Market trends for convergence: Cellular/Wi-Fi devices, wireless VoIP and converged services

Monica Basso Research Director

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Road to Wired/Wireless Convergence

Converged Network

IP Ethernet

Many Networks

Wireless Voice Data Wired 2006

Steps Along the Road

IP Everywhere IP Cellular Wi-Fi/Cellular Convergence (Voice) Wi-Fi/Cellular Roaming (Voice) Wired/Wireless Backbone Convergence (IMS) Unlicensed Mobile Access (UMA) Wired Access

@

Wireless Access (WiMax) Wi-Fi Voice Wi-Fi/Cellular Convergence (data devices) LAN/WLAN Convergence 2008 2010+

New Cellular-WiFi devices

Cellular/Wi-Fi devices:       Ericsson P990 (IPT client support unclear) Nokia E60, E60 and E70, all with IPT clients for Avaya and Cisco QTEK 9100+8300 Motorola CN620 (and others) Nokia 9500 (Series 80 – unclear whether/which the IPT clients) Alcatel One-touch 701 Wi-Fi only handsets:    BlackBerry 7270 (Avaya IPT) Cisco Wireless IP-phone 7920 Others from Mitsubishi etc

WLAN-Enabled VOIP Device Strategies

WLAN-only soft phones Full member of PBX/IP-PBX Discrete Cellular/WLAN operation Firebox "Deskphone" Seamless desk phone to mobile phone roaming Seamless mobile phone to IP-PBX phone roaming Motorola CN 620

Wireless Voice: Still the Dominant application

 Infrastructure costs 4x basic wireless networking to support VoIP  Only 5 percent terminations  But 80 percent of employees will use it occasionally, e.g. SOHO, Skype...

VoIP over Wireless Cellular replaces fixed lines

– –  Shift from fixed to mobile continues  Mobile replaces corporate PBX – Requires customized contracts Indoor coverage limitations May lose some PBX features

Cellular voice trends

 Costs fall, bundles grow  “Free” voice and data  Operators look for value-added services to preserve the “cash cow”  Operator voice profits fall

Convergence: Carriers and Services

Bundling —

multiple vertical services, but little integration

Access

Cellular WiFi hotspots Fixed telephone Fixed Broadband Broadcast Wireless Broadband

Network Services

Customer care Billing and support Directory services Messaging, e-mail, voicemail Authentication Presence

Content and media

Games Music Video Ring tones News Payment

Convergence —

horizontally, integrated service combinations

Mobile Operator Disintermediation

WiFi and wireless broadband attack 3G DVB and DABS broadcast compete with streaming media 3 rd party media portals (e.g. iTunes) compete with operators Outsourcers and service providers attack value-added applications Internet access and browsers on phones sideline WAP and operator portals Handset e-mail and IM erodes SMS, MMS “Free” VoIP over WiFi / WiMax / Bluetooth erodes voice traffic Bluetooth and WiFi on handsets attacks everything

Recommendations

 Aggregate mobile and remote access technologies into consistent services for users — independent of the access technology.

 Test WLAN-enabled cell phones to assess their impact on the future direction of in-building communications.

 Explore wireless VoIP for special cases such as campus environments with low employee density.

 Prepare for the evolution of the network infrastructure.

 Explore bundled and converged offerings, but resist to operator pressure for value added services that don’t match enterprise needs.