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WeatherDiscussion0512
Major Weather Related Threat
Seattle Pollen 05/12/14
Temps Have Been Warm
And Dry
500 hPa Anomaly
Obligatory ENSO Discussion
Niño Region SST Departures
(oC) Recent Evolution
The latest weekly SST
departures are:
Niño
Niño
Niño
Niño
4
3.4
3
1+2
0.8ºC
0.5ºC
0.6ºC
1.2ºC
Weekly Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m)
Average Temperature Anomalies
Subsurface temperature anomalies increased during June, August, and in October
2013. Toward the end of January 2014, temperature anomalies strongly increased.
Recently, the positive anomalies have decreased, but remain elevated.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific
Recently, positive subsurface anomalies are widespread
across most of the Pacific basin, but have weakened in
recent weeks.
Most recent pentad analysis
During March-April, the downwelling phase of a
strong oceanic Kelvin wave resulted in an
eastward shift of above-average temperatures
(right hand panels).
The recent weakening of the positive
temperature departures represents the effects of
the upwelling phase of the Kelvin wave.
Predictability
CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook
Updated: 8 May 2014
The chances of El Niño increase during the remainder of 2014, exceeding
65% by summer (JJA).
February Forecast Was Less Confident
IRI/CPC Pacific Niño
3.4 SST Model Outlook
Most models predict ENSO-neutral
(-0.5ºC to +0.5ºC) to continue
through the Northern Hemisphere
spring (AMJ). After that, models
predict either ENSO-neutral or El
Niño (greater or equal to +0.5ºC)
during the rest of 2014.
Figure provided by the International Research
Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society
(updated 16 April 2014).
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast (PDF corrected)
Issued: 12 May 2014
The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts El Niño starting
within the next 1-3 months.
What Happened to the CA
Drought?
Paradise
Bicycle Lake
1430 UTC May 11
https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=PZ5yPrhLmi4