Transcript The Relative Age Theory and Player Selection

The Impact of the Relative Age Effect and
Educational Pathways on Talent ID
Relative Age Effect?
The Relative Age Effect
- the subtle favoring of more physically mature children when children are
grouped together by age for sport.
- It’s easy to forget who’s the youngest or the oldest in the group
- coaches sometimes mistake physical maturity for greater ability.
Paula Jardine – University of Bath
The Relative Age Effect, or as it is sometimes called the Age Bias Effect, is
when elite youth squads tend to be filled by players born in the early part
of the selection year
Coté - Early exposure to essential resources is critical. The Relative Age Effect
In Groups of 4
• Have you experienced the RAE in Talent ID in
your schools, clubs or Development Squads?
• Has it a positive/negative influence on long
term development?
• Does it matter in the long run?
© GAA
Relative Age Effects
Relative Age Effects
Relative Age Effects
300
250
Major League Baseball
(American Data)
200
150
100
50
0
Jan-Mar
Apr-Jun
Jul-Sep
Cote, MacDonald, Baker & Abernethy (2006) JSS
Oct-Dec
Relative Age Effects In Sports
Australian Data
Abernethy & Farrow (2005) ISSP
Facts:
 Half the teams in the tournament below had no players at all
born in November or December.
 The eventual winners of that tournament Mexico had a squad
entirely made up of players born between January and July!
(67% were born in the first half of the selection year 1988)
FIFA 2005 U-17 World Cup Fig 1.1
16.0
14.6
14.0
12.7
% born in each month
12.0
12.0
10.1
10.1
10.0
8.2
7.5
8.0
6.4
5.6
6.0
5.6
3.7
3.4
4.0
2.0
0.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Birth month of players
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Facts: It is also timely to point out that as players age the effects
of the Relative Age Effect disappear as displayed by fig 1.2 which
shows the distribution of birth months for players from the FIFA
2006 World Cup in Germany.
FIFA 2006 World Cup - Fig 1.2
12.0
10.2
10.2
% born in each month
10.0
9.1
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.2
8.5
7.7
8.0
7.1
6.8
6.5
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Birth month of players
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Relative Age Implications
• Older more physically developed players are more likely to be
selected & therefore exposed to a high performance
environment - Double Advantage
• Dropout - Younger less developed players aren’t selected &
miss out on high performance inputs
– Dropout (Barnsley & Thompson 1988; Helsen et al., 1998)
• Impact on self-perceptions, self-appraisals and motivation
– Self-esteem (Barnsley et al., 2004)
– School Attendance (Carroll, 1992; Cobley et al., in press)
Relative Age Theory
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Gaelic Relative Elite Age Theory - some Gaelic players may miss out on a spot at the top level. This is
simply due to the month that they are born on. Development difference greatest at U14/U16.
Even when groupings are limited to 1 year categories, e.g. U15; U16; U17; U18, development
differences can be great. In such cases players born in January and December will have almost a year
difference in their age.
Ulster Elite Squads U16 – 7 times more people born in first 3 months than last 3
3 out of 4 born in first half of the year
Age factored performance
•
Taking the elite squad and testing their performance in several areas the result was that
the older players outweighed the younger always proving age is a factor.
•
Question: Do we take a short term view of what is rather than what might be???
Antrim Football
Development Squads
Ulster Hurling Development
Squads
Donegal U-18 Hurling 2010
Colaisti Innis Eoghain
Omagh CBS Squads 2011
St Patrick’s Dungannon
Squads 2011
Ladies U-15 Elite Camps
Tyrone U-21s 2011
Senior County Ladies
Senior Inter-County Men
Discussion Points
• There can never be a level playing field simply because everyone develops
at their own rate and someone will always be younger or less developed
than someone else until they reach senior football.
• A possible compromise is to have a yearly rotation in selection periods and
this way at some stage everyone will have a higher relative age.
• Another possibility is to change the mentality of youth coaches to look
more at the technical & mindset aspects rather than physical aspects of a
player. This again may prove difficult as in the real world all coaches are
judged by their results on the field not on their developmental results(win
by Friday approach)
• Another possibility at representative level is to pick two or bigger squads
so that there are more options then to pick players purely with an eye to
the future who can be exposed to the different, hopefully improved,
standard of coaching.
• Group players with similar physical attributes
Educational Pathways: Discuss
• Educational pathways taken by senior county
players?
• Is the player with the “lunch box” under their arm a
thing of the past?
• Do players need to attend 3rd Level Education to
progress to senior county?
• Do the majority of inter-county players follow the
traditional route – Devel. Squads, Minor, U-21?
Senior Inter-County Players
Pathways to Senior County
Are our structures delivering?
Ulster Minor All-Ireland Titles:
• 1954-1964 None
• 1965-1975 2 Derry & Tyrone
• 1976-1986 2 Down & Derry
• 1987-1997 2 Down & Derry
• 1998-2009 8 Tyrone x4, Down x2,
Derry/Armagh x1
Ulster All-Ireland Minor Success
The problem with Talent ID
References
• PPT: A Multilevel Analysis of Youth Sport & Coaching
– Jean Coté
• Article: The Relative Age Effect in Youth Soccer
Players from Spain – David Gutierrez Del Campo
• PPT: Birth date, Relative Age & Athlete Development
– Joe Baker
• Article: Relative Age Theory – Paula Jardine
• PPT: What Studies of Elite Athletes tell us about
promoting long-term development – Joe Baker