Transcript Slide 1

Changing Missouri Demographics: Local Population Trends
January 22nd, 2010
Springfield, Missouri
Tracy Greever-Rice PhD, Associate Director
Office of Social & Economic Data Analysis (OSEDA)
University of Missouri
Overview of Session
• A few words about OSEDA
• Missouri Demographic Trends
• The 2010 Census
– The Decennial Census 2010
– The American Community Survey (ACS)
• Understanding Local Missouri
Communities Using ACS Applications
– http://mcdc1.missouri.edu/acsprofiles/acsprofil
emenu.html
OSEDA…
Http://WWW.OSEDA.MISSOURI.EDU
• Data
• Information
• Knowledge
• Wisdom
“The construction of knowledge
involves the orderly loss of
information, not it’s mindless
accumulation.”
-- Kenneth Boulding
OSEDA collaborates with partners in the analysis of social and economic data
in ways that contribute to improvements in the well-being of people,
enterprises and communities.
TRENDS…
Total Population 2009
World: 6.8 Billion
U.S.: 307 Million
Mo.:
5,987,580
Change in Population
Change in Population By State
By State
2000
– 2008 2000 – 2008
Total Population 2009
World: 6.8 Billion
U.S.: 307 Million
Mo.:
5,987,580
Missouri 381,515 6.8%
US
24,834,593 8.8%
U.S. Increase 24.8 Million (8.8%)
Six States account for 55%
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Using the latest 2009
Population Estimates to
make projections for
2010 -- Missouri retains
the 9th
The December estimates
show Arizona growing a
little less rapidly…
But, migration is being
impacted by the
recession, and
“Complete Count”
issues may make
the difference.
The Trends are Diverse: Regions within Regions
Population Estimates
• More Population Estimates via OSEDA at
MCDC.missouri.edu
• Sub-County Estimates for 2008 just
released….Columbia officially over
100,000.
• OSEDA County Profiles
TRENDS…
Population Pyramids of Missouri
Percent
2000 of Total Population
2020
Male
5
4
85+
80 - 84
75 - 79
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 29
20 - 24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5-9
0-4
Female
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Female
Male
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
TRENDS…
Quality of Life
Quality of Life
2010 Census
• Mother of all address lists (enumeration)
• Only “Short Form” in 2010 (the count)
• Reapportionment and redistricting file by
the end of 2010.
• Representation and Resource Allocation
• Issues: “Disproportionate Undercount”
• Hence: “Complete Count” Programs
• Instead of “Long Form” we have:
– “The American Community Survey”
American Community Survey
• Nationwide, continuous annual survey collecting
the information on the 2000 Census “long form”
– Demographic, Economic, Social and Housing
– From 1 in 6 households in 2000 to 1 in 8 now
– Three Million households a year
• Most definitive source of such data (allocations)
• Involves Margins of Error --- ( +/- ) like polls.
– OSEDA Web application uses bold font for low MOE…
• Three types of estimates each year based on size
– 1-Year -- 65,000 population or more (Available Now)
– 3-Year -- 20,000 population or more (Available Now)
– 5-year -- Less than 20,000 population (Coming fall 2010)
American Community Survey
• Resources:
– Http://OSEDA.Missouri.edu
– Http://mcdc.missouri.edu
– Http://census.gov
• Applications
Http://OSEDA.Missouri.edu
Reports/Applications
Demographics
Profiles
Trends
http://mcdc1.missouri.edu/acsprofiles/acsprofilemenu.html
http://mcdc1.missouri.edu/acsprofiles/acstrendmenu.html
Public Use Mirco Areas (PUMS)
Under 20K Period
Estimates will be
Available in the fall
of 2010
Annual County
Maps will then
be possible
from ACS
Changing Missouri Demographics: Local Population Trends
January 22nd, 2010
Springfield, Missouri
Tracy Greever-Rice PhD, Associate Director
Office of Social & Economic Data Analysis (OSEDA)
University of Missouri