Transcript ppt - Cosmo
First experiments with COSMO-ME-EPS Francesca Marcucci, Lucio Torrisi with the contribution of Valeria Montesarchio, ISMAR-CNR CNMCA, National Meteorological Center,Italy Outline • The Ensemble Data Assimilation at CNMCA: Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) • Towards the probabilistic forecast: the COSMO-ME EPS • First runs with COSMO-ME EPS • A sea state EPS: NETTUNO-EPS • Future developments CNMCA NWP SYSTEM since 1 June 11 EnKF DA Control State Analysis The operational CNMCA short-range ensemble prediction system is based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) approach (Bonavita, Torrisi and Marcucci, 2008, 2010), for the data assimilation component (estimation of the initial conditions), and the COSMO regional model for the prognostic one. LETKF analysis ensemble (40+1 members) every 6h using TEMP, PILOT, SYNOP, SHIP, BUOY, VAD/Wind Profilers, AMDAR-ACAR-AIREP, MSG3-MET7 AMV, MetopA-B scatt. winds, NOAA/MetopA AMSUA radiances + Land SAF snow mask, IFS SST analysis once a day 10 km 45 v.l. COSMO-ME (7km) ITALIAN MET SERVICE 2.8 km 50 v.l. 7 km 40 v.l. - compressible equations parameterized convection Local Area Modelling: COSMO - compressible equations explicit convection The Ensemble Data Assimilation at CNMCA Forecast Step BG Forecasts Actually only the assimilation is based on the ensemble technique The 40 + 1 forecast members are run up to 9 hours in order to produce the BG ensemble for the next analysis step Analysis Step time Initial conditions Initial conditions time BG Forecasts The operational forecast up to 48 hours is done using the deterministic member Analysis Step CONTROL RUN BG Forecast Step ENS MEAN Initial conditions time BG Forecasts Toward a probabilistic forecast system: the COSMO-ME EPS The implementation of a short range EPS based on COSMO-ME is straightforward “extending” the forecast members integration Analysis Step BG Forecast Step Analysis Step BG BG Forecasts IC time A first implementation of COSMO-ME EPS has being tested at CNMCA in the framework of MYWAVE project ( short range sea state EPS based on COSMO-ME EPS: NETTUNO EPS) The main characteristics of COSMO-ME EPS are: Domain and resolution: COSMO model is integrated on the same domain of the CNMCA-LETKF system. IC and BC: initial conditions are derived from the CNMCA-LETKF system. Lateral boundaries conditions are from IFS deterministic run perturbed using ECMWF-EPS. Model error: stochastics physics perturbation tendencies will be evaluated. Forecast range: the 40+1 COSMO forecast members are running up to 48 hours in order to produce the wind forecast to be given as input to the NETTUNO system at 00 UTC. 7 First run with COSMO-ME EPS 40 members with 0.09° grid spacing, 26km (18hPa) model top, 45 vertical levels, IC from CNMCA LETKF, BC from deterministic IFS perturbed by ECMWF EPS 27 nov 2012 00 UTC 27 nov 2012 +18-24 +24-30 +30-36 CONTROL RUN EPS NOSP MEAN EPS NOSP PROB20 COSMO-ME EPS +36-42 NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS part of MYWAVE project NETTUNO is a high resolution local scale wave forecast system operational in the Mediterranean Sea based on the COSMO-ME and WAM models (In cooperation with ISMAR-CNR of Venice) The sea state probabilistic forecast is obtained driving the wave model using the hourly COSMO-ME EPS wind forecast members The NETTUNO-EPS consists of 40+1 members, that are integrated at 00 UTC up to 48 hour forecast in the Mediterranean basin 12 NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS 22 may 2013 Time evolution of the ensemble mean ens mean Meeting 27 Maggio 2013 13 NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS Time evolution of the ensemble spread ens spread Meeting 27 Maggio 2013 14 NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS ens mean 06 ens spread 06 ens mean 12 ens spread 12 Meeting 27 Maggio 2013 15 NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS Confronto media-deviazione standard ens mean 18 ens spread 18 ens mean 24 ens spread 24 Meeting 27 Maggio 2013 16 NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS Confronto media-deviazione standard ens mean 30 ens spread 30 ens mean 36 ens spread 36 Meeting 27 Maggio 2013 17 NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS Confronto media-deviazione standard ens mean 42 ens spread 42 ens mean 48 ens spread 48 Meeting 27 Maggio 2013 18 Future Developments • Calibration/tuning of the COSMO-ME EPS • Evaluation of stochastic physics impact over a long period • Validation of the NETTUNO-EPS • Soil moisture perturbation Thanks for your attention!