Transcript Land Use Regression (LUR)

Combining Models and Observations of
Air Quality for Human Health Studies
Office of Research and Development
National Exposure Research Laboratory
CMAS Special Session on Human Health
October 13, 2010
Exposure Metrics Used in Health Studies
Hypothesis
• High spatio-temporal resolution
in air quality/exposure data will
better reveal the relationships
between ambient air quality and
health outcomes
Tiers of Exposure Metrics
Input data
Ambient Monitoring Data
Monitoring Data
Land-Use Regression
Modeling
Monitoring Data
Emissions Data
Land-Use/Topography
Air Quality Modeling
Emissions Data
Meteorological Data
Land-Use/Topography
(CMAQ, AERMOD, hybrid)
Statistical modeling
(Data blending)
Exposure Modeling
(SHEDS, APEX)
Monitoring Data
Emissions Data
Meteorological Data
Land-Use/Topography
Monitoring Data
Emissions Data
Meteorological Data
Land-Use/Topography
Personal Behavior/Time Activity
Microenvironmental Characteristics
Health data analysis
Epidemiological statistical models:
log(E(Ykt)) = α + β exposure metrickt + kγkakt+ …other covariates
Office of Research and Development
1 National Exposure Research Laboratory
Exposure Metrics Used in Health Studies
Hypothesis
• High spatio-temporal resolution
in air quality/exposure data will
better reveal the relationships
between ambient air quality and
health outcomes
Tiers of Exposure Metrics
Input data
Ambient Monitoring Data
Monitoring Data
Land-Use Regression
Modeling
Monitoring Data
Emissions Data
Land-Use/Topography
Air Quality Modeling
Emissions Data
Meteorological Data
Land-Use/Topography
(CMAQ, AERMOD, hybrid)
Statistical modeling
(Data blending)
Exposure Modeling
(SHEDS, APEX)
Monitoring Data
Emissions Data
Meteorological Data
Land-Use/Topography
Monitoring Data
Emissions Data
Meteorological Data
Land-Use/Topography
Personal Behavior/Time Activity
Microenvironmental Characteristics
Health data analysis
Epidemiological statistical models:
log(E(Ykt)) = α + β exposure metrickt + kγkakt+ …other covariates
Office of Research and Development
2 National Exposure Research Laboratory
Land Use Regression (LUR): One
Approach That Combines Observations
with a Model
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3 National Exposure Research Laboratory
Land Use Regression (LUR)
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4 National Exposure Research Laboratory
Land Use Regression (LUR)
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Source: Jerrett et al., JEAEE (2005).
Example of Land Use Regression (LUR)
Office of Research and Development
6 National Exposure Research Laboratory
Exposure Metrics Used in Health Studies
Hypothesis
• High spatio-temporal resolution
in air quality/exposure data will
better reveal the relationships
between ambient air quality and
health outcomes
Tiers of Exposure Metrics
Input data
Ambient Monitoring Data
Monitoring Data
Land-Use Regression
Modeling
Monitoring Data
Emissions Data
Land-Use/Topography
Air Quality Modeling
Emissions Data
Meteorological Data
Land-Use/Topography
(CMAQ, AERMOD, hybrid)
Statistical modeling
(Data blending)
Exposure Modeling
(SHEDS, APEX)
Monitoring Data
Emissions Data
Meteorological Data
Land-Use/Topography
Monitoring Data
Emissions Data
Meteorological Data
Land-Use/Topography
Personal Behavior/Time Activity
Microenvironmental Characteristics
Health data analysis
Epidemiological statistical models:
log(E(Ykt)) = α + β exposure metrickt + kγkakt+ …other covariates
Office of Research and Development
7 National Exposure Research Laboratory
Use of a Bias-Adjustment Method of
Combining Observations and Model
Results
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Source: Kang et al., GMD (2010).
Use of a Bayesian Technique to Combine
Observations and Model Results
(See also Fuentes, AQAH, 2009)
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Hierarchical Bayesian Model Approach
used in an EPA-CDC Collaboration
• NERL is developing AQ surfaces from AQS data and CMAQ results using HB
model1
– Daily PM2.5 and 8-hr Ozone
– 36km CONUS and 12km eastern half US
– 2001 to 2006 done; subsequent years underway
• CDC’s Tracking program is using HBM to develop AQ indicators
– Currently available on the Tracking Network
• http://ephtracking.cdc.gov/
– Made available to states and other CDC programs
• MATCH program / county health rankings
http://www.countyhealthrankings.org/
• CDC and its partners are also using HBM predictions for health associations
and impact assessments
1
McMillan, N., Holland, D. M., Morara, M., and Feng, J. (2010). Environmetrics 21, 48-65;
http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/fulltext/122546906/PDFSTART.
Courtesy of Ambarish Vaidyanathan (CDC) and Fred Dimmick (EPA)
Office of Research and Development
10 National Exposure Research Laboratory
Exposure Metrics Used in Health Studies
Hypothesis
• High spatio-temporal resolution
in air quality/exposure data will
better reveal the relationships
between ambient air quality and
health outcomes
Tiers of Exposure Metrics
Input data
Ambient Monitoring Data
Monitoring Data
Land-Use Regression
Modeling
Monitoring Data
Emissions Data
Land-Use/Topography
Air Quality Modeling
Emissions Data
Meteorological Data
Land-Use/Topography
(CMAQ, AERMOD, hybrid)
Statistical modeling
(Data blending)
Exposure Modeling
(SHEDS, APEX)
Monitoring Data
Emissions Data
Meteorological Data
Land-Use/Topography
Monitoring Data
Emissions Data
Meteorological Data
Land-Use/Topography
Personal Behavior/Time Activity
Microenvironmental Characteristics
Health data analysis
Epidemiological statistical models:
log(E(Ykt)) = α + β exposure metrickt + kγkakt+ …other covariates
Office of Research and Development
11 National Exposure Research Laboratory