Improving Juvenile Justice Policy in California A
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Transcript Improving Juvenile Justice Policy in California A
The Public Safety Impacts of Three Strikes in
California:
The Public Safety Impacts of the Three
A
Review
of
the
Research
Strikes Law in California:
Research Highlights
by Barry Krisberg and Sarah Lawrence
Theories Behind Three Strikes Laws
Incapacitation: the removal of offenders from the
community makes it physically impossible for them to
commit further crimes outside of prison
Deterrence: people are discouraged from committing
criminal acts out of fear of punishment
General deterrence: aimed at the public at large using the
threat of punishment
Specific deterrence: aimed at individuals based on
experience of punishment
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Examples of Challenges of Research on Three
Strikes
Establishing cause and effect
Compared to what?
Estimating number of crimes prevented
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Prosecutors’ Perspective on California’s Three
Strikes Law, by CA DA’s Association, 2004
Includes descriptions of approximately 10 individual cases
In one place the report states: “Three Strikes has directly and
significantly acted to reduce crime in CA.”
In another place the report states: “The dramatic drop in CA
crime might be properly attributable to several substantial
factors. It is counterintuitive to think that incarcerating
violent recidivists as felons…was not one of them.”
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Prosecutors’ Perspective (cont’d)
DA’s did not focus public safety impacts but rather
on practical consequences claiming that Three
Strikes…
has
not caused prisons to bankrupt CA
has not caused a decrease in education funding
has not overcrowded prisons
has not required new prisons
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Still Striking Out: Ten Years of California’s
Three Strikes, by Justice Policy Institute, 2004
Report has five key findings, one of which is
related to public safety
Most
strikers in prison for non-violent offenses
Law disproportionately impacts African-Americans
and Latinos
Law has cost taxpayers over $8 billion
46,000 children with incarcerated parent for many
more years because of Three Strikes law
No evidence of a crime reduction benefit
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Impacts of Three Strikes and You’re Out on
Crime Trends in CA and Throughout US
by Elsa Chen, Journal of Contemporary CJ, 2008
Key research question:
Did Three Strikes laws have significantly greater effects on
crime in California than elsewhere in US?
Methods:
State-level data for all 50 states from 1986 – 2005
Compared states with and without Three Strikes laws
Contrasted California with other states
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Impacts of Three Strikes and You’re Out (cont’d)
Key findings:
California’s relatively tough and frequently used law has
not resulted in greater incapacitation than other states’
more limited laws
California’s law extends beyond point of diminishing
marginal returns
Statistically significant decreases in motor vehicle theft
and robbery in CA suggesting some deterrent effect
Essentially no incapacitation effect
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I’d Rather be Hanged for a Sheep than a Lamb:
The Unintended Consequences of Three Strikes
Laws by Radha Iyengar, NBER Working Paper, 2007
Key research question:
What are the impacts of a sentencing policy with large
increases penalties for a wide range of crimes?
Methods:
Sample of criminal records of individuals arrested during
1990-1999
From Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego
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I’d Rather be Hanged for a Sheep than a Lamb
(cont’d)
Key findings:
Reduced overall level of crime
20% reduction in criminal activity for second-strike eligible
offenders and 28% reduction for third-strike eligible offenders
But increased probability of committing violent crime
Increase of 9 percentage points for third-strike eligible offenders
Increase in migration of criminals with second and third
strike eligibility to commit crime in neighboring states
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The Effect of Three-Strikes Legislation on
Serious Crime in California by John L. Worrall, Journal of
Criminal Justice, 2004
Key research question:
Does Three Strikes legislation reduce violent crime?
Methods:
County-level data from 1989 to 2000
Controlled for economic, demographic, and deterrence-
oriented factors
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The Effect of Three-Strikes Legislation on
Serious Crime in California (cont’d)
Findings:
Three-strikes had virtually no deterrent effect on serious crime
Controlling for trends in individual counties, three strikes had
virtually no deterrent or incapacitative effects on serious crime
Violent crimes were reduced when more “three-strikers” were
committed to prison – in other words, three-strikes
incapacitative effect appears to outweigh its deterrent effect
No evidence that three strikes causes an increase in certain
types of crime
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Crime and Punishment in California: The Impact
of Three Strikes and You’re Out by Zimring et al, Institute
of Governmental Studies Press, 1999
Key research question:
Was the Three Strikes law responsible for a major share of
California’s crime decline?
Methods:
Analyzed arrests before and after law went into effect
Based on data from Los Angeles, San Diego, and San
Francisco
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Crime and Punishment in California (cont’d)
Key findings:
The potential maximum crime reduction is fairly small
Individuals eligible for 3rd strike were responsible for 3.3% of all
urban felony arrests and those eligible for a 2nd strike were
responsible for 7.3% of arrests – i.e., 90% of criminals not covered
People eligible for 3rd strike accounted for 3.3% of arrests
before law and 2.7% of arrests after law
Three Strikes law reduced crime by 0.6%
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California Criminal Justice System (Part I Crimes)
2009
Part I Crimes (779,625)1
Adult Part I Arrests (250,653)2
Adult Part I Convictions (96,813)3
Adult Part I
Sentenced to Prison (22,314)4
Source: Crime in California, 2009. California Department of Justice. 1Table 1, 2Table 19, 3Table
40, 4Table 41. http://ag.ca.gov. Accessed on May 5, 2011.
Share of California Prisoners that are 2nd
and 3rd Strikers, 2009
Source: Corrections,Year At A Glance, Fall 2010. California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation.
http://www.cdcr.ca.gov/. Accessed on April 29, 2011.
Number of 2nd and 3rd Strikers in the
CDCR Population, 2001 - 2010
Source: Second and Third Striker Felons in the Adult Institution Population, California Department of Corrections
and Rehabilitation, 2001 - 2010. http://www.cdcr.ca.gov/. Accessed on May 5, 2011.
Highlights
Research findings are often nuanced and narrow
Effects by which strike
Effects by offense type
Effects by age
Effects of deterrence versus incapacitation
Non-public safety effects
Several issues still under debate in research
community
Public safety impacts generally not in areas where
intended
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Research Cited
Chen, Elsa, “Impacts of Three Strikes and You’re Out on Crime
Trends in CA and Throughout US,” Journal of Contemporary
Criminal Justice, Vol. 24, No. 4, (2008).
Iyengar, Radha , “I’d rather be Hanged for a Sheep than a
Lamb The Unintended Consequences of ‘Three-Strikes’ Laws,”
Harvard University and NBER, (2007).
Worrall, John, “The Effect of Three-Strikes Legislation on
Serious Crime in California,” Journal of Criminal Justice, 32,
(2004).
Zimring, Franklin, “Crime and Punishment in California: The
Impact of Three Strikes and You’re Out,” Institute of
Governmental Studies, (1999).
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