Transcript Oct.17 - AccountingCircle.org

The State of the San Diego Economy:
Where Have We Been, Where Are We Headed?
October 17, 2013
Welcome
Dr. Ronald Uhlig
Dean, School of Business
and Management
Introduction
Dr. Michael R. Cunningham
President, National University
Chancellor, National University
System
Presentation
Kelly Cunningham
Senior Fellow and Economist,
National University System
The State of the San Diego Economy:
Where Have We Been, Where Are We Headed?
October 17, 2013
Kelly Cunningham
Economist, Senior Fellow
www.nusinstitute.org
The State of the San Diego Economy:
•
•
•
•
Great Recession “ended” in 2009
National indicators of recovery
State and regional indicators
San Diego’s economic interdependence and
independence/strengths and weaknesses
– Industries
– Jobs
• San Diego demographics
• Our economic outlook: opportunities
– San Diego region
– National University
– Individual
Debt Limit/Default – October 17, 2013
• If we hit this date without raising the debt limit the U.S. is not going
to automatically default on the debt.
– At this time, the Treasury would have to start prioritizing payments, meaning
picking and choosing who gets paid first.
• If a government default occurs, it will be due to the government’s
unwillingness to pay, not on ability to pay.
– There is plenty of cash on hand to make debt obligation payments, but there is
not enough money to pay for all government programs. Congress should
eliminate programs that can’t be justified
– Raising the debt limit amounts to putting off paying the government’s bills.
• Borrowing more and going further into debt only perpetuates the day
of reckoning when we lose the world reserve currency status.
– This would be the most traumatic event that could happen to the US, worse than
Pearl Harbor, 9/11, and the 2008 financial collapse; and we are dangerously
approaching this possibility.
• “The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt
limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S.
Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend
on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our
Government’s reckless fiscal policies.” - Senator Barack Obama, 2006
U.S. Job Loss and Recovery
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Employment Population Ratio, Participation Rate
Alternative measures of labor underutilization
3rd Qtr, 2012 through 2nd Qtr 2013 Averages
U-1: Persons unemployed 15
weeks or longer, as a percent of
the civilian labor force.
U-2: Job losers and persons who
completed temporary jobs, as a
percent of the civilian labor force.
U-3: Total unemployed, as a
percent of the civilian labor
force (this is the definition
used for the official
unemployment rate).
U-4: Total unemployed plus
discouraged workers.
U-5: Includes U-4 plus all other
marginally attached workers.
U-6: Includes U-5 plus total
employed part time for
economic reasons.
State
United States
Nevada
California
Rhode Island
Mississippi
New Jersey
North Carolina
Illinois
Michigan
Georgia
Oregon
Substate areas:
Los Angeles County
New York City
SAN DIEGO COUNTY
U-1
4.2
6.1
5.4
5.6
5.0
5.7
5.4
5.3
4.9
5.1
4.2
U-2
4.2
5.9
5.2
5.5
4.7
5.2
4.8
5.0
4.7
4.2
4.8
Measure
U-3 U-4
7.8 8.3
10.4 11.3
9.5 10.1
9.5 9.9
9.3 9.9
9.1 9.7
9.1 9.5
9.0 9.5
8.9 9.5
8.8 9.6
8.7 9.0
U-5
9.2
12.5
11.1
10.7
11.1
10.6
10.5
10.3
10.6
10.5
9.9
U-6
14.3
19.0
18.3
15.9
15.8
15.7
15.6
16.1
16.1
15.6
16.9
6.0 5.7 10.3 11.0 12.0 20.5
5.9 5.4 8.8 9.8 10.9 15.1
8.2
est. 16.3
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
San Diego U-6 estimate by National University System Institute
for Policy Research.
Unemployment rate- labor underutilization
18
16
Unemployment rate
14
12
10
8
6
4
Unemployed plus marginally attached and employed
part-time for economic reasons (U-6)
2
Unemployed rate (U-3)
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Change in U.S. Employment by Age
Index: Jan 2007=100
130
125
55 years and over
120
25 to 54 years
55+ year olds:
34% of workers
in 2013
115
110
55+ year olds:
25% of workers
in 2007
105
100
95
90
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Unemployment Rate Comparison
12.0%
California
11.0%
SAN DIEGO
10.0%
United States
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Seasonally Adjusted
9.0%
San Diego Metropolitan Area
Gross Domestic Product
GDP
Year (Billions)
2001 $114.475
2002 $123.271
2003 $131.024
2004 $141.494
2005 $151.388
2006 $159.582
2007 $166.017
2008 $167.732
2009 $163.644
2010 $163.875
2011 $169.888
2012 $177.410
2013e $185.416
Percent of
Calif. U.S.
8.54% 1.08%
8.89% 1.12%
8.97% 1.14%
9.01% 1.15%
8.96% 1.16%
8.87% 1.15%
8.87% 1.15%
8.83% 1.14%
9.00% 1.14%
8.88% 1.10%
8.90% 1.09%
8.86% 1.09%
8.86% 1.10%
Constant Dollars*
S.D. Cal. U.S.
1.3% 0.1% 0.9%
5.2% 1.9% 1.8%
3.9% 3.1% 2.8%
5.1% 4.6% 3.8%
3.8% 4.2% 3.4%
2.2% 3.3% 2.7%
1.1% 1.0% 1.8%
-0.8% -0.4% -0.3%
-4.5% -5.1% -2.8%
-0.4% 0.3% 2.5%
2.1% 1.2% 1.8%
2.7% 3.5% 2.8%
1.8% 1.9% 1.5%
*Adjusted by GDP implicit price deflator.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S.Department of Commerce;
e: estimate by National University System Institute for Policy Research.
Ranking of
Gross Domestic
Products
2012 U.S. Dollars
Rank Countries
WORLD
1 UNITED STATES
2 China
3 Japan
4 Germany
5 France
6 United Kingdom
7 Brazil
8 Russia
9 Italy
CALIFORNIA
10 India
11 Canada
12 Australia
13 Spain
14 Mexico
15 South Korea
16 Indonesia
17 Turkey
18 Netherlands
19 Saudi Arabia
20 Switzerland
21 Iran
22 Sweden
23 Norway
24 Poland
25 Belgium
26 Argentina
27 Taiwan
28 Austria
29 South Africa
30 United Arab Emirates
(billions)
$72,216
16,245
8,221
5,960
3,430
2,614
2,477
2,253
2,030
2,014
2,003
1,842
1,821
1,543
1,324
1,177
1,130
879
788
771
711
631
549
524
500
490
484
475
474
395
384
384
Rank
31
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
Countries
Venezuela
Colombia
Thailand
Denmark
Malaysia
Singapore
Nigeria
Chile
Hong Kong
Israel
Egypt
Philippines
Greece
Finland
Pakistan
Iraq
Portugal
Ireland
Algeria
Kazakhstan
Peru
Czech Republic
Qatar
Kuwait
SAN DIEGO
Ukraine
New Zealand
Romania
Vietnam
Hungary
Bangladesh
Angola
(billions)
$381.3
369.0
366.0
314.9
303.7
276.5
270.2
268.2
263.3
257.5
256.7
250.2
249.2
247.6
225.6
212.5
212.4
210.4
209.3
202.7
198.9
195.7
192.4
184.5
177.4
176.2
169.8
169.4
155.6
125.7
123.0
115.2
Source: International Monetary Fund; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis;
National University System Institute for Policy Research.
Comparison of Annual Change in GDP
SAN DIEGO, California, U.S.
5.0%
4.0%
Adjusted for Inflation
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
SAN DIEGO
-3.0%
California
-4.0%
United States
-5.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
e: estimate, f: forecast by National University System Institute for Policy Research.
San Diego GDP by Industry - 2012
Trade
10.6%
Manufacturing
8.5%
Health care, social
assist
Finance, insurance
5.8%
5.0%
Transportation,
utilities
3.6%
Information
3.5%
Professional,
business services
15.8%
Real estate, rental,
leasing
17.4%
Government
17.8%
Accommodations,
food services
3.5%
Construction
3.2%
Other services
2.3%
Educational
services
1.2% Arts,
entertainment,
Natural resources, recreation
mining
1.0%
.5%
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013e
2014f
Defense Spending Percent of San Diego GDP
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
San Diego GDP by Industry: 2001-12
Natural
resources, mining
Educational
services
Arts, entertainment, recreation
Other services
$25.0
Accommodations,
food serivces
Construction
$20.0
$15.0
Information
Finance,
insurance
Manufacturing
$10.0
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
$0.0
Professional, bus
services
Government
2003
Trade
2002
$5.0
2001
Chained 2005 Dollars (billions)
$30.0
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; National University System Institute of Policy Research.
Real estate,
rental, leasing
San Diego GDP by Industry
Trade
10.6%
Professional,
business services
15.8%
Real estate, rental,
leasing
17.4%
Industry
Health care, social
All industry total
assist
Finance, insurance
Real estate, rental, leasing
5.8%
5.0%
Manufacturing
Transportation, utilities
Transportation,
8.5%
utilities
Information
3.6%
Manufacturing
Information
Government
3.5%
Finance, insurance
Accommodations, Professional, business services
Trade
food services
3.5%
Construction
Construction
Health care, social assistance
3.2%
Natural resources, mining
Other services Arts, entertainment, recreation
2.3%
Educational services
Educational
Accommodations, food services
services
Government
Other services
1.2%
17.8%
GDP
Jobs Production
(millions) (000s) per Job
$169,888 1,833
$92,700
30,621
103
297,600
5,764
36
188,800
5,821
31
159,000
13,488
102
132,700
31,327
333
94,000
7,573
87
87,200
27,865
326
85,500
17,280
220
78,500
5,609
81
69,200
10,108
154
65,800
891
21
43,200
1,860
46
43,200
1,786
43
40,000
5,718
143
40,000
4,177
107
39,000
Arts,
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
entertainment,
Natural resources, recreation
mining
1.0%
Finance, insurance
.5%
4.7%
Manufacturing
5.5%
Health care, social
assistance
8.4%
Employment by Industry
Transportation,
utilities
2.0%
Information
1.7%
Accommodations,
food services
7.8%
Trade
12.0%
Construction
4.4%
Other services
5.8%
Professional,
business services
17.8%
Government
18.2%
Real estate,
rental, leasing
5.6%
Educational
services
2.3%
Arts,
entertainment,
Natural resources,recreation
2.5%
mining
1.1%
Location Quotient
• Location quotient (LQ) is a way of quantifying how concentrated a
particular industry, cluster, occupation, or demographic group is in a
region as compared to the nation.
– It can reveal what makes a particular region unique in comparison to the national
average.
• Location Quotient formula =
(SD industry employment / SD total employment)
(U.S. Industry employment / U.S. total employment)
• LQ > 1.0 San Diego has higher concentration of production or
employment the national average.
• LQ = 1.0 San Diego has the same share of regional production or
employment as the nation.
• LQ < 1.0 San Diego has a lower concentration of production or
employment the national average.
San Diego Location Quotient by Industry
Industry
Government-federal military
Real estate, rental, leasing
Government-federal civilian
Professional, scientific, technical
Manufacturing-Durable goods
Accommodation, food services
Arts, entertainment, recreation
Administrative, waste management
Trade
Information
Other services
Construction
Government-state, local
Educational services
Health care, social assistance
Transportation, utilities
Management companies, enterprises
Finance, insurance
Manufacturing-Nondurable goods
Natural resources, mining
2001
7.29
1.37
1.47
1.25
0.69
1.15
1.00
0.95
0.88
1.02
1.10
1.18
1.02
0.74
0.77
0.46
0.89
0.65
0.39
0.44
2012
4.97
2.39
1.35
1.35
1.24
1.11
1.05
0.97
0.91
0.89
0.89
0.87
0.86
0.79
0.75
0.70
0.68
0.59
0.45
0.20
Change
(2.32)
1.02
(0.12)
0.10
0.55
(0.04)
0.04
0.01
0.03
(0.12)
(0.21)
(0.31)
(0.16)
0.05
(0.02)
0.24
(0.20)
(0.05)
0.06
(0.24)
San Diego, California, U.S. Jobs
Nonfarm payroll employment seasonally adjusted
Seasonally Adjusted Index: Jan2002=1.00
1.08
1.06
1.04
1.02
1.00
SAN DIEGO
0.98
U.S.
0.96
California
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; California Employment
Development Department; National University System Institute for Policy Research.
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0.94
Nonfarm Payroll Industry Jobs
1,310,000
1,300,000
Seasonally Adjusted
1,290,000
1,280,000
1,270,000
1,260,000
1,250,000
1,240,000
1,230,000
1,220,000
1,210,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: California Employment Development Department; National University System
Institute for Policy Research.
2013
Change in San Diego Jobs by Industry Sectors,
August 2012- August 2013
Accommodation, Food Services
Health Care, Social Assistance
Management, Admin, Support
Trade (Retail, Wholesale)
State & Local Government
Educational Services
Transportation, Warehousing, Utils
Construction
Professional, Scientific, Technical
Other Services
Natural resources, mining
Information
Finance, Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, Leasing
Federal Government
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation
Manufacturing
-3,000 -2,000 -1,000
0
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Manufacturing Employment
125,000
120,000
115,000
110,000
105,000
100,000
95,000
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
90,000
Aerospace
7,000
6,800
6,600
6,400
6,200
6,000
5,800
5,600
5,400
5,200
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
5,000
Shipbuilding
8,000
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Change in Jobs among Top-Five San Diego DefenseDependent Industries vs. All Other Private Sector Industries
1.08
Federal budget deliberations
1.07
Other private sector industries
Defense-dependent industries
1.06
Index: Jan 2011= 1.00
1.05
Fiscal cliff -sequestration
deliberations
Aug 2012
Debt-limit
deliberations
Aug 2011
1.04
1.03
1.02
Sequestration
implementation starting
Mar 2013
1.01
1.00
0.99
0.98
0.97
2011
2012
2013
Professional, Scientific, Technical Services
125,000
120,000
115,000
110,000
105,000
100,000
95,000
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
90,000
San Diego International Trade
with Mexico and Rest of the World
Exports to rest of world
Billions
$30.0
$25.0
Imports from rest of world
Exports to Mexico
$20.0
Imports from Mexico
$15.0
$10.0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division; National University System
Institute for Policy Research.
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
$0.0
2002
2001
2000
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
$5.0
San Diego Industry Employment Change
1.02
Index: 1Q2008=100.0
1.00
0.98
0.96
0.94
Technology Sectors
Total, All Industries
0.92
Private Industry
e: estimate
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2Qe
1Qe
4Q
3Q
2Q
1Q
4Q
3Q
2Q
1Q
4Q
3Q
2Q
1Q
4Q
3Q
2Q
1Q
4Q
3Q
2Q
1Q
0.90
2013
San Diego technology companies account for: Average Wage (2012)
Establishments: 6%
Employment: 11%
San Diego (overall) $54,000
Payrolls: 21%
Average Wage: 190%
Tech Average
$102,600
San Diego Technology Employment by Sector
30,000
Pharma/biotech/
medical
Communications
Equipment Mfg
Software
25,000
Biotechnology,
Pharmaceutical
Defense and
Transportation
Computer,
Electronics
Environmental
Technology
Other Technical
Consulting Srvs
Biomedical
Products
Recreational
Goods
20,000
15,000
10,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2Qe
1Qe
4Q
3Q
2Q
1Q
4Q
3Q
2Q
1Q
4Q
3Q
2Q
1Q
4Q
3Q
2Q
1Q
4Q
3Q
2Q
0
1Q
5,000
2013
Source: National University System Institute for Policy Research, based upon California Employment
Development Department, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).
Health Care & Social Assistance
130,000
125,000
120,000
115,000
110,000
105,000
100,000
95,000
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
90,000
Leisure and Hospitality
120,000
100,000
80,000
Food Service, Drinking
Accommodations
Amusements
Air Transportation
60,000
40,000
20,000
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate
85,000
83,000
81,000
79,000
77,000
75,000
73,000
71,000
69,000
67,000
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
65,000
Construction Employment
95,000
90,000
85,000
80,000
75,000
70,000
65,000
60,000
55,000
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
50,000
San Diego Businesses/Employers
by Number of Employees
Businesses/Employers
Small <50
95%
Mid 50-249
3.9%
Large 250+
0.6%
Mid 50-249
29%
Large 250+
33%
Year Total
2008 98,941
2009 95,908
2010 97,489
2011 100,211
2012 99,658
Number
08/09 -3,033
09/10
1,581
10/11
2,722
11/12
-553
Percent of Total
Mid
Small 50- Large
<50
249 250+ Total
94,322 4,046
573 100%
91,652 3,731
525 100%
93,240 3,712
537 100%
95,818 3,842
551 100%
95,173 3,917
568 100%
Change:
Percent
-2,670 -315
-48 -3.1%
1,588
-19
12
1.6%
2,578
130
14
2.8%
-645
75
17 -0.6%
Employees
Employees
Small <50
38%
Businesses
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
Small
Total
<50
1,317,094 494,288
1,229,065 461,544
1,237,369 468,503
1,251,868 473,763
1,284,281 493,320
Number Change:
-88,029 -32,744
8,304
6,959
14,499
5,260
32,413 19,557
Mid 50249
392,228
360,340
360,295
368,979
373,888
Large
250+
430,578
407,181
408,571
409,126
417,073
-31,888
-45
8,684
4,909
-23,397
1,390
555
7,947
Source: California Employment Development Department
Mid
Small 50- Large
<50
249 250+
95% 4.1% 0.6%
96% 3.9% 0.5%
96% 3.8% 0.6%
96% 3.8% 0.5%
95% 3.9% 0.6%
Change:
-2.8% -7.8% 2.3%
1.7% -0.5% 2.6%
2.8% 3.5% 3.1%
-0.7% 2.0% 0.0%
Percent of Total
Mid
Small 50- Large
Total <50
249 250+
100%
38% 30% 33%
100%
38% 29% 33%
100%
38% 29% 33%
100%
38% 29% 33%
100%
38% 29% 32%
Percent Change:
-6.7% -6.6% -8.1% -5.4%
0.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.3%
1.2% 1.1% 2.4% 0.1%
2.6% 4.1% 1.3% 1.9%
Annual San Diego County Population Change
55,000
45,000
35,000
25,000
15,000
5,000
-5,000
-15,000
Net Domestic Migration
-25,000
Net Immigration
Natural Increase
-35,000
Total Change
Source: California Department of Finance; estimate and forecast by National University System Institute for
Policy Research.
2013e
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
-45,000
250,000
2000
200,000
2012
Population
San Diego
Population
by Age
150,000
100,000
50,000
Source: San Diego Association of Governments; National
University System Institute for Policy Research.
Age Range (Years)
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
Year
2000
2012 Change Percent
TOTAL 2,813,863 3,143,429 329,566 11.7%
0-14
611,119 602,245 -8,874
-1.5%
15-29 652,175 751,133 98,958 15.2%
30-44 679,350 641,634 -37,716
-5.6%
45-64 557,469 773,882 216,413 38.8%
65+
277,343 314,869 37,526 13.5%
Median
Age
33.2
34.8
1.6
4.8%
10-14
5-9
0-4
0
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Los Angeles CA
Washington DC
SAN DIEGO CA
New York NY
Boston MA
Miami FL
Portland OR
200.0
Seattle WA
San Francisco CA
Tampa FL
Denver CO
150.0
Chicago IL
Dallas TX
Minneapolis MN
Charlotte NC
100.0
Phoenix AZ
Cleveland OH
Las Vegas NV
50.0
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Atlanta GA
2000
Seasonally Adjusted Index: 2000=100.0
250.0
Detroit MI
Ratio of Median Selling Home Price
to
Median
Household
Income
8.0
Median Home Price / Median Income
7.0
SAN DIEGO
6.0
National
5.0
4.0
3.0
Source: National Association of Home Builders; National University System Institute for Policy Research.
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
2.0
Housing Opportunity Index – 2nd Qtr 2013
Least
Affordable
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Housing Median
Ratio
OpporHome
Median of Home
tunity
Sales
Family Price to
Metro Area
Index+
Price
Income Income
San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA*
19.3
$781,000 $101,200 7.72
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA*
28.3
407,000
61,900 6.58
Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA*
28.8
535,000
84,100 6.36
New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ*
29.8
435,000
66,000 6.59
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
30.0
509,000
73,800 6.90
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
32.2
640,000 101,300 6.32
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA
35.0
400,000
70,900 5.64
SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD-SAN MARCOS, CA
37.1
400,000
72,300 5.53
Salinas, CA
40.5
346,000
63,100 5.48
Napa, CA
40.9
430,000
80,600 5.33
Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
42.3
385,000
74,900 5.14
Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, CA
43.3
426,000
71,000 6.00
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
43.8
400,000
87,900 4.55
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
46.5
423,000
86,700 4.88
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA*
47.3
425,000
89,200 4.76
Laredo, TX
49.9
149,000
40,300 3.70
Honolulu, HI
51.6
430,000
86,300 4.98
Ocean City, NJ
53.8
320,000
76,600 4.18
Santa Fe, NM
54.2
277,000
62,000 4.47
Barnstable Town, MA
56.2
317,000
74,900 4.23
National
69.3
202,000
64,400 3.14
*Indicates Metropolitan Divisions, all others are Metropolitan Statistical Areas. California areas are in italics .
+Share of homes sold during the quarter affordable to median income.
Source: National Association of Home Builders; National University System Institute for Policy Research.
40,000
35,000
0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013e
San Diego Housing Construction
45,000
Multiple Units
Single Units
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Forecasting is a lot like trying to
drive a car while only being able
to see out the rear view mirror.
- Anonymous
www.nusinstitute.org
Our Mission
The Institute is a non-partisan organization
that formulates and promotes high quality
economic, policy, and public-opinion
research.
Thank you for coming!
Questions?
Dr. Ronald Uhlig
Dean, School of Business
and Management