Transcript 11A 2 Ryan Lanyon

Transportation Trends
Automated Vehicles:
The technology that will change our mobility experience
Ryan Lanyon
Program Manager, Transportation Services
City Toronto
ACT Canada Sustainable Mobility Summit
December 3, 2014
Page 1
Transportation Trends
“There will come a time when driving a car is like
riding the horse. Some people will still like to do it,
but most of us won’t.” – Peter Schwartz
Page 2
Themes
• The Vehicle
• The Changing Trip Experience
• Impacts on Mobility Choices
Transportation
Trends
• Considerations for Municipalities
• TDM Efforts
Page 3
Levels of Automation
0. No Automation
1. Function-specific Automation
•
e.g. automatic transmission, cruise control
2. Combined Function Automation
Transportation
Trends
•
e.g. automatic parking,
adaptive cruise control with lane
centering
3. Limited Self-Driving Automation
•
e.g. the driver is available, but can cede control
4. Full Self-Driving Automation
•
e.g. there is no human driver, nor is a passenger required
Source: US Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
Page 4
Driver as a Passenger
Transportation Trends
Video modified from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMx-iGFys6s
Page 5
Time
Transportation Trends
Page 6
Inside the Car
Transportation Trends
Page 7
An Extension of the Home?
Transportation Trends
Page 8
The Promise of Safety
Transportation Trends
Page 9
Levels of Automation
0. No Automation
1. Function-specific Automation
•
e.g. cruise control
2. Combined Function Automation
Transportation
Trends
•
e.g. adaptive cruise control
with lane centering
3. Limited Self-Driving Automation
•
e.g. the driver is available, but can cede control
Disruptive
4. Full Self-Driving Automation
•
e.g. there is no human driver, nor is a passenger required
Source: US Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
Page 10
Total Automation
“Automation could be the catalyst that brings
together personal mobility and public
transportation,” - Sven Beiker, of the Center for
Automotive Research at Stanford (CARS).
Transportation Trends
Source: http://www.govtech.com/transportation/GT-Taking-Driverless-Cars-to-the-Next-Level.html
Disruptions
•Transit, taxis, auto ownership, school buses
•New markets – those who could not drive
•Displacement of old technology and patterns
Page 11
Total Automation
• Two directions
• Continued/increased auto-ownership
• Customized cars for different needs
• Further extension of your personality
Transportation
Trends
• Decreased auto-ownership
• Multiple commuting trips, shared use
• Automated vehicles as taxis
• Impact on transit
• Compact urban environment – virtually none
• Suburban low-density environment – complete overhaul
Page 12
Auto Ownership Model
Cost of parking at work > cost of return trip to home
Transportation Trends
Car + Driver
Driverless
Car
passenger
no passenger
no passenger
passenger
Page 13
Trends in Mobility Patterns
•
•
•
•
•
•
Repopulating the core
Reduced interest in auto ownership
Increased diversity in modal choice
Increased use of sustainable modes
Greater acceptance of technology
Mobile technology and mobility options
Transportation Trends
Page 14
Reduced Auto Ownership
Transportation Trends
?
Page 15
Reduced Auto Ownership
• Elimination of sunken investment
• Potential models
•
•
•
•
Subscription with unlimited use
Membership fee with per-trip pricing based on volume
Per-trip pricing
Time-based pricing?
Transportation Trends
• Customization of the experience
•
•
Vehicle
Seat adjustment, environment, entertainment
Page 16
A Service for All
Transportation Trends
Page 17
AVs: Other Applications
Transportation Trends
Page 18
Challenges
Social Acceptance
•Public Transit – Leave the driving to someone else
•Automated and Connected Vehicles – Leave the driving to something
else
•Early adoption: Commercial and freight vehicles?
Transportation Trends
Regulatory Acceptance
•Liability
•Appropriate decision-making and driving behaviour?
•
Speed limit vs. average travel speed
Page 19
Considerations for Municipalities
• Engineering
•
•
•
Traffic systems
Geometry: redesign of streets; dedicated lanes?
Maintenance – where are the lanes?
•
Interior drop-offs?
Transportation
Trends
• Planning and parking requirements
• Enforcement
• Emergency vehicles
•
Connectivity?
Page 20
Considerations in TDM
• The ‘spare time’ advantage will be reduced
• How to encourage carpooling in a framework
where transportation is sold as a service?
• Importance of pricing to reduce transportation
demand
Transportation Trends
•
•
•
•
•
Per trip?
Per unit of distance?
Per unit of time?
Peak period premiums?
Class of service? E.g. SOV or carpool
Page 21
Transition Period
Transportation Trends
Page 22
Acknowledgments
• CAVCOE and Conference Board of Canada
• Transportation Research Board (TRB)
• National Association of City Transportation
Officials (NACTO)
• Antoine Belaieff, Metrolinx
• Stephen Buckley & Joey Reeder, City of
Toronto
Transportation Trends
Page 23
Transportation Trends
Thank You
Ryan Lanyon
Program Manager, Transportation Services
City of Toronto
416-392-3570
[email protected]
@ryan_lanyon
Page 24