Transcript Document 7190644

GEOPOLITICS AND
THE FLAT WORLD
Technological Determinism
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Technology can facilitate globalization
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Internet
Cell phones with cameras
Capabilities create intention
Technology CAN help flatten the world,
but it is not a must
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Everyone in the world use technology ?
Technological Determinism
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Benefits of using technology
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Able to communicate, compete, and
collaborate farther and faster
More and more people will find more
and more ways to use them
BUT no guarantee all people use it to
create and grow their living standard
So no idea how flat the world will be
Flattening Process
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World has been continuously flattening
in a fast rate
Half of the world participates and
benefits from the flattening process
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In both direct and indirect aspects
Believed to be the most important trend
nowadays
Flattening Process
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Lots of people are left behind in the
flattening process like
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War
Economic disruption
Politics
Problems and forces that prohibit the
process?
How to overcome?
Middle Class
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Jerry Yang quoted a saying
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Middle class believes
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Where people have hope, you have a middle class
A pathway out of poverty or lower-income status
Looking for a higher standard of living and a
better future for their kids
No hope, no chance to make into middle class
NO HOPE TO ENTER FLAT WORLD
Why no hope?
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Two reasons for no hope
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Too sick
Local governments are too broken
Too Sick
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Case 1: In an Indian village
Everyday this group of people are suffered
from
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Bribe is the only way to have better life
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Diseases, such as AIDS or TB
Instable electrical and water supply
BUT no money to do so
Fulfill their destiny, and live in this way
Rural areas have no chance to develop, e.g.
India, China, Africa and Latin America
Local Governments are broken
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Bribe to get electricity, water
Bribe the tax assessor to assess your
home correctly
Poor people feel gloom and darkness
Do not trust the governments that can
provide them a pathway
Too Disempowered
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Half-flat – occasionally benefit from the
flat world but who are not really living
inside it themselves
Hope that globalization process become
slower
Improvement of Flattening
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Not by IMF, but local government
Proper actions
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Invest in rural infrastructure
Invest in education
Root out mismanagement and corruption
Anti-globalization Movement
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Originally it aims to help the poor people
Lost touch of with the true aspirations of the world’s poor
Five disparate forces
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Upper-middle-class American
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Old Left-socialists
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Foreseeing the trend of flattening world, so it gives support to antiglobalization
Anti-Americanism
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Claims to promote socialism to help poor, but actual purpose is not
More amorphous group
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For wealth and power
It’s the main purpose, but not helping the poors
Environmentalists
Who alleviates poverty?
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NGO
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NGOs in India right for better local
governance
Use of internet and other modern tools of
the flat world
Aims to put a spotlight on corruption,
mismanagement, and tax avoidance
Who alleviates poverty?
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Multinational corporations
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Hewlett-Packard (HP)
Rent some hi-tech equipment, like photo
studio, to Indian women
Provide training for them
Raise the women’s confidence and income
Living standard increases a lot
Factors for
unflattening of world:
Too frustrated
Consequences of the flat world:
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Greater direct contact in societies and
cultures
—sharpened their frustration
The most dangerous unflattening forces
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suicide bombers of al-Qaeda
other Islamist terror organizations
Why attack ?
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Dilemma
abandon the cherished religion
remain forever in the rear of human
technical advance
Faced with dilemma, people grow angry
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They lash out
Why attack ?
2. Humiliation
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Poverty of Dignity, not poverty of money
World get flatter, people see miles and miles
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e.g. humiliation dished up to people fiber-optically
Unflattening the world
No trust
 No flat world
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Because trust allows us to remove barriers
and eliminate friction
E.g. Supply chains
Unflattening the world
Cannot escape from unflat world
 Treat Qu’ran as a divinely inspired text
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not open to any literary criticism or
creative reinterpretation
Culture not encourage creative thinking
and critical thought
Unflattening the world
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e.g. Between 1980- 1999,
171 international patents in Arab countries.
South Korea alone registered 16,328 patents.
As a result,
--Without open environment to attract
international investment and stimulate local
innovation.
Another factor:
Too many Toyota
(Natural resource constraint)
Wars Over Energy
If India, China, Latin America and the former
Soviet Empire enter the flat world,
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demand for cars, microwave,
refrigerator……..
serious shortage of energy
unflattening effect on the world
China—Beijing
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e.g. in Beijing, one thousand new cars added
to roads a day
From World Bank,
 16 out of 20 most polluted cities in the world
are in China
 Pollution and environmental degradation
together cost China $170 billion a year
 China surged ahead of Japan as the 2nd
largest importer of oil in the world.
Oil Crisis
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Could the world afford to have 1.3 billion
people driving the same cars and using the
same amount of energy?--another oil crisis?
In 1970, coincided with Japan and Europe
rising, oil crisis appeared
Solved—Because we got smarter and
equipment became efficient
Oil Crisis
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But now, China, India and Russia come in the
same period?
The demand is multiplied by a factor of ten!
Can it be solved again?
Therefore, they have to hold back and
consume less for the greater global good
Unflattening effect
1. Gasoline prices will continue to trend higher
2. Very worst political systems in the world-like
Sudan, Iran and Saudi Arabia become worse
3. Environment will be damaged more and
more.
 Species and ecosystems can’t adapt that fast
- currently threatened species will be
condemned to extinction and health damaged
Dell Notebook –
Manufacturing Process
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Order
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Parts manufacturing
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Supplier logistics centers
Assembly & boxing
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Sales representative
Dell’s order management system
Dell’s factory
Shipping
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UPS
Multiple Suppliers
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Intel microprocessor
- Philippines, Costa Rica, Malaysia
memory
- Korea, Taiwan, Germany
graphics card
- China
cooling fan
- Taiwan
motherboard
- Shanghai, Taiwan
Keyboard
- Tianjin, Shenzen
LCD display
- South Korea, Japan
wireless card
– China, Malaysia
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modem
- China
battery
- Malaysia, Mexico, China
hard disk
- Singapore, Thailand, Philippines
CD/DVD drive
-Indonesia, Philippines
notebook carrying bag
- China
power adapter
- Thailand, China
power cord
- China, Malaysia, and India
removable memory
– Israel, Malaysia
Demand Shaping
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supply chain runs short at time t
signal is relayed to marketing department
provide promotion/upgrade
Using such promotions, Dell can reshape the
demand for any part of any notebook or
desktop to correspond with the projected
supply in its global supply chain
Geopolitics and the Flat World
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Interplay between the traditional global
threats and the newly emergent global
supply chains
McDonald's theory
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Middle class
Network of McDonald's
McDonald's country
People in McDonald's countries didn't like to fight
wars anymore. They preferred to wait in line for
burgers.
Rationale: countries tied their economies and futures
to global integration and trade, it would act as a
restraint on going to war with their neighbors
Dell’s Theory
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No two countries that are both part of a
major global supply chain, like Dell's, will ever
fight a war against each other as long as they
are both part of the same global supply chain.
Don't: fight wars
Do: make deliveries of goods and services,
and enjoy the rising standards of living
China and Japan
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China: develop level of credibility
Japanese company: move low and middle
range technical work and manufacturing to
China
Strong Japan and strong China
Win-win
China and Taiwan
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Taiwan: third-largest information technology
hardware producer, Silicon Shield
China: hundreds of big American technology
companies running R & D operations
Majority of Taiwanese voted against
independence
India and Pakistan
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Dell Theory is working on only one party India
India: world's knowledge and service supply
chain, back offices
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American Express, General Electric, British Airways,
Wipro
stable, predictable operating environment
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International Firms: difficult to switch
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Better future, no territory
Dell’s Theory
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Governments whose countries are enmeshed
in global supply chains will have to think
three times, not just twice, about engaging in
anything but a war of self-defense
Disadvantage of Flat World
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Natural resource constraint
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Pandemic disease
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Terrorist attack
Pandemic disease
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SARS in China
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Spread to 5 countries within 24 hours
Further to 30 countries on 6 continents in several
months
Cause billions dollars in economic loss
Reasons:
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speed and intensity of air travel
Intense connectivity of people and goods
Pandemic disease
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Fast transmission of disease
Inefficient mechanism to fight against
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Set up barriers to stop interaction between
countries
Delivery of life-saving vaccine and medical
supplies are difficult
Not enough storage of inventories of
medical supplies
Terrorist attack
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Al-Qaeda used internet to organize
terrorism
Cyber-terrorism
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Small to act big
Fundraising
Recruiting members
Obtain flat world data