Transcript 06_Inference-issues-in-OLS

Inference issues in OLS
Amine Ouazad
Ass. Prof. of Economics
Outline
1. Heteroscedasticity
2. Clustering
3. Generalized Least Squares
1. For heteroscedasticity
2. For autocorrelation
HETEROSCEDASTICITY
Issue
• The issue arises whenever the residual’s
variance depends on the observation, or
depends on the value of the covariates.
10
Example #1
SS
df
MS
Model
Residual
9202.81992
968.636231
1
998
9202.81992
.970577386
Total
10171.4561
999
10.1816378
Number of obs
F( 1,
998)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
=
1000
= 9481.80
= 0.0000
= 0.9048
= 0.9047
= .98518
y
Coef.
x
_cons
3.057914
1.023541
-10
-5
0
y
5
Source
-4
-2
0
x
2
4
. regress y x, robust
Linear regression
Number of obs
F( 1,
998)
Prob > F
R-squared
Root MSE
y
Coef.
x
_cons
3.057914
1.023541
Robust
Std. Err.
.051667
.0311581
t
59.19
32.85
=
1000
= 3502.87
= 0.0000
= 0.9048
= .98518
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
0.000
0.000
2.956525
.9623982
3.159302
1.084684
Std. Err.
.0314036
.0311542
t
97.37
32.85
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
0.000
0.000
2.996289
.9624057
3.119538
1.084676
Example #2
. regress y1 x
SS
df
MS
Model
Residual
74981.0212
13409.9859
1
640
74981.0212
20.9531029
Total
88391.0071
641
137.895487
Number of obs
F( 1,
640)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
=
642
= 3578.52
= 0.0000
= 0.8483
= 0.8481
= 4.5775
20
y1
40
60
80
Source
y1
Coef.
x
_cons
16.07456
9.339686
Std. Err.
.2687123
.2382014
t
59.82
39.21
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
0.000
0.000
15.54689
8.871936
16.60222
9.807437
. regress y1 x, robust
Number of obs
F( 1,
640)
Prob > F
R-squared
Root MSE
0
Linear regression
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
x
y1
Coef.
x
_cons
16.07456
9.339686
Robust
Std. Err.
.4701565
.2079953
t
34.19
44.90
=
642
= 1168.94
= 0.0000
= 0.8483
= 4.5775
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
0.000
0.000
15.15132
8.931251
Here Var(y|x) is clearly increasing in x.
Notice the underestimation of the size of the confidence intervals.
16.99779
9.748122
Visual checks with multiple variables
• Use the vector of estimates b, and predict E(Y|X) using the
predict xb, xb stata command.
• Draw the scatter plot of the dependent y and the prediction
Xb on the horizontal axis.
100
. regress y3 x z
SS
df
MS
Model
Residual
61926.4748
8288.16585
2
639
30963.2374
12.9705256
Total
70214.6407
641
109.539221
Number of obs
F( 2,
639)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
=
642
= 2387.20
= 0.0000
= 0.8820
= 0.8816
= 3.6015
0
y3
50
Source
y3
Coef.
x
z
_cons
1.835086
3.015666
1.104964
-50
. predict xb, xb
-20
0
20
Linear prediction
40
. scatter y3 xb
Std. Err.
.2183514
.0468961
.1878993
t
8.40
64.31
5.88
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
0.000
0.000
0.000
1.406313
2.923577
.7359896
2.263859
3.107755
1.473939
Causes
• Unobservable that affects the variance of the
residuals, but not the mean conditional on x.
– y=a+bx+e.
– with e=hz. The shock h satisfies E(h |x)=0, and
E(z|x)=0 but the variance Var(z|x) depends on an
unobservable z.
– E(e|x)=0 (exogeneity), but Var(e|x)=Var(hz|x)
depends on x. (previous example #1).
• In practice, most regressions have
heteroskedastic residuals.
Examples
• Variability of stock returns depends on the
industry.
– Stock Returni,t = a + b Market Returnt + ei,t.
• Variability of unemployment depends on the
state/country.
– Unemploymenti,t = a + b GDP Growtht + ei,t.
• Notice that both the inclusion of
industry/state dummies and controlling for
heteroskedasticity may be necessary.
Heteroscedasticity: the framework
𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝜀𝑖 𝑥𝑖 = 𝜎𝑖 2
• We set the ws so that their sum is equal to n, and they are all
positive. The trace of the matrix W (see matrix appendix) is
therefore equal to n.
Consequences
1. The OLS estimator is still unbiased, consistent
and asymptotically normal (only depends on
A1-A3).
2. But the OLS estimator is then inefficient (the
proof of the Gauss-Markov theorem relies on
homoscedasticity).
3. And the confidence intervals calculated
assuming homoscedasticity typically
overestimate the power of the
estimates/underestimate the size of the
confidence intervals.
Variance-covariance matrix
of the estimator
• Asymptotically
• At finite and fixed sample size
• xi is the i-th vector of covariates, a vector of size K.
• Notice that if the wi are all equal to 1, we are back to the
homoscedastic case and we get Var(b|x) = s2(X’X)-1
• We use the finite sample size formula to design an estimator
of the variance-covariance matrix.
White Heteroscedasticity consistent estimator of
the variance-covariance matrix
• The formula uses the estimated residuals ei of each
observation, using the OLS estimator of the coefficients.
• This formula is consistent (plim Est. Asy. Var(b)=Var(b)), but
may yield excessively large standard errors for small sample
sizes.
• This is the formula used by the Stata robust option.
• From this, the square of the k-th diagonal element is the
standard error of the k-th coefficient.
Test for heteroscedasticity
• Null hypothesis H0: si2 = s2 for all i=1,2,…,n.
• Alternative hypothesis Ha: at least one residual
has a different variance.
• Steps:
1. Estimate the OLS and predict the residuals ei.
2. Regress the square of the residuals on a
constant, the covariates, their squares and their
cross products (P covariates).
3. Under the null, all of the coefficients should be
equal to 0, and NR2 of the regression is
distributed as a c2 with P-1 degrees of freedom.
Suggests another visual check
0
10
residsq
20
30
• Examples #1 and #2 with one covariate.
• Example with two covariates.
-2
-1
0
1
2
0
0
500
500
resid3sq
resid3sq
1000
1000
1500
1500
x
-10
-5
0
5
z
10
-20
0
20
Linear prediction
40
3
Stata take aways
• Always use robust standard errors
– robust option available for most regressions.
– This is regardless of the use of covariates. Adding
a covariate does not free you from the burden of
heteroscedasticity.
• Test for heteroscedasticity:
– hettest reports the chi-squared statistic with P-1
degrees of freedom, and the p-value.
– A p-value lower than 0.05 rejects the null at 95%.
– The test may be used with small sample sizes, to
avoid the use of robust standard errors.
CLUSTERING
Clustering, example #1
• Typical problem with clustering is the
existence of a common unobservable
component…
– Common to all observations in a country, a state, a
year, etc.
• Take yit = xit + eit, a panel dataset where the
residual eit=ui+hit.
• Exercise: Calculate the variance-covariance
matrix of the residuals.
Clustering, example #2
• Other occurrence of clustering is the use of data
at a higher level of aggregation than the
individual observation.
– Example: yij = xijb+zjg+eij.
– This practically implies (but not theoretically), that
Cov(eij,ei’j) is nonzero.
• Example:
– regression performanceit = c + d policyj(i) + eit.
– regression stock returnit = constant + b Markett + eit.
Moulton paper
The clustering model
• Notice that the variance-covariance matrix can
be designed this way by blocks.
• In this model, the estimator is unbiased and
consistent, but inefficient and the estimated
variance-covariance matrix is biased.
True variance-covariance matrix
• With all the covariates fixed within group, the variance
covariance matrix of the estimator is:
• where m=n/p, the number of observations per group.
• This formula is not exact when there are individual-specific
covariates, but the term (1+(m-1)r) can be used as an
approximate correction factor.
Descriptive Statistics
Stata
• regress y x, cluster(unit) robust.
– Clustering and robust s.e. s should be used at the
same time.
– This is the OLS estimator with corrected standard
errors.
– If x includes unit-specific variables, we cannot add
a unit (state/firm/industry) dummy as well.
Multi-way clustering
•
Multi-way clustering:
– “Robust inference with multi-way clustering”, Cameron, Gelbach and
Miller, Technical NBER Working Paper Number 327 (2006).
• Has become the new norm very recently.
• Example: clustering by year and state.
– yit = xitb + zig + wtd + eit
– What do you expect?
• ivreg2 , cluster(id year) .
• ssc install ivreg2.
GENERALIZED LEAST SQUARES
OLS is BLUE only under A4
• OLS is not BLUE if the variance-covariance
matrix of the residuals is not diagonal.
• What should we do?
• Take general OLS model Y=Xb+e.
• And assume that Var(e)=W.
• Then take the square root of the matrix,
W-1/2. This is a matrix that satisfies
W=(W-1/2 )’W-1/2. This matrix exists for any
positive definite matrix.
Sphericized model
• The sphericized model is:
W-1/2 Y= W-1/2 Xb+ W-1/2e
• This model satisfies A4 since Var(e|X)=s2.
Generalized Least Squares
• The GLS estimator is:
• This estimator is BLUE. It is the efficient estimator
of the parameter beta.
• This estimator is also consistent and
asymptotically normal.
• Exercise: prove that the estimator is unbiased,
and that the estimator is consistent.
Feasible Generalized Least Squares
• The matrix W in general is unknown. We
estimate W using a procedure (see later) so
that plim W = W.
• Then the FGLS estimator b=(X’W-1X)-1X’W-1Y is
a consistent estimator of b.
• The typical problem is the estimation of W.
There is no one size fits all estimation
procedure.
GLS for heteroscedastic models
• Taking the formula of the GLS estimator, with a diagonal variancecovariance matrix.
• Where each weight is the inverse of wi. Or the inverse of si2. Scaling the
weights has no impact.
• Stata application exercise:
– Calculate weights and tse the weighted OLS estimator regress y x [aweight=w] to
calculate the heteroscedastic GLS estimator, on a dataset of your choice.
GLS for autocorrelation
• Autocorrelation is pervasive in finance.
Assume that et=ret-1+ht, (we say that et is AR(1)) where ht is the
innovation, uncorrelated with et-1.
• The problem is the estimation of r. Then a natural estimator of r is
the coefficient of the regression of et on et-1.
• Exercise 1 (for adv. students): find the inverse of W.
• Exercise 2 (for adv. students): find W for an AR(2) process.
• Exercise 3 (for adv. students): what about MA(2) ?
• Variation: Panel specific AR(1) structure.
1500
Autocorrelation example
. webuse invest2
. regress invest stock market
df
MS
5532554.18
1570883.64
2
97
2766277.09
16194.6767
Total
7103437.82
99
71751.8972
=
=
=
=
=
=
100
170.81
0.0000
0.7789
0.7743
127.26
500
Model
Residual
Number of obs
F( 2,
97)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
1000
SS
invest
Source
Coef.
stock
market
_cons
.3053655
.1050854
-48.02974
Std. Err.
.0435078
.0113778
21.48016
t
7.02
9.24
-2.24
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
0.028
[95% Conf. Interval]
.2190146
.0825036
-90.66192
.3917165
.1276673
-5.397555
0
invest
0
500
1000
1500
Linear prediction
company (strongly balanced)
time, 1 to 20
1 unit
400
SS
df
MS
1212772.8
338031.953
1
93
1212772.8
3634.75219
Total
1550804.76
94
16497.9229
=
=
=
=
=
=
95
333.66
0.0000
0.7820
0.7797
60.289
resid
Coef.
Std. Err.
resid
L1.
.9366451
.051277
_cons
-1.86626
6.185532
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
18.27
0.000
.8348191
1.038471
-0.30
0.764
-14.1495
10.41698
-400
-200
Model
Residual
Number of obs
F( 1,
93)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
Residuals
Source
200
. regress resid l.resid
0
. xtset company time
panel variable:
time variable:
delta:
-400
-200
0
Residuals, L
200
400
GLS for clustered models
• Correlation r within each group.
• Exercise: write down the variance-covariance
matrix W of the residuals.
• Put forward an estimator of r.
• What is the GLS estimator of b in Y=Xb+e with
clustering?
• Estimation using xtgls, re.
Applications of GLS
• The Generalized Least Squares model is seldom
used. In practice, the variance of the OLS
estimator is corrected for heteroscedasticity or
clustering.
–
–
–
–
Take-away: use regress , cluster(.) robust
Otherwise: xtgls, panels(hetero)
xtgls, panels(correlated)
xtgls, panels(hetero) corr(ar1)
• The GLS is mostly used for the estimation of
random effects models.
– xtreg, re
CONCLUSION: NO WORRIES
Take away for this session
1. Use regress, robust; always, unless the sample size is
small.
2. Use regress, robust cluster(unit) if:
– You believe there are common shocks at the unit level.
– You have included unit level covariates.
3. Use ivreg2, cluster(unit1 unit2) for two way clustering.
4. Use xtgls for the efficient FGLS estimator with
correlated, AR(1) or heteroscedastic residuals.
– This might allow you to shrink the confidence intervals
further, but beware that this is less standard than the
previous methods.