Expected Market Share n’ Stuff
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Transcript Expected Market Share n’ Stuff
AAE 451 Senior Aircraft Design Spring 2006
Systems Requirement Review
Group VI
Team Members:
John Collins
Chad Davis
Chris Fles
Danny Sze Ling Lim
Justin Rohde
Ryan Schulz
Ronald Wong
Yusaku Yamashita
Business Case
Objective:
To determine the feasibility of an alternate fuel business or general
aviation (GA) aircraft.
Who would buy our plane?
• Air Charter (Pogo, Net Jets)
Pogo predicts the capture of 2% of 30 million trips < 500 miles is
profitable
• Air Taxi (Linear Air, One Sky)
Linear Air taxi - 16,000 pax./day traveling within 500 nm
• Corporate Flight Departments
Small - medium size businesses
What are we selling?
• 6-passenger Alternative Fueled Twin-Engine Propeller-Driven Aircraft
Affordable Operating Costs
Viable replacement for current aging fleet of business aircraft
Current Market
Global fleet of business turboprop aircraft totaled 9,785 in
2002.
In 2002, air taxi accounted for 3.9% of GA aircraft usage;
business accounted for 24.2%.
40% of current standing orders are from small-business
fractional operators (Honeywell).
76% of turboprops operated are light (< 12,500 lbs GTOW)
Within current U.S. business aircraft fleet:
• 28.3% Light Jet (Avg. age: 16.1 years)
• 2.7% Light Turboprop (Avg. age: 7.1 years)
• 37.3% Medium Turboprop (Avg. age: 21.8 years)
Projected Market
Projected overall market worth of $107.5 billion within ten
years for new aircraft sales.
Fractional ownership expected to increase from 10% to
24% in 2012 (Rolls-Royce).
An estimated 20% of business market using air taxi
services by 2010’s (Eclipse).
Foreign Markets
Europe
World’s second largest business aircraft fleet
• 2,250 Aircraft; 1,432 are jets
In Moscow, business aviation is expected to grow with a
vast Air Taxi network envisaged.
Operational flexibility attracting interest from airliners such
as Lufthansa to launch their own private jet business.
Information from www.EBAA.org
• 866 air taxi companies operating 1,190 aircraft
• 615 flight departments owned by European corporations
operating 861 aircraft
Asia
Within 20 years China will buy 2,400 aircraft worth US
$200 billion
Projected Market Share
Sources of sales:
• Replacement of aging fleets (majority of new aircraft
purchases).
• First-time purchases from small businesses previously unable
to afford ownership.
• Air taxi services new to market.
Goal of 50-100 aircraft per year in initial sales.
Capture/retain minimum 20% market share as percentage
overall of business/air taxi sales increase.
Customer Attributes
Operators
• Performance
Speed
Range
Takeoff Distance
Ceiling
• Economics
Direct Operating Costs /
Acquisition costs
Reliability and Maintainability
Turn over time
Support and Training
Upgradeable
• Safety
Noise and Vibrations issues
• Aesthetics
Interior Design
End Users
• Performance
Speed
Range
• Economics
Ticket Prices
Reliability and Availability
• Safety
Noise and Vibrations Issues
Weather Restrictions
• Aesthetics
Comfort
Cabin Size
QFD Matrix
Design Requirements
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Performance
Max. Range ~ 1000 nm
Max. Speed ~ 300 kts
Cruise Speed ~ 240kts
Ceiling ~ 25,000 ft
Gross Weight ~ 8500 lb
T.O./Landing Distance
< 2100 ft
General Characteristics
•
Cost efficient
•
Use Renewable Source of Fuel
•
Reduce CO2 and NOx Emissions
•
Low Noise
•
FAR compliance
Competing Aircraft
Eclipse 500 – 2300 aircraft orders
Adam A700 – 280 aircraft sales
Cessna Mustang – 230 aircraft sales
Representative Design Mission
500 nm range
45 Min. Reserve
IFR Cruise at 250-300 KCAS
Climb to 25,000 ft.
Take-off 2100 ft. Runway
10 Min. Taxi
Descend for Landing
Economy Cruise
Begin IFR Landing
Execute Missed Landing
1 pilot (225 lbs.)
6 passengers (225 lbs. each, including luggage)
1575 lbs. total payload
Land 2100 ft. Runway
Questions