Transcript Crop Market Outlook - Department of Economics

2015 Crop Market Outlook
Mar. 17, 2015
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
[email protected]
515-294-9911
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Corn Supply and Use
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
91.9
97.3
95.4
90.6
89.0
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
Yield
(bu./acre)
147.2
123.1
158.1
171.0
166.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,360
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,595
Beg. Stocks
(mil. bu.)
1,128
989
821
1,232
1,777
Imports
(mil. bu.)
29
160
36
25
25
Total Supply
(mil. bu.)
13,517
11,904
14,686
15,472
15,397
Feed & Residual
(mil. bu.)
4,557
4,315
5,036
5,300
5,275
Ethanol
(mil. bu.)
5,000
4,641
5,134
5,200
5,225
Food, Seed, & Other
(mil. bu.)
1,428
1,397
1,367
1,395
1,410
Exports
(mil. bu.)
1,543
730
1,917
1,800
1,850
Total Use
(mil. bu.)
12,528
11,083
13,454
13,695
13,760
Ending Stocks
(mil. bu.)
989
821
1,232
1,777
1,637
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.22
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.50
Sources: USDA-WAOB 2011-14, USDA-OCE 2015
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.0
77.2
76.8
83.7
83.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
41.9
40.0
44.0
47.8
46.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,094
3,042
3,358
3,969
3,800
Beg. Stocks
(mil. bu.)
215
169
141
92
385
Imports
(mil. bu.)
16
41
72
25
20
Total Supply
(mil. bu.)
3,325
3,252
3,570
4,086
4,205
Crush
(mil. bu.)
1,703
1,689
1,734
1,795
1,840
Seed & Residual
(mil. bu.)
88
105
97
116
116
Exports
(mil. bu.)
1,365
1,317
1,647
1,790
1,820
Total Use
(mil. bu.)
3,155
3,111
3,478
3,701
3,775
Ending Stocks
(mil. bu.)
169
141
92
385
430
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.20
9.00
Sources: USDA-WAOB 2011-14, USDA-OCE 2015
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Yields
Top: 2014 Yield
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bu/acre
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Yields
Top: 2014 Yield
Bottom: Change
from last month
Units: Bu/acre
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Corn Production
Country or Region
2013/14
estimate
2014/15
forecast
Million Tons
World
United States
Foreign
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Canada
European Union
FSU-12
Ukraine
Russia
South Africa
China
India
989.6
351.3
638.3
26.0
80.0
22.9
14.2
64.3
46.9
30.9
11.6
15.0
218.5
24.3
989.7
361.1
628.6
23.5
75.0
23.2
11.5
74.2
43.6
28.5
11.5
11.5
215.5
22.5
Change from
February 10
Change from
2013/14
Percent
Percent
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
2.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.0
-14.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.8
-1.5
-9.6
-6.3
1.4
-19.0
15.4
-6.9
-7.9
-1.2
-23.2
-1.4
-7.3
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Soybean Production
Country or
Region
2013/14
estimate
2014/15
forecast
Million Tons
World
United States
Foreign
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Ukraine
India
China
283.7
91.4
192.3
54.0
86.7
8.2
2.8
9.5
12.2
315.1
108.0
207.0
56.0
94.5
8.5
3.9
10.5
12.4
Change from
February 10
Change from
2013/14
Percent
Percent
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.0
18.2
7.6
3.7
9.0
3.7
40.6
10.5
1.2
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds
Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig
Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: 1250 pounds
Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Production
Beef
Pork
Broilers
Turkey
Total meat
Prices
Steers
Hogs
Broilers
Turkey
2014
2015
estimate
forecast
Billion pounds
24.25
24.06
22.84
24.12
38.55
40.03
5.76
6.08
92.17
95.07
Dollars/cwt
154.56
161.88
76.03
55.13
Cents/lb
104.9
99.1
107.6
104.9
Change from
February 10
Change from
2014
Percent
Percent
-0.7
0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.8
5.6
3.8
5.5
3.1
-0.1
-1.6
4.7
-27.5
-1.1
-0.1
-5.5
-2.5
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Grind for Ethanol
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Corn Futures
3.79
3.66
Source: CME Group, 3/17/2015
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Soybean Futures
9.94
9.05
Source: CME Group, 3/17/2015
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2014/15 Crop Margins
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2015/16 Crop Margins
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Record corn and soybean crops, but also record demand
Markets are in a holding pattern, waiting for news
Watching South American crop progress and U.S. acreage
Projected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops
2014/15 2015/16
USDA
USDA
Corn
Soybeans
$3.70
$10.20
$3.50
$9.00
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2014/15
Futures
(3/17/15)
$3.66
$9.94
2015/16
Futures
(3/17/15)
$3.79
$9.05
Thank you for your time!
Any questions?
My web site:
http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/
Iowa Farm Outlook:
http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/
Ag Decision Maker:
http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics