more than 50,000
residents.
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Southeast Florida
Journey to Work Flows, 2009
County of Work – Primary Jobs
County of
Residence
Broward
MiamiDade
Monroe
Out of
Region
2,558
2,181
1,647
32
10,274
45,101
12,219
10,451
3,802
3,072
66
14,928
84,564
4,351
19,227
10,294
2,423
1,911
40
9,049
47,736
1,075
3,058
4,892
292,921
61,418
27,818
413
56,989
448,584
Broward
897
1,580
1,469
57,346
414,218
129,533
1,004
68,322
674,369
Miami-Dade
777
1,5019
1,489
24,591
94,575
656,220
3,533
59,119
841,805
38
68
82
1,002
2,790
4,918
20,259
2,865
32,022
Out of Region
9,682
9,833
6,555
51,771
66,470
59,072
2,064
Total Jobs
40,583
59,771
47,015
450,934
647,877
884,191
27,411
Indian River
St. Lucie
Martin
Palm Beach
Monroe
Indian
River
St Lucie
Martin
23,272
3,755
1,082
4,401
35,625
441
Palm
Beach
Total
Workers
205,447
221,846
2,379,628
Source: US Bureau of the Census, Longitudinal
Employer-Household Dynamics, On the Map.
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Changing Composition - Race/Ethnicity
• There is enormous diversity within the categories we use to present
data on race and ethnicity. The Black or African American
population includes a large number of people from the Caribbean
and Central and South America, and the Hispanic or Latino
population is very diverse within.
• Between 2000 and 2010 there was continued rapid growth of the
Hispanic (658,000) and non-Hispanic Black or African American
(218,000) populations in Southeast Florida, and an absolute
decrease in the non-Hispanic White population (-229,000).
• In 2010, the race/ethnic composition of Southeast Florida was made
up of 39% Hispanic or Latino, 38% non-Hispanic White, 19% nonHispanic Black or African American, and 4% other non-Hispanic.
About 40% of the Hispanic population was born in the United States.
• In 2000, the non-Hispanic White population represented 47% of the
regional total, down from 57% in 1990. In other words, the nonHispanic White population of Southeast Florida ceased to be the
majority sometime in the 1990s, due mostly to the growth of the
Hispanic population in Miami-Dade County.
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Southeast Florida
Racial and Ethnic Composition of the Population, 2010
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
White NH
Black, African American NH
Asian NH
Other Race NH
Two or More Races NH
Hispanic or Latino (all races)
10%
0%
Monroe
Miami-Dade
Broward
Palm Beach
Martin
St.Lucie
Indian River
Region
Florida
US
"Hispanic or Latino" includes people of all races. All racial data refer to those who answered "Not Hispanic or Latino" (NH). Individual racial categories
reflect totals only for those who marked a single racial category, except the one labeled "Two or More Races NH."
Source: US Bureau of the Census.
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Southeast Florida
Change in Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000-10
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Monroe
Miami-Dade
Broward
Palm Beach
Martin
St.Lucie
Indian River
SE Florida
Florida
US
-20%
-30%
-40%
White NH
Black, African American NH
-50%
Asian NH
Other Race NH
-60%
Two or More Races NH
Hispanic or Latino (all races)
-70%
-80%
"Hispanic or Latino" includes people of all races. All racial data refer to those who answered "Not Hispanic or Latino" (NH). Individual racial
categories reflect totals only for those who marked a single racial category, except the one labeled "Two or More Races NH."
Source: US Bureau of the Census.
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Southeast Florida Age Distribution, 2010
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Under 5
5 to 24
25 to 44
45 to 64
65 to 84
85 or more
10%
0%
Monroe
Miami-Dade
Broward
Palm Beach
Martin
St. Lucie
Indian River SE Florida
Florida
United
States
Source: US Bureau of the Census
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Southeast Florida - Median Age, 1990-2010
50
1990
2000
2010
45
40
35
30
25
20
Monroe
Miami-Dade
Broward
Palm Beach
Martin
St. Lucie
Indian River
Florida
US
Source: US Bureau of the Census, Decennial
Censuses.
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Southeast Florida
Change in Age Composition by Gender, 2000-10
85 years and over
80 to 84 years
Male
75 to 79 years
Female
70 to 74 years
65 to 69 years
60 to 64 years
55 to 59 years
50 to 54 years
45 to 49 years
40 to 44 years
35 to 39 years
30 to 34 years
25 to 29 years
20 to 24 years
15 to 19 years
10 to 14 years
5 to 9 years
Under 5 years
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Source: US Bureau of the Census
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Southeast Florida Growth, 1920-2040
Year
Resident
(April 1)
Population
Period
Absolute
New Residents
Average Annual
Growth
per Day
Rate of Growth
1920
93,978
1930
247,346
1920/30
153,368
42.0
10.16%
1940
428,723
1930/40
181,377
49.7
5.65%
1950
763,521
1940/50
334,798
91.7
5.94%
1960
1,626,555
1950/60
863,034
236.3
7.86%
1970
2,404,094
1960/70
777,539
212.9
3.98%
1980
3,494,804
1970/80
1,090,710
298.6
3.81%
1990
4,475,531
1980/90
980,727
268.5
2.50%
2000
5,519,950
1990/00
1,044,419
285.9
2.12%
2010
6,199,860
2000/10
679,910
186.1
1.17%
2020
6,793,500
2010/20
593,640
162.5
0.92%
2030
7,390,900
2020/30
597,400
163.6
0.85%
2040
7,898,800
2030/40
507,100
138.8
0.67%
Source: Bureau of Economic and
Business Research (June 2011)
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Changing Composition - Age
• Current projections indicate that, over the next 2
decades, the population 65 and older in Southeast
Florida will grow more than any other age cohort, as
it absorbs the “baby boom” generation.
• The Region’s elderly are expected to increase by over
688,000 (58%), to over 1.7 million, rising from
16.6% of the total in 2010 to 23.3% of the total in
2030.
• The increase will be more pronounced in the Treasure
Coast, where the elderly are projected to represent
28.4% of the total by 2030.
• In South Florida, the elderly are projected to reach
over million (20.7% of the total) in 2030, up from
14.2% in 2010.
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Southeast Florida Projections by Age
2000-2030
100%
90%
80%
70%
0-4
5-19
20-34
35-64
65 and up
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: Office of Economic and Demographic
Research (February, 2012).
29
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Millions
Southeast Florida Population 65+, 2000-2030
1.8
Population 65 and over
1.6
1.4
South Florida
Treasure Coast
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: Office of Economic and Demographic
Research (February, 2012).
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Growth - Uncertainties
Factors that could affect future growth:
• Economic Recovery - The pace in the recovery of
employment growth will contribute to the pace of
population growth.
• Affordability – The high cost of insurance and property
taxes, combined with relatively low wages, could
make less expensive regions of the State and
elsewhere in the US more attractive than Southeast
Florida, unless there are adjustments in the coming
years.
• Hurricanes / Insurance – If the region is hit
repeatedly by hurricanes in the coming years, the
disruption, the cost of repairs and increasing
insurance costs could discourage residents from
staying in Southeast Florida or coming here from
other parts of the US.
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Growth - Uncertainties
Factors that could affect future growth (continued):
• Changes in immigration laws and enforcement – Some of
the legislative changes under consideration, if approved,
along with more aggressive enforcement, could both affect
the number of international in-migrants.
• External Events – As the earthquake in Haiti demonstrated,
demographic flows into Southeast Florida are strongly
affected by external events. Political and economic unrest
in South and Central America and the Caribbean can
generate unpredictable surges in international migration.
• Sea Level Rise – Although the most severe direct impacts
of sea level rise appear to be beyond the 2030 timeframe
that is the focus of this presentation, the need to prepare
for its impacts starting now will have important
consequences for the way the Region grows going forward.
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