OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!

... and if so, do we have the right tools ?

Lars-Anders Breivik OPNet Oslo, May 2011

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

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Oil drift simulations using two different resolutions Red 4 km model Blue 1.5 km model

32 hour after accident At noon on Aug 1

OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

Oslofjord (300m) and Skag (1.5km). 18 Feb at 00:00

OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

Regional models and model areas Topaz: MyOcean Arctic Monitoring and Forecasting

OPNet, Oslo, May 2011

ROMS 4 km: regional use ROMS Norkyst 800: Coastal applications

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

Shall be capable of utilizing available observations, in particular satellite data OSI SAF, Satellite derived SST (7 days accumulated) and ROMS 4 temperature

OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

NOAA19, channel 1,2,3. May 5, 2011

OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

met.no Sea Ice service analysis, may 5, 2011

OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

Satellite derived SST in the 9. May 2011

OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

High resolution model: Norkyst 800

OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

Eddy shedding in the model. Daily mean surface currents for May 3 - 8, 2010, in the ocean west of Lofoten

OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

Rely on high quality atmospheric forcing, Best possible NWP weather forecast s NWP, regional models, HIRLAM 8 and UM 1 km

OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

OPNet, Oslo, May 2011

Future direction: Coupling of ocean forecast / wave forecast and weather forecast models to optimize the description of the fluxes in the boundary layer.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

Experience with coupling atmosphere - wave Average differences in fluxes of sensible heat 3 months of HIRLAM - WAM coupled / no coupled Cold air outbreak-> Rougher wind sea -> Increased heat flux Sætra and Køltzow (IPY results)

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

OPNet, Oslo, May 2011

Experience with coupling wave - ocean

1-year storm surge simulations

• • • Control run with stress calculated from Large and Pond Experiment using stresses from wave model Verification against sea level observations

From Sætra, Albretsen and Janssen 2007 (JPO)

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

OPNet, Oslo, May 2011

Information- and data- access for users Make information: snapshots and data easy available through modern web interface

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

OPNet, Oslo, May 2011