dpselectricityforecasting.ppt
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DPS Electricity Forecasting
Historic Practices and Status of
Current Plans
Sept. 13, 2005
Informational Workshop Docket 7081
J. Riley Allen
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Topics
DPS forecasting approach and methods
DSP plans for updating its forecasts
Open issues
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Overview of Current Practices
The Department’s electricity forecast is a
forecast built up from 3 independent efforts
All Fuel Prices forecast/Avoided costs – Currently
being finalized ICF (biennial)/Currently under
development in connection with update of avoided
costs.
Economic Forecast – Regional Economic Modeling,
Inc., (equilibrium model)
Energy System Dynamics – Platform is being migrated
from existing Promula base to VENSIM (interim use
of econometric model)
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Structural Model (Energy)
System Dynamics (historically E2020) – Allows
simulation of the world as it works with feedback
loops.
Policy Simulation -- What ifs and structural changes
Flexibility -- Flexibility to exchange key inputs with
other models (REMI, Fuel prices)
Consistency – Allows consistency with other forecasts
of BEA, Vermont, and EIA (or other fuel price
forecasts)
Bottom up -- Ability to develop forecasts that have
both top-down and bottom-up consistency.
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Structural Model (Economy)
Economic (equilibrium model, REMI)
Regional economic model (can be national,
regional, state or local)
Relied on by state to generate forecast of the
economy for budget projections;
Impact analysis (what if’s and impacts of
structural changes on fuel forecasts and
feedbacks)
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Why structural models?
Flexibility and Policy Simulation
Building Standards;
Appliance Standards;
Efficiency Utility Programs;
Cogeneration.
Uncertainty analysis (flexible tool for what if’s and
scenario analysis)
Forecasting Accuracy (???)
The tool allows one to capture significant influences that did not
exist or were not significant in historical data.
Depends on commitment to detail and maintenance.
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DPS Schedule
All Fuel Price forecast/Avoided Costs (ICF
analysis)
Finalized in September 2005
Economic Analyst/Forecasting (Sept ’05)
Economic Projections (January/February 2006)
Statewide electricity forecast incorporating
economic forecast (January/February ’06)
System dynamics forecast (Aug/Sept ’06)
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Open Issues
Local versus statewide -- Current DPS forecast is typically Statewide
(Local forecasting)
Harmonization/Reconciliation -- Relationship between DPS forecast
and VELCO/ISO-NE forecast and individual utility forecasts;
DPS Role as Advocate and Planner -- DPS as advocate in Board
proceedings. Forecast is sometimes used by Vt. utilities in Board
proceedings.
Information Sharing -- What information can be used or shared
between the DPS and the utilities and EVT to improve forecasting
and ability to identify impacts of DR?
Uncertainty Analysis -- Role of uncertainty analysis/alternative load
scenarios
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Conclusion
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