Transcript Bill Sutherland`s presentation

13th National Biodiversity Network Conference
Future challenges for the NBN
The Sir John Burnett Memorial Lecture, 2013
Big data, NBN and effective
conservation
William Sutherland, Conservation Science Group,
Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge
Did we really use this stuff in 2013?
The next
day…
35 seconds
later…
Plant – herbivore interactions
Indicator Bat Program
Since 2005, iBats data cover 30 species from
200,000 km in 3000 transects, directly training 159
volunteers in 20 workshops, involving over 1000
volunteers
Jones et al. 2013 In: Biodiversity Monitoring and Conservation
Bat Monitoring Smartphone Apps
© Jon Russ
Bird-borne miniature video cameras
Rutz et al. (2007) Science
Rutz & Bluff (2008) Trends Ecol. Evol.
Bluff & Rutz (2008) Biology Letters
Rutz & Troscinako (2013) Methods Ecol. Evol.
Environmental DNA
metabarcoding
What can we do with this mass
of data?
Biodiversity
Landuse data
Models
Hydrological data
Environmental data
Platform
Information
Research
Policy
Where is important?
How is biodiversity changing?
What are the threats?
What are the effective solutions?
What are the costs and benefits of
options?
Delphi technique
Question
Confidential
expert assessments
Presentation
anonymised scores
Discussion
Group assessment
“WISCONSIN appears to be in the driver’s seat en route to a
win, as it leads 51-10 after the third quarter. Wisconsin added to
its lead when Russell Wilson found Jacob Pedersen for an
eight-yard touchdown to make the score 44-3….”
“Let’s just say that if UNLV wins, it’s going to be one of the
biggest upsets of the season. Their QB, Caleb Herring, is
definitely the player to watch. I mean, it’s not like he has no ingame experience, but it’s a little different coming on the road
and playing in front of 80,000 screaming Wisconsinites…”
400,000 accounts in 2012, 1.5m in 2013?
From NBN
To William Sutherland
Dear Bill,
Thank you very much for submitting your record of a adult female Polecat on the 3rd of
November 2013 at Duxford, Cambridgeshire, Grid Reference TL452456 to NBN via
irecord.
There have been eleven previous records for Cambridgeshire with the first being seen
in 2009. Three of the seven sexed have also been females. There have been records in
all four seasons. Five of the records have also been of individuals found dead on the
road.
Thanks you for contributing to the NBN database.
Do nest boxes help bumblebees?
•
•
•
•
Nest boxes are a useful means of helping bumblebees
Nest boxes are a complete waste of time
Six studies test this type of nest box
Three (pre-1978, USA or Canada) find 10-40% occupancy
•
Three (post-1990, UK) find very low occupancy 0-1%
• Four studies test underground nest boxes
• Three (pre-1978, USA or Canada) find 29-48%
occupancy
• One (2009, UK) finds 6% occupancy
• Nest box use increased over time for introduced
bees in NZ.
MANAGING FIELD MARGINS FOR BEES
ACTION Leave margin unsprayed (Conservation Headland)
• No more bumblebees than conventional margins (2 studies)
ACTION Allow margin to naturally regenerate
• More bumblebees than cropped margins, in some years (4 studies)
• Value to bumblebees depends on thistle species (2 studies)
ACTION Sow with wildflower seed mix
• Greater abundance and diversity of bumblebees than cropped (4 studies),
grassy (2 studies) or naturally regenerated (1 study) margins
• More long-tongued bumblebees than on annual forage plants (1 study)
ACTION Sow with agricultural bee forage plants (clovers, borage..)
• More bumblebees than cropped or naturally regenerated margins (2 studies)
• More bumblebees than on wildflower seed mix in some years (3 studies)
ACTION Sow with grasses
• Greater abundance (2 studies) and diversity (1 study) of bees than cropped
margins
• More nest-searching queen bumblebees than conventional margins (1 study)
Available from all good
bookshops
Amphibian Conservation
Evidence for the effects
of interventions
Or free as pdf from
Conservationevidence.com
Or search for the
interventions on
ConservationEvidence.com
Rebecca K. Smith & William J. Sutherland
SYNOPSES OF CONSERVATION EVIDENCE SERIES
Synopses
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Bees – done
Birds – done
W European agriculture – online
Amphibians – in press
Bats (Leeds) in press
Agricultural pest management – part completed (joint with Paris)
Aquaculture (Bangor/PML)
Soil ecosystem services – part completed (Manchester/Reading)
Reptiles (Israel)
Carnivores – started 2012 (Duke)
Plants (Bangor)
UK aquatic invasives (Cambridge)
Galapagos invasives (Charles Darwin)
Forests (Israel)
Wetlands (Tour du Valat).
Comparison of traditional review and ConservationEvidence
EU report
Synopsis
Interventions
17
24
Papers testing
36
40
Peer reviewed
29
35
Time
Months? Years?
Minutes
Cost
10,000s+ Euro
Free
Questions?
Answers
Medical practitioners will change their prescribed
treatments based on evidence provided
Lucas et al. 2004, Journal of General Internal Medicine
1.0
0.8
Much more
likely
0.6
More likely
0.4
No change
Less likely
0.2
Much more likely
More likely
No change
Less likely
Much less likely
Much less
likely
0.0
Proportion of practitioners
Proportion of practitioners
Practitioners change management
when given evidence
Intervention
15 17 20 21 22 16 13 27
Effectiveness
NA NA NA NA NA
0
7
5
7
26
8
24
2
23 14
6
9
18 25 28
3
11 19 12 10
9 10 10 13 20 22 27 28 33 40 45 45 48 48 50 50
Interventions
sorted by effectiveness
50
1
4
59 60 66
81
Intervention, sorted by effectiveness
Practitioners changed their opinion about 46% of
interventions after seeing the evidence
Walsh et al submitted
Information unrelated to biodiversity
Amano & Sutherland (2013).
Proceedings B 280, 1756
Issues to consider
• Identifying priorities for monitoring e.g.
earthworms
• Identifying other variables e.g. for
nanotechnology
• Standardising methods
• Monitoring effort
• Standardising data globally
• Capacity building
This is a global collaboration.
Delighted to chat to those interested in:
Identifying horizon scanning issues
Working on a synopsis
Converting review into practice
Finding means of funding!
With grateful thanks for funding to
Arcadia, NERC, ESRC, Sychronicity Earth,
Natural England
Can publish
results