Transcript GOTV UNIVERSES - New Organizing Institute
GOTV UNIVERSES
Pilar Weiss New Organizing Institute
INTRODUCTIONS
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FOLLOWING THE LAW
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FOLLOWING THE LAW
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TODAY’S PRESENTER Pilar Weiss Civic Engagement Director New Organizing Institute
OBJECTIVE Today’s presentation will cover building Get Out the Vote (GOTV) universes, building capacity, and planning backwards to build up to scale.
AGENDA Introduction Basic Terms Building Universes Capacity, Capacity, Capacity… Instituting a Timeline Making Adjustments Q&A
SOME BASIC TERMS • GOTV Get Out The Vote refers to activities organizations and campaigns take in the run up to an election to maximize the number of supporters that turn out to vote.
• Universe The set of voters you will attempt to turn out to vote on election day.
• Modeling Scores – A prediction (based on voter file, polling, and commercial data) as to how a voter will behave.
BUILDING UNIVERSES
SETTING YOUR VOTE GOAL • Different vote goals for different kinds of campaigns – Candidates – 50% + 1 – Ballot Initiatives – different states/localities, different laws – Campaigns • Specific geography • Increasing turnout in a specific community or demographic
SETTING A NON-CANDIDATE VOTE GOAL • Building power in your community comes in lots of different forms! Define your win: – Increasing turnout of a specific demographic – Taking responsibility for a specific region, neighborhood, set of precincts • Increasing civic engagement in a community doesn’t have to be 50% + 1 but it should still be based on metrics!
• What is the vote deficit you’re going to fill?
BUILDING YOUR UNIVERSE MODELING PARTISANSHIP DEMOGRAPHICS ID/SUPPORT
VOTE HISTORY
TARGETING MATRIX AGAINST SUPPORT UNKNOWN SUPPORTER FREQUENT SPORADIC NEVER NEW Opponents who always vote Opponents who sometimes vote Opponents who never vote Newly registered opponents Persuadables who always vote Persuadables who sometimes vote Persuadables who never vote Newly registered persuadables Supporters who always vote Supporters who sometimes vote Supporters who never vote Newly registered supporters
HOW DO WE GET TO OUR VOTE GOAL?
• Identify our vote deficit • Identify how we’re going to contact voters • When do we transition from an ID/persuasion phase to GOTV phase?
• How many GOTV passes will we make to get to our vote goal?
CONTACT RATES • Having a baseline for contact rates – Phones – 10-20% – Canvass – 25-35% • Test contact rates – they’ll differ by geography, time of day, list quality.
CONTACT CALCULUS 9,000
Contact Goal
15%
Contact Rate
50,000
Attempts Goal
BUILDING CAPACITY
CAPACITY BUILDING BLOCKS • Organizational Capacity – Staff – Volunteers – Growth Potential • Key Metrics – Canvass Method - Phones or Canvassing – Contact Rate Assumptions – Shift Length & Estimated Production
VOLUNTEER CALCULUS 50,000
Attempts Goal
80
Calls per Shift
625
Shifts Goal
BUILDING A TIMELINE • Phases – Transition from persuasion to GOTV – Establishing # of GOTV passes – Calculating a timeline for each phase based on contact rate & capacity • Recognizing the role of Early Vote and Vote-By-Mail.
• Calculating ramp up & escalation in each phase, including key benchmarks.
TIMELINE Final ID/Target Universe Additional GOTV Passes Initial GOTV Pass Early Vote/ VBM Election Day
MAKING ADJUSTMENTS
It happens on every campaign so embrace the adjustment phase!
• Recognizing fluctuations in contact rate • Assess reality of shift length and shift production • Volunteer and staff capacity growth and schedule
QUESTIONS?
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