Transcript TGLOTCOON.ppt

Division of Nearshore Research
Texas Coastal Ocean
Observation Network
Dr. Gary Jeffress
Mr. James Rizzo
October 2003
Division of Nearshore Research
Projects
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Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network
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NOAA/NOS Natl Water Level Obs Network
Houston/Galveston PORTS
National/Global Ocean Observing System
TWDB Intensive Surveys
Nueces Bay Salinity Project
Corpus Christi Real-Time Navigation System
CMP - Neural-Network Forecasting
CMP - Waves
TCOON Overview
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Started 1988
Over 50 stations
Primary Sponsors
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General Land Office
Water Devel. Board
US Corps of Eng
Nat'l Ocean Service
Gulf of
Mexico
TCOON Overview
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Measurements
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Precise water levels
Wind
Temperature
Barometric pressure
Follows NOAA/NOS
standards
Real-time, online
database
Typical TCOON Station
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Wind anemometer
Radio antenna
Satellite transmitter
Solar panels
Data collector
Water level sensor
Water quality sensor
Current meter
Nueces Bay Salinity Project
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Started 1991
Informs data management officials of
opportunities to avoid water releases
Water quality data collected every 30 minutes
Other Real-time Systems
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Real-time navigation
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Port of Corpus Christi
Port Freeport
NOAA PORTS
Offshore weather
Data Collection Paths
Uses of DNR/TCOON Data
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Tidal datums
Littoral boundaries
Oil-spill response
Navigation
Storm preparation/
response
Water quality
studies
Research
Tidal Datums
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Used for
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Coastal property boundaries
Nautical charts
Bridge and engineering structures
Tidal Datum Schematic
Research
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Real-time automated data processing
Tidal datum processing
Web-based visualization and manipulation of
coastal data
Neural network based forecasts from realtime observations
Specialized sensor and data acquisition
system development
Support for other research efforts
Water Level Forecasting
Isidore begins to (re-)enter the Gulf…
…what will happen next?
Tide Predictions
Tide
The periodic rise and fall of a body of water
resulting from gravitational interactions
between Sun, Moon, and Earth.
Tide and Current Glossary, National Ocean Service, 2000
According to NOS, changes in water level
from non-gravitational forces are not “tides”.
Prediction vs. Observation
It’s nice when it works…
Prediction vs. Observation
…but it often doesn’t work in Texas
Water Level != Tide
In Texas, meteorological factors have a
significant effect on water elevations.
Uses of Harmonic Predictions
However, harmonic predictions can still be
useful! Consider…
Isidore begins to (re-)enter the Gulf…
…what will happen next?
Uses of Harmonic Predictions
If we add harmonic prediction…
…what will happen next?
Uses of Harmonic Predictions
landfall
Harmonic Water Level Predictions
Present Capabilities
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Automated system for
computing harmonic
constituent values
from observations
database
Harmonic predictions
available via query
page for many TCOON
stations
Water Level Prediction
(Near) Future Capabilities
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Persistent model forecast
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Apply difference between latest observation and
harmonic prediction to future predictions
Forecasts page on DNR web site
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Obtain forecasts from different models
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Harmonic predictions
Persistent model
Neural-network model
Linear-regression/statistical model
Hybrid models
Information about water-level forecasting methods
Statistics on previous forecasts
Neural Network Forecasting
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Use neural network to model non-tidal
component of water level
Reliable short-term predictions
CCNAS ANN 24-hour Forecasts for 1997 (ANN trained over 2001 Data Set)
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Water Levels (m)
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Julian Day,1997
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Forecasts in Storm Events
CCNAS ANN 12-hour Forecasts During 1998 Tropical Storm Frances
(ANN trained over 2001 Data Set)
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Water Levels (m)
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Julian Day,1998
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Harmonic Analysis
NN Model, 24 Hr prediction
Conclusions
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Long-term, data-rich observation
network
Web-based infrastructure for automated
collection and processing of marine data
Research in datum computation and
coastal forecasting