Transcript FREIGHT TRANSPORT RESEARCH IN AFRICA & ASIA

FREIGHT TRANSPORT
RESEARCH IN AFRICA &
ASIA
John Hine
FREIGHT TRANSPORT RESEARCH TOPICS
 Modelling Vehicle Operating Costs for Road Appraisal
– Can time savings be used productively ?
– Speed and fuel consumption
– Vehicle maintenance costs
 Examining the efficiency and constraints of national transport
systems.
– Reducing Empty Running
– Comparative Transport Costs and Tariffs between Africa
and Asia
 Improving the efficiency of rural transport
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SURVEY PROCEDURES
Procedure
Vehicle Load,
Fleet
Tariff
Utilisation, Fuel,
empty
Speed
running
Mainte
nance
costs
Roadside
Survey
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Pakistan, China,
Tanzania,
Driver records
Y
Y
Y
Y
Pakistan
Travelling
observer
Y
Y
Y
Y
Pakistan
Y
Pakistan, China,
Indonesia,
Tanzania
Office
interviews
Y
Freight
Agents
Pakistan
Y
Instrumented
Vehicle
Truck parks
Road
Country
roughn examples
ess/
shocks
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Indonesia,
Pakistan
Indonesia,
Ghana
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LOG LOADED TRIPS PER DAY = 0.97 -0.932 LOG WORKING TIME PER
TRIP (THE ELASTICITY SUGGESTS TIME SAVINGS WOULD BE FULLY
USED) – PAKISTAN TRAVELLING OBSERVER SURVEY
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MODELLING VEHICLE OPERATING
COSTS IN RELATION TO ROAD CHARACTERISTICS
 Road Appraisal Models such as HDM4 and RED calculate vehicle
operating costs as a function of road alignment, road width, traffic
volume and road roughness. The models are used to estimate the
benefits of upgrading earth and gravel roads to a paved bitumen
standard.
 The models predict vehicle speeds, fuel consumption and
maintenance costs. Generally the smoother, wider and better
aligned the road surface so the lower the operating costs. Speed
is calculated by complex formula whereby the key limiting factor
(gradient, curvature, roughness, traffic volume etc) determines
the speed. Fuel is dependent on speed and gradient. Vehicle
maintenance is dependent on road roughness.
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HDM4
(The Road Planning Model)
The Calculation of Fuel Consumption
FUEL CONSUMPTION
Uses the ARFCOM model - an instantaneous model
of engine power requirements which includes
• Tractive power to overcome resistance to motion
• Accessory power
• Internal engine resistance
ACCELERATION NOISE
Speeds in congested traffic conditions are not
constant and speed variations need to be included in
the fuel consumption model
Light Vehicle Fuel Consumption in Indonesia:
Observed to Predicted ARFCOM Results
500
450
400
Observed Fuel (cc/km)
Observed
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0
50
100
150
200
A R F CO M F u e l (c c / k m )
Predicted
250
300
Medium Truck Fuel Consumption
(Flat Straight Road in Indonesia)
800
Fuel Consumption (cc/km)
Estimated fuel
consumption with
congestion by
ARFCOM/HDM4
HDMIII no congestion
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
ARFCOM /HDM-4 no congestion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Speed (km/h)
70
80
90
100
HDM-4
MAINTENANCE PARTS CONSUMPTION
• The most important component of road user costs
• The most 'variable' and most difficult to model
• Function of new vehicle price, vehicle age and road
roughness
• HDM-4 relationships less sensitive to roughness
• Essential to calibrate
MAINTENANCE LABOUR
• Dependent on parts consumption
Observed and Predicted Vehicle
Maintenance Costs- Articulated Truck
Predicted
Observed
Vehicle Age
Tariff, Birr per qt.
Transport Tariffs depend upon Distance, Mode
and Road Surface: Evidence from Ethiopia
Transport Tariffs (Derived from
Regression Analysis)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
50
100
Distance, km
main road
rough road
animal transport
A STUDY OF EMPTY RUNNING IN CHINA
 In 1990s China had a high degree of empty running. This appeared
to relate to a high level of own account operations in addition to a
poorly developed system of commercial freight forwarding agents.
 A study was carried out in Zhengzhou (at the cross roads of main
east west and north south highways) in which 1024 truck drivers
were interviewed.
 Empty running data was compared with Pakistan and UK data and a
‘load matching’ analysis was carried out by computer. Potential
savings were estimated at between 13 % and 19% of total distance
travelled in the survey.
 Overall with a better developed freight forwarding industry about
4% of total freight vehicle distance may be saved in China.
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Empty Running in China and Pakistan
LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE INDEX : LPI
The LPI is a set of indicators that measure perceptions of the
logistics environment of 155 countries on several logistics
dimensions. The survey uses an anonymous, web-based
questionnaire and assess several logistics dimensions:
• International transportation costs;
• Domestic transportation costs;
• Timeliness of shipments;
• Traceability of shipments;
• Transport and IT infrastructure;
• Customs and other border procedures; and
• Logistics competence.
TRANSPORT QUALITY IS LOW IN AFRICA : LPI
Transport Quality
(LPI)
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.01
3.0
3.91
3.99
USA
Western
Europe
3.14
2.73
2.49
2.5
2.19
2.27
West
Africa
Central
Africa
2.0
East Southern LAC
Africa Africa
Eastern
europe
October 2007
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TRANSPORT COSTS IN AFRICA AND ASIA
 Over the past 25 years there have been at least five
major comparative studies of transport costs in
Africa and Asia
 The studies confirm that transport tariffs in Africa,
for comparable journeys are many times higher than
in Africa than in Asia
 However there are differences in the reasons behind
the higher costs: earlier studies emphasised cost
factors while the latest study by the World Bank
(2009) puts more emphasis on very high profits.
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TRANSPORT COSTS IN AFRICA & ASIA: MAIN SOURCES
TRL Study on Pakistan, INRETS & LET, Francophone Africa. See: A
comparison of the costs and productivity of road freight transport in
Africa and Pakistan. Transport Reviews, Vol 13, No.2, Rizet & Hine,
1993
A Comparison of Freight Transport Operations in Tanzania and
Indonesia,1997. TRL Report 267. J Hine, J. Ebden and P Swan)
The transition from non-motorised to motorised modes of transport.
7th World Conference on Transport Research, Sydney, 1995( S. Ellis
& J. Hine).
: Transport Prices and Costs in Africa: A review of the International
Corridors. By S. Teravaninthorn and G. Raballand. World bank 2009
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Comparison of Long Distance Tariffs:
US$ per ton km, 1988
Tariff Comparison
Tariff (1988 US cents/tonne/km)
50
Cameroon
40
Ivory Coast
30
20
Mali
10
Pakistan
0.2
0.5
1
2
5
10
Thousand tonne km per trip
20
50
INPUT COSTS (1988 US$)
Africa
Taxes:
New vehicle
Tyre
Diesel (US$/L)
Annual costs :
Crew
Veh. Insurance
Goods insurance
Licenses and taxes
with
Pakistan
without
154,500 123,300
758
425
0.50
0.74
4,888
1,751
1,028
1,361
4,888
1,432
839
-
with
without
39,710
224
0.27
33,093
169
0.24
4,103
8
145
4,103
8
-
FREIGHT TRANSPORT COSTS
Africa
Pakistan
Design Payload
tons
25
13
Mean Payload
tons
32
26
Empty running
%
34
12
Annual travel
km
50,000
123,000
US cents per km
Depreciation, Interest
35.5
4.0
Fuel
39.4
13.2
Maintenance
32.0
5.2
Tyres
16.9
1.8
Crew
9.8
3.3
Insurance
5.6
0.006
Taxes, Overheads
17.5
1.0
Police, Agents Fees
6.1
2.4
Total costs per km
Total costs per ton km
162.6
7.6
31.0
1.4
Tariffs per ton/km 1995 prices
Component price US$, 1995
Item
Tanzania
Indonesia
Pakistan
2 axle truck
64 900
22 300
24 200
3 axle truck
97 400
n.a.
37 800
Artic
135 000
73 100
46 500
292
142
169
Diesel/ltr
0.435
0.166
0.32
Oil/ltr
2.27
1.66
1.0
Maint. Lab.
2.11
2.19
0.7
Crew: 2 axle
136
219
320
Crew: Artic
203
263
400
Truck tyre
DIFFERENT MODES OF TRANSPORT
 Many factories in Thailand
produce the Etan farm vehicle
out second hand parts. They
can give low transport costs for
small loads travelling short and
medium distances.
 The power tiller (or single axle
tractor) is now an important
means of transport, particularly
in rural Asia.
 Both of these vehicles may not
be licensed to operate in Africa.
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Comparison of operating tariffs
1995 for local rural transport vehicles
Thailand
-
Pickup
Cents
/t km
Truck (8-12
t.) Cents
/t km
Tractor
Cents/ hr
8.7
Power Tiller
Cents/ hr
Sri
Lanka
-
Pakistan
Ghana
Zimbabwe
13.7
39.0
-
-
-
2.1
20.6
21.4
-
320
270
1 240
740
123
127
-
357
-
Vehicle utilisation:
local transport vehicles
Pickup
km/yr
Tractor
hr/yr
Power
Tiller hr/yr
Ox cart
hr/yr
Donkey
cart km/yr
Thailand SriLanka
Pakistan Ghana
Zimbabwe
61 000
-
44 000 29 000
-
1 440
1 900
800
750
500
740
-
400
-
-
875
2 000
-
400
-
-
4 600
1 600
-
-
0
8
6
3.5
7
AfricaDoualaNdjaména
12
10
Africa –
Mombasa
Kampala
Africa- Lomé Ouagadougou
5
AfricaDurbanLusaka
2
5
Western
Europe – long
distance
4
5
China
USA
Brazil
4
2
Pakistan
Average transport prices
(in US cents per tkm)
TRANSPORT TARIFFS US$ Per Ton Km 2007
(WORLD BANK STUDY )
14
11
8
27
Estimated Costs from 2007 Study
Corridor
Central
Africa
(Cameroon)
East Africa
(Uganda and
Kenya)
West Africa
(Burkina and
Ghana)
Route
Gateway-Destination
Variable
Cost
(US$ / km)
Fixed Cost
(US$ / day)
Yearly
ratio
FC/VC
Average
yearly
mileage
Average
truck fleet
age
Profit
margin
Douala-N’Djaména
(Chad)
0.93
58
25% - 74%
60-70
12
74%
Douala-Bangui (CAR)
0.92
80
33% - 66%
50-60
10
120%
Ngaounderé-N’Djaména
(Chad)
1.29
29
24% - 75%
50-60
15
158%
Ngaoundéré-Moundou
(Chad)
1.70
27
29% - 70%
10-20
19
289%
Kampala-Mombasa
(Kenya)
0.90
65
29% - 70%
130-140
12
42%
Mombasa-Kampala
(Uganda)
0.62
92
46% - 53%
130-140
7
107%
OuagadougouTema/Accra (Ghana)
1.01
30
15% - 84%
30-40
12
183%
Tema/Accra-Bamako
(Mali)
0.93
34
17% - 82%
20-30
9
310%
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High Transport Costs In Africa
Earlier Studies Stressed:
• High initial input prices for vehicles, fuel, parts
• Exclusive dealerships, low demand
• Poor driver knowledge of vehicle maintenance
• Unnecessary fast driving speeds
• Poor road surfaces
• Little competition, particularly on rural routes
• Low utilisation caused by low density of demand and
operation of operator cartels
HIGH TRANSPORT COSTS IN AFRICA - 2
Later studies emphasised:





Most vehicles are imported second hand
Low utilisation of vehicles
High barrier costs on international routes
Super profits being made by operators
The presence of cartels preventing competition
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Pakistan – a Model for Success ?
• One of the most efficient
freight transport systems in
the world
• Large network of freight
forwarding agents
– individually owned
– 25% general merchandise
– 75% specialist consignments
e.g. quarried materials, iron,
steel
– ⅓ of consignments were
“smalls” (< one ton)
Credit: TRL Limited
FREIGHT AGENT
FACTORS PROMOTING LOW COST
TRANSPORT IN PAKISTAN - OPERATIONAL






On-the-job training for drivers
Drivers given a lot of responsibility
Continuous vehicle maintenance practiced
Two drivers per vehicle achieve high utilization
Oil changed frequently
Slow driving speeds
FACTORS PROMOTING LOW COST
TRANSPORT IN PAKISTAN - ORGANISATIONAL
Very competitive free market
 Little government regulation
 Efficient network of forwarding agents
 Low initial vehicle prices
 Many cheap parts made locally
 Many good local workshops
 High Density of Demand

DENSITY OF DEMAND : GPD PER SQ KM IN 2011
1,000,000
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
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GHANA . GPRTU 1.
About 70% of transport operators belong to the GPRTU (Ghana Private
Road Transport Union of the TUC). The Union runs most of the truck
and bus parks in the country. It also enforces passenger fares.
A queuing system is enforced by the truck and bus parks. Operators
are assigned to certain routes. Customers are directed to the first
vehicle in the queue, which will move once the vehicle is full.
Freight drivers can queue for two weeks to get a load.
There are a number of large bus companies that operate in urban and
interurban routes, however virtually all rural and freight transport is
run by informal small scale operators.
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GHANA -GPRTU 2.
The union tries to assist members in various ways. Michel Delaquis’
study found that they would help long serving drivers become
owners operators through advancing loans.
It is possible for freight operators to bypass the queuing system and
visit factories, etc, for loads on spec. Although ‘fines’ have
sometimes been imposed for doing this.
Freight Transport Tariffs are very high. A recent study found
transporting an import container from Accra to Ougadougou was
$4,800 compared with $654 between Newark and Chicago, (i.e. 7
times for a similar distance). An export container cost 2.5 times as
much.
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MALAWI TRANSPORT COSTS
 A recent study by the World Bank found a 20 fold difference in
transport charges between transport of tobacco between
local towns and city compared with the charges for
international transport to export ports.
 The main reasons identified were a combination of
infrastructure issues, and segmented markets preventing
competition.
 It was suggested that larger trucks would find it difficult to
operate on rural roads, and there was likely to be higher
empty running on shorter trips.
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Malawi Transport Costs
for Tobacco
Origin
Destinati
on
Distance
Km
Load
ton
Price
Price Kwacha
Kwacha ton/km
Price US $
ton/km
Ag.
town
City
85
2.5
19,323
228.4
$ 2.10
Ag.
town
Export
port
2272
24.6
23,462
10.3
9.5 Cents
City
Export
port
2012
19.9
24,433
12.1
11.2 Cents
Explaining High Transport Costs within Malawi - Bad Roads or Lack of
Trucking Competition?
Policy Research Working Paper 5133, Somik V. Lall, Hyoung Wang,
Thomas Munthali – World Bank, 2009
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A Comparison of Transport Operations in
Cameroon
The Mayor of Ngoundere District in Northern
Cameroon decided to address the issue of poor
transport services and high tariffs. Substantial
results followed.
A comparison was made by surveys between
Ngoundere and two other Districts in the South
Cameroon
Second surveys
First surveys around Buea
Characteristics of Transport in Southern
Cameroon
• Transport operations are organised by syndicates
• The syndicate determines fares and routes
• The drivers wait in line and only leave when they
are full
• The syndicate negotiates with the mayor for
access and fees for the terminal
• The vehicles tend to be small (taxis), overloaded
and in poor condition
Will this provide a good service?
Transport Characteristics in
Northern Cameroon
• There are a number of travel agencies operating
in competition with each other
• The mayor has granted licenses for these travel
agencies to operate out of individual terminals in
the town
• The operations are professional and regular
• The vehicles are clean, well maintained and large
30 seaters
Kwatal Travel Agency
Impact of these differences on the
customer
• In the North passenger fares dropped by 50% in 2
years as competition increased
• In the North customers had a safer and more
comfortable ride
• Greater service frequency to rural areas
• Customer/user becomes the focus
• The price of transport is dramatically lower in the
North than the South
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Cameroon Study Policy Implications
• Support of a more competitive environment can
have a large pay off.
• In these cases infrastructure was not an issue - if
anything the quality of infrastructure was worse in
the North.
• When transport is provided as it is in the North it is
possible to start thinking about introducing subsidy
on remote and economically unviable routes.
Further research papers are available on the TRL transport-links
website: . http://www.transport-links.org/transport_links/index.asp
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