Transcript Glenn`s Powerpoint Presentation on the Analysis

Stochastic Analysis of Three
VH-MDX Crash Scenarios
Glenn Horrocks
John Tonitto
BWRS
Scenarios
• Tower Logs
• Witness Report: Blenman
• Witness Report: 4wd party
Stochastic Analysis
Scenario 1: Tower Logs
Nominal
STD
Source
Tower bearing at 19:36:00
320°
2°
Log transcript
Tower range at 19:36:00
48NM
0.5NM
Log transcript
Aircraft Heading
140°
10°
Log transcript
Aircraft air speed at 19:36:00
145 knots
10 knots
John Watson’s Cessna 210
operating envelope assessment
Aircraft air speed at stall
85 knots
10 knots
John Watson’s Cessna 210
operating envelope assessment
Time of crash
19:39:27
35 seconds
John Watson’s analysis
Wind speed at 8000’
43 knots
10 knots
John Watson’s analysis
Wind speed at 6000’
33 knots
10 knots
John Watson’s analysis
Wind direction
230°
10°
John Watson’s analysis
Bank rate at 19:36:00
0°/s
0.1°/s
GH and JT experience
Bank rate acceleration
0°/s2
0.02°/s2
GH and JT experience
Careys Peak Track
Allyn River
Mt Lumeah
Burraga Swamp
Paterson River
Scenario 2: Blenman
Nominal
STD
5540 4910
0
Eyewitness account – JT
19:38:30
0
Eyewitness account – JT
Aircraft distance from
Blenman
7km
0.5NM
Eyewitness account – JT
Aircraft bearing from
Blenman
240°
2°
Eyewitness account – JT
Aircraft Heading
45°
30°
Eyewitness account – JT
Aircraft air speed at 19:36:00
145 knots
10 knots
John Watson’s Cessna 210
operating envelope assessment
Aircraft air speed at stall
85 knots
10 knots
John Watson’s Cessna 210
operating envelope assessment
Time of crash
19:39:27
35 seconds
John Watson’s analysis
Wind speed at 8000’
43 knots
10 knots
John Watson’s analysis
Wind speed at 6000’
33 knots
10 knots
John Watson’s analysis
Wind direction
230°
10°
John Watson’s analysis
Bank rate at 19:36:00
0°/s
0.1°/s
GH and JT experience
Bank rate acceleration
0°/s2
0.02°/s2
GH and JT experience
Blenman’s Location
Time of Blenman’s sighting
Source
Mt Lumeah
Burraga Swamp
Paterson River
Allyn River
Scenario 3: 4wd
Nominal
STD
4540 4010
0.5NM
Eyewitness account – JT
45°
30°
Eyewitness account – JT
Aircraft air speed at 19:36:00
145 knots
10 knots
John Watson’s Cessna 210
operating envelope assessment
Aircraft air speed at stall
85 knots
10 knots
John Watson’s Cessna 210
operating envelope assessment
Time of crash
19:39:27
35 seconds
John Watson’s analysis
Wind speed at 8000’
43 knots
10 knots
John Watson’s analysis
Wind speed at 6000’
33 knots
10 knots
John Watson’s analysis
Wind direction
230°
10°
John Watson’s analysis
Bank rate at 19:36:00
0°/s
0.1°/s
GH and JT experience
Bank rate acceleration
0°/s2
0.02°/s2
GH and JT experience
Location at 19:31:10
Aircraft Heading
Source
Rawdon Vale
(25km W of Gloucester)
Careys Peak Track
Burraga Swamp
Williams River
Paterson River
Allyn River
Careys Peak Track
Mt Lumeah
Burraga Swamp
Allyn River
Paterson River