Transcript 132864_Algerian Succe

Algerian Succession – Key Power Groups
Primary
Decisionmaking and
influencing
power
Presidency
DRS
(Military
Intelligence)
ANP
(People’s Armed
Forces)
Cabinet
The strong influence of
civil war veterans is
evidenced by the
ministerial post devoted
to the group
Private
Sector/
Private
Individuals
Veterans &
Children of
Deceased
Council of
Ministers
Advisory
power
Governing
Coalition
(FLN, MSP, RND)
UGTA
(Official public sector
trade union)
Constituents of the CNCD protest
movement - evidence that the
protest leaders possess nuisance
value at best
Media
Public Sector
Legal
Opposition
Parliament
Local Government
Protest
power
With a million members, the
pro-government UGTA is a
crucial hinge group whose
participation in protests
would be a major sign of the
power balance shifting
Religious
groups?
Elected Institutions
Outlawed
Opposition
Independent
Trade Unions
Unelected Institutions
Human
Rights
Groups
Civil Society
Algerian Succession – Summary of Key Individuals
President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika
GOVERNMENT
STATE SECURITY
DRS**
Prime Minister Ahmed
Ouyahia – Head RND Party
BUSINESS/PRIVATE
ANP*
Justice M Tayeb Belaiz
Lt Gen Mohamed “Toufik”
Mediene
C-o-Staff Lt Gen Ahmed Gaid
Saleh
Saeed Bouteflika ^
Vice-PM Noureddine Yazid
Zerhouni
Finance M Karim Djoudi
C-Espionage Maj Gen Ahmed
Kherfi
Ground Force Maj Gen
Ahcen Tafer
Abdur Bouteflika ^
Defence M. Gen (Rt)
Abdelmalek Guenaizia
Energy M Youcef Yousfi
Army Security Maj Gen
Mhenna Djebbar
Air Force Maj Gen
Abdelkader Lounes
Amal Lamari ~
Pharmalliance SARL
Defence Sec Gen Maj Gen
Ahmed Senhadji *
Public Works M Amar Ghoul
- MSP
External Security Maj Gen
Rachid Laalali
Navy Maj Gen Malik Naceb
Nourredine Cherouati
CEO Sonatrach
Interior M Dahou Ould
Kablia
M. Of State Abdelaziz
Belkhadem
Air Defence Maj Gen
Mohamed Baaziz
Mohamed Meziane
Fmr CEO Sonatrach
Foreign M Mourad Medelci
Veterans M Mohammed
Cherif Abbes
Special Forces Brig Gen
Rachid Saoudi
POLICE***/SURETE***
Education M Boubekeur Ben
Bouzid
FORMER GOVERNMENT/MILITARY
Fmr Energy M Chakib Khelil
Fmr Head DRS General
Mohamed Betchine
Gendarmerie Maj Gen
Ahmed Boustila
18 MONTH
TRAJECTORY
Upward
Trajectory
Neutral
Trajectory
Downward
Trajectory
FACTION LOYALTY
Surete Nationale Maj Gen
Abdelghani Hamel
OPPOSITION/ TRADE UNIONS
Bouteflika
Loyalist
Head DRC Said Sadi
Fmr Telecoms M Bessalah
Head MSP Bouguerra
Soultani
Fmr Commerce M Djaboub
Mediene
Loyalist
Head Workers Party Louis a
Hanoune
Inconclusive/
Unaligned
* Reports to Defence Minister ** Nominal reporting line to Army Chief *** Reports to Interior Minister ^ Brother to President ~ Daughter of deceased Deputy Head of DRS
Algerian Succession – Key State Security Individuals
President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika
18 MONTH
TRAJECTORY
STATE SECURITY
DRS**
Lt Gen Mohamed “Toufik”
Mediene
Lt Gen Mohamed “Toufik” Mediene
C-Espionage Maj Gen Ahmed
Kherfi
C-Espionage Maj Gen Ahmed Kherfi
Army Security Maj Gen
Mhenna Djebbar
Army Security Maj Gen Mhenna Djebbar
External Security Maj Gen
Rachid Laalali
External Security Maj Gen Rachid Laalali
Upward
Trajectory
Neutral
Trajectory
ANP*
C-o-Staff Lt Gen Ahmed Gaid
Saleh
C-o-Staff Lt Gen Ahmed Gaid Saleh
Downward
Trajectory
Ground Force Maj Gen
Ahcen Tafer
Ground Force Maj Gen Ahcen Tafer
FACTION LOYALTY
Air Force Maj Gen
Abdelkader Lounes
Air Force Maj Gen Abdelkader Lounes
Navy Maj Gen Malik Naceb
Navy Maj Gen Malik Naceb
Air Defence Maj Gen
Mohamed Baaziz
Air Defence Maj Gen Mohamed Baaziz
Special Forces Brig Gen
Rachid Saoudi
Special Forces Brig Gen Rachid Saoudi
Bouteflika
Loyalist
Mediene
Loyalist
POLICE***/SURETE***
Air Defence Maj Gen
Mohamed Baaziz
Air Defence Maj Gen Mohamed Baaziz
Special Forces Brig Gen
Rachid Saoudi
Special Forces Brig Gen Rachid Saoudi
Inconclusive/
Unaligned
* Reports to Defence Minister ** Nominal reporting line to Army Chief *** Reports to Interior Minister ^ Brother to President Ϯ Reports to Defence Minister
Algerian Succession – Key Government Individuals
18 MONTH
TRAJECTORY
GOVERNMENT
Prime Minister Ahmed
Ouyahia
Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia
Vice-PM Noureddine Yazid
Zerhouni
Demoted from interior ministry in 2010 reshuffle. Seen as being old and having mishandled the Tounsi murder has fallen out of favour with Bouteflika
Defence M. Abdelmalek
Guenaizia
Defence M. Abdelmalek Guenaizia
Defence Sec Gen Maj Gen
Ahmed Senhadji Ϯ
Defence Sec Gen Maj Gen Ahmed Senhadji Ϯ
Interior M Dahou Ould
Kablia
Promoted from deputy position in 2010 reshuffle. MALG leader since 1990, close ally to Bouteflika and Zerhouni. Ties to DRS see him as an effective
balance candidate. Possible succession candidate
Foreign M Mourad Medelci
Foreign M Mourad Medelci
Justice M Tayeb Belaiz
Justice M Tayeb Belaiz
Finance M Karim Djoudi
Finance M Karim Djoudi
Upward
Trajectory
Neutral
Trajectory
Downward
Trajectory
FACTION LOYALTY
Bouteflika
Loyalist
Energy M Youcef Yousfi
Energy M Youcef Yousfi
Water M Abdelmalek Sellal
Water M Abdelmalek Sellal
M. Of State Abdelaziz
Belkhadem
M. Of State Abdelaziz Belkhadem
Veterans M Mohammed
Cherif Abbes
Veterans M Mohammed Cherif Abbes
* Reports to Defence Minister ** Nominal reporting line to Army Chief *** Reports to Interior Minister ^ Brother to President Ϯ Reports to Defence Minister
Mediene
Loyalist
Inconclusive/
Unaligned
Algerian Succession – Presidency
President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika
Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia
Vice-PM Noureddine Yazid Zerhouni
Saeed Bouteflika
Abdulla Bouteflika
Bouteflika
Loyalist
Mediene
Loyalist
Inconclusive/
Unaligned
Official Structure
Factional Members
Algerian Succession – DRS
General Mohamed “Toufik” Mediene
Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia
Vice-PM Noureddine Yazid Zerhouni
Saeed Bouteflika
Abdulla Bouteflika
Bouteflika
Loyalist
Mediene
Loyalist
Inconclusive/
Unaligned
Official Structure
Factional Members
Algerian Succession – ANP
General Mohamed “Toufik” Mediene
Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia
Vice-PM Noureddine Yazid Zerhouni
Saeed Bouteflika
Abdulla Bouteflika
Bouteflika
Loyalist
Mediene
Loyalist
Inconclusive/
Unaligned
Official Structure
Factional Members
Algerian Succession – Notes
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Economic Interests
–
Private, Public, Countries, Individuals, FDI, major projects, Algerian local cos and ownership
AQIM and connections to DRS
Regionalism - Tribal issues – Berber, Touareg etc - http://themoornextdoor.wordpress.com/2010/03/07/addendum-on-regionalism/
Western Sahara, relationship to Morocco
Migration
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Political Timeline