Transcript ALARO-0 at ZAMG Experiences, verification, identified - RC-LACE

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ALARO-0 at ZAMG
Experiences, verification, identified problems, ….
Christoph Wittmann
Content

Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG

Experiences / verification / identified problems
 Precipitation
 Low Stratus
 Temperature

Planning with ALARO-X at ZAMG
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History
Short history:
 09/2007
 04/2009
 05/2009
 2010
 06/2010
 09/2010
 10/2010
 01/2011
 03/2011

ALARO-0 (minus 3MT) operational (9.6km)
full ALARO-0 operational (9.6km)
start of daily ALARO-0 4.8km run (00 UTC)
verification, tests, etc.
implementation of CANARI surface assimilation
ALARO-0 4.8km coupled to IFS
name for model version: “ALARO5-AUSTRIA”
ALARO5-AUSTRIA running 4 times / day
ALARO5-AUSTRIA announced as operational model at
ZAMG
09/2012 (?) NEC-SX8R switched off at ZAMG = end of 9.6km
ALARO-0 version
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Implementation of ALARO at ZAMG
Operational model at ZAMG:
“ALARO5-AUSTRIA”
resolution:
runs:
forecast range:
oro./grid:
time step:
initialization:
physics:
dynamics:
availability:
4.8km / 60L
00 / 06 / 12 / 18h
72h
mean / linear
180s
IFS (3D)
CANARI (2D)
ALARO-0, SK scheme
hydrostatic
4 hours after init time
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ALADIN-LAEF operational + upgrade settings
Ensemble size
Horizontal resolution
Vertical resolution
Runs/Day
Forecast range
Output-Frequency
16+1
18 km / 11 km
37 layer / 45 layer
2 (00, 12 UTC)
60 h / 72h
1h
Model time step
720s / 400s
Coupling-Model
(time-lagged)
ECMWF-EPS (SV
Vectors, first 16
members)
Coupling-Update
6h
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Multiphysics
New version brings
nice improvements
(esp. skill scores for
precip.)
ALARO physics
ALADIN-Fr physics
Targets on:
 Microphysics
 Convection (shallow + deep), Turbulence
 Cellular automaton approach included (2 members)
 Radiation (radiative cloud condensate)
 Screening level diagnostics (T2m, RH2m, 10m gusts)
 … never ending story (ideas+input needed …)
TOUCANS and other new developments are always welcome 
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Content

Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG

Experiences / verification / identified problems
 Precipitation
 Low Stratus
 Temperature

Planning with ALARO-X at ZAMG,…
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Precipitation
Experiences/Feedback
 triggering of convection over orography too early (nothing
new)
 overestimation of (severe) convective precipitation over
orography
 underestimation of (stratiform) precipitation over flatland
areas (e.g. northeastern part of Austria)
E-SUITE launched end of April (using retuned microphysics,
work by Radmila), should become operational within next
weeks: Nice improvements for 2 of the 3 mentioned points
…
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Winter case I
winter case: frontal zone
approaching alps
ALARO 6.5km
IFS
ALARO 4.8km
ALARO 9.6km
COSMO-EU
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Winter case II
winter case: frontal zone
approaching alps
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Summer case II
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Triggering of convection
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Triggering of convection (COSMO vs. ALARO)
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Severe convection I
reports from regional
centers in the south of
Austria:
overestimation of severe
convection
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Severe convection II
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Severe convection III
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Verification
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Low stratus
ALARO-1 Working days
07/04/2015
Experiences/Feedback:
 ALARO5-AUSTRIA with better performance than IFS,
COSMO(-EU) …. but just when using empirical
subinversion scheme (SK)
 In flatland areas performance is quite good
 stratus in “resolved” valleys and basins still not sufficiently
predicted
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Synoptikertreffen
07/04/2015
Beispiel Hochnebel I
IFS
ALARO10
ALARO5
MSG VIS
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Synoptikertreffen
07/04/2015
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Verification low stratus Vienna
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ALARO-1 Working days
07/04/2015
Temperatures
Experiences/feedback:
 Current PBL / SBL / surface representation with problems
create a mixed layer in winter time (cold daytime bias)
 general cold daytime bias during summer
 best performance during spring / autumn
 better performance during night
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Temperature
ALARO-1 Working days
07/04/2015
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2m temperature verification Vienna
during night
time series 00+27h AE/BIAS
ALARO
during day
time series 00+36h AE/BIAS
ALARO
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Content

Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG

Experiences / verification / identified problems





Precipitation
Low Stratus
Temperature
Gusts
Planning with ALARO-X at ZAMG, …
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Plans with ALARO at ZAMG
Current priority:
AROME-AUSTRIA (2.5 km) … plan: operational in 2013
Migration NEC -> SGI
Beside that:
Ready for tests with new ALARO-1 developments
Stratus (SK scheme vs. TOUCANS?)
Wind gusts
AROME 2.5km vs. ALARO 5 km
Continue work on multiphysics for LAEF
Continue work on stochastic physics for LAEF
Soon: AROME 1km , ALARO 1km ?
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Input for discussions
Most important topics to be handled (as seen from ZAMG):
 Triggering of convection
 Intensity of convective precipitation
 Missing (weak) stratiform events
 Stratus in valleys, basins
 Cold daytime bias
 Wind+Gusts (10m+100m)
… some of that already solved with ALARO-1?
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SGI ICE X
ALARO-1 Working days
07/04/2015
After almost 1 year of delay …
… a new HPC is
waiting at ZAMG for more
complex physics, higher
resolution, …
… ready for work in few month
(after migration work )
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