Transcript Disaster System - The Global Systems Science Blog

Side Events: Disaster Risk Reduction: Government to Governance
Professional Management
and Integrated
Governance
Peijun Shi , Ming Wang ,Jing'ai Wang ,
1,2,3
1,3
1.4
Qian Ye1,3 ,Saini Yang1,3, Yanli Lv1,3
1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University;
2.Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Beijing Normal University;
3.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University;
4. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University
Beijing Normal University ,Beijing, China
[email protected]
Contents
Complexity of Disaster System
Integrated Disaster Risk Governance
Contents
Complexity of Disaster System
Integrated Disaster Risk Governance
2005
U.S. Hurricane Katrina (1300 death)
2004
Indian Ocean earthquake tsunami (275,000 dead)
Japan's
earthquake and tsunami disaster
in 2011 (15,000 deaths)
Myanmar
typhoon disaster in 2008
(70,000 deaths)
Response to environmental risks caused global changes is the major issue facing the sustainable development.
Examples of major disasters related to climate (precipitation and temperature)
Mississippi River floods in the United States in 2011
Hurricane Katrina disaster in the United States in 2005
Drought disasters in south China in 2011
Snow and ice storms in south China in 2008
Disaster System (DS)
H
E
Ds
E
•
Environments (E)
•
Hazards (H)
•
Socio-economic system (S)
S
(P. Shi, 1991)
DS=E∩H∩S
6
multiple
hazards
complexity
disaster chain
disaster
compound
Socio-Ecological System and
Disaster System Complexity
Multi -hazards
Flood
Drought
Windstorm
Hail
Dust Storm
Typhoon
Low Temperature and Freeze
Snow
Earthquake
Landslide
Debris Flow

8
Disaster-chain
Japan 311 Earthquake and tsunami co-triggered nuclear crisis in
2011
Earthquake - Tsunami Disaster Chain of Japan in 2011
Land
contamination
Water
contamination
Declined
ocean
water
quality
Damage to
terrestrial system
Decrease of
marine bio
resources
Damage to
marine
aquaculture
Animal variation
Damage to regional &
global ocean ecological
system
Vegetation
contamination
Atmospheric
pollution
Damage to
road &
bridge
Damage to
reservoir &
dam
Structural damage
Nuclear substance leakage
Damage to
agricultural ecological
system
Collapse
Human
casualty
Impact on
human health
Housing
collapse
Explosion of
nuclear power
plant
Tsunami
Damage to
terrestrial system
Earthquake
Landside
Social panic
Damage to supply
chains system
Housing
collapse
Social
instability
Damage to coastal
embankment
Impact on power supply
Damage to social
service system
Damage to
production system
Damage to industrial
production system
Damage to lifeline
system
Impact on local economy and world economy
Source: Peijun Shi et al., 2011
China 5·12 Earthquake Disaster Chain of Wenchuan, in 2008
Earthquake Disaster Chain of Wenchuan, China in 2008
Heavy rain
Collapse
Landslide
Debris flow
Earthquake
Source: Peijun Shi et al.,
2009
Quake-lake
Hazards(Disasters) compound
8
最大连续冰冻日数（天）
7
The large-scale sleet&snow disaster in South of China
（2008）
冰冻日数
常年值
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
年
Multi-hazard, Disaster-chain, Hazards(Disasters)
compound and LSD
Multi-hazard, Disaster-chain, Hazards(Disasters) compound
are often used in various references of disaster studies, but
there is still different understanding about their essential
difference (Shi et al., 2010a).
Disaster-chain, Hazards(Disasters) compound triggered by a
severe or enormous disaster event are generally the reason for
the huge losses of LSD.
The existence of multi-hazards is not a necessary condition for
the formation of a LSD; only when the regional disaster
prevention capacity is extremely low will it be possible to trigger
a LSD.
Contents
Complexity of Disaster System
Integrated Disaster Risk Governance
The Nation-wide Paradigm of Integrated LSD Risk
Governance in China (Top-down)
Circular
Economy
Saving
Resources
Environment
Friendship
Sustainability
Green
Economy
risk
transfer
Consilience between Disaster Risk Reduction and Development
Year's Loss Ratio and Death population rate
Caused by Natural Disaster in China
10
10-6
7.00%
9
8
Annual Loss Ratio
7
Annual Death Rate
6
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
5
4
3.00%
3
2.00%
2
1.00%
1
0
0.00%
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Year
2004
2006
2008
2010
Annual economic loss to GDP ratio (expressed as percentage of GDP) and
annual death rate (number of deaths per million people) caused by
natural disasters in China, 1990-2011 (excluding the Wenchuan earthquake
event, 2008). Based on data from Fang et. al.
Disaster Risk Maps of CHINA
Covers of the three atlases of natural disaster risk in China.
Source: The People’s Insurance Company of China, 1992; Shi, 2003 and 2011.
Establishing and Improving the Disaster System （ D S）
Warning Information Integration Platform
Monitoring.
Warning and
Forecasting
System
Prepareness and
Manage System
DS Warning
Information
Integration
Platform
Material Storage
and Security
System
Forming
integrated DS governance paradigm
Governments
Institute
s
Community
Family
Place
Local
Regional
Global
mitigation
Coordination
Cooperation
Construction
adaptation
Integration
Communication
Government: Development and Disaster Reduction (Governance)
Community: Safety Construction (Legislation)
Institute: Risk Transformation (Mechanism)
Family: Risk Awareness (Education)
Consilience between Structure and Function Optimization
Consilience
Model
for
Integrated DS Governance
resilience
Consilience
a da pta tion
vulnera bility
Global Network of Large-Scale Disaster Impact
ai
Li
ch
ai
so
on
n
ti
ne
uc
tw
od
or
Pr
k
Politics
em
st
pp
sy
Su
ol
ns
Ec
ai
og
ch
ic
al
ly
Geography
Economy
ns
Society
Catastrophe
Improving mitigation to response ER
we propose to
establish “global
integrated
disaster risk
governance
paradigm” under
the development
strategy for
“living with
global climate
diversity .
Global Integrated Disaster Risk Governance
Paradigm under Development Strategy for Living
with Global Climate Diversity
Integrated
Disaster
Risk Governance of Climate
For this reason, humans must
establish corresponding defensive
measures based on the integrated
characteristics of CCR, improving
mitigation to response ER,
improving resilence to response
FR and improving adaptation to
response TR. Only by improving
mitigation, resilience and
adaptation of human beings
gradually to response climate
change and form cohesion of
integrated CCR governance, can we
promote sustainability
comprehensively from local,
regional to global under the
background of climate change.
Change
Key Points
A The nature of disaster system shows the characteristics of
deep complexity. The human society as a whole should fully address
the deep complexity and establish governance paradigms for better
and more effective disaster risk reduction. The parameters in a
disaster system usually experience the slow onset change, the rapid
sudden change or the fluctuation in between, and these changes can
often be observed as multiple hazards, disaster chain or disaster
compound
Key Points
B As a traditional fashion, based on the regional variation of
hazards, exposures and environments that form the essential of
a disaster system, government emphasizes the various
professional structure measures including safety construction,
disaster relief, emergency management and risk transfer, along
with professional functional measures such as preparedness,
emergency response, recovery and reconstruction. However, in
face of the deep complexity within the disaster system,
traditional measures face significant difficulty of balancing and
enhancing the efficiency and efficacy of resources used for
disaster risk reduction.
Key Points
This article proposes a strategy of integrated disaster risk
reduction (DRR) :
The unity of development and protection
The equalization of technological and institutional
innovation in DRR
The synergy between professional/industrial and
regional DRR implementation
The integration of DRR structures and functions
The systemization of all-level DRR from (inter)national
plans to community actions
总结（史培军）
科学研究
国家需求
Thank you!
诊断全球变化对环境风险的影
响机理与途径（如何影响？）
解决渐发-突发综合环境风险
评估中量化、模拟与预估的
服务于我国针对全球变化
与环境风险的关系、制
定科学有序的应对环境
变化政策
谢谢
问题（影响多少？）；
服务于我国提高环境变化
揭示中国环境风险在全球环境
总体的预估水平和能力
风险水平中的位置，构建应
服务于解决我国以制度设
对范式（责任多大？）
计为核心的综合环境风
险防御的范式问题
科学问题关键、国家需求紧迫、国际竞争激烈，且我国已有较好研究基础！