Project Overview - National Statistical Coordination Board

download report

Transcript Project Overview - National Statistical Coordination Board

The Philippine Millennium Development Goals: Where Are We Now?

Presented by: DIRECTOR ERLINDA M. CAPONES Social Development Staff National Economic and Development Authority

I.

Philippine Millennium Development Goals: Are We On Track?

Where are we in terms of achieving the MDGs?

II.

How do we accelerate the attainment of the MDGs?

III.

How do we assess our statistical database system?

IV.

How do we improve MDG monitoring?

Population Size: 76.Million

(2000) Estimated Population: 88.7 Million (2007) Land area: 300,000 square kilometers Islands: 7,107 Regions: 17

I. Where are we in terms of achieving the MDGs?

TRACKING METHODOLOGY

Ratio of required annual rate of change to reach the target to actual annual rate of change where:

Actual Annual Rate of Change = Current – Baseline No. of yrs. from baseline to current year Required Annual Rate of Change = Target – Current No. of yrs. from current year to target year Ratio = Required Annual Rate of Change Actual Annual Rate of Change

How do we assess whether MDG targets will be met?

Probability of Attaining the Target LOW MEDIUM HIGH Ratio > 2.0

1.5 to 2.0

< 1.5

MDG

Rate of Progress: Philippines MDG Targets

BASELINE (1990 or year closest to 1990) CURRENT LEVEL TARGET BY 2015 PROBABILITY OF ATTAINING THE TARGET ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY AND HUNGER Proportion of population below Subsistence threshold Poverty threshold 24.3

45.3

13.5

(2003) 30.0

(2003) 12.15

22.65

HIGH HIGH Proportion of families below Subsistence threshold Poverty threshold 20.4

39.9

10.2

(2003) 24.4

(2003) 10.2

19.95

HIGH HIGH Proportion of households with per capita intake < 100% dietary energy requirement 69.4

56.9

(2003) 34.7

HIGH % underweight among 0-5 year old children 34.5

24.6

(2005) 17.25

HIGH

MDG BASELINE (1990 or year closest to 1990) Rate of Progress: Philippines MDG Targets CURRENT LEVEL TARGET BY 2015 PROBABILITY OF ATTAINING THE TARGET REDUCE CHILD MORTALITY Under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) 80 32 (2006) 26.7

HIGH Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) 57 24 (2006) 19 COMBAT HIV / AIDS, MALARIA AND OTHER DISEASES HIV prevalence rate Malaria morbidity rate (per 100,000 patients) <1% 123 <1% 59 (2004) <1% (2010) 24 (2010) HIGH HIGH HIGH ENSURE ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY Proportion of families with access to safe drinking water 73.7

80.2

(2004) 86.8

HIGH Proportion of families with access to sanitary toilet facility 67.6

86.2

(2004) 86 HIGH

MDG BASELINE (1990 or year closest to 1990) Rate of Progress: Philippines MDG Targets CURRENT LEVEL TARGET BY 2015 PROBABILITY OF ATTAINING THE TARGET ACHIEVE UNIVERSAL PRIMARY EDUCATION Elementary participation rate 85.1

84.4

(2005-2006) Elementary cohort survival rate Elementary completion rate 68.4

66.5

69.9

(2005-2006) 67.99

(2005-2006) 100 84.67

81.04

PROMOTE GENDER EQUALITY AND EMPOWER WOMEN Ratio of girls to 100 boys Elementary education 95.05

94.27

(2005) 100 Secondary education 104.2

106.83

100 Maternal mortality ratio IMPROVE MATERNAL HEALTH 209 162 (2006) 52.2

INCREASE ACCESS TO REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH SERVICES Prevalence of men and women/couples practicing responsible parenthood 40 50.6

(2006) 80 LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW

Region I CAR II III IV-A IV-B V VI VII VIII IX /2 X XI /3 XII /4 CARAGA ARMM NCR Rate of Progress: Sub-National MDG Targets Goal 3 Proportion of population below subsistence threshold High High High High High Low High High High High Low High High High Low High High Proportion of population below poverty threshold High High High High Low Low High High High Low Low Medium High High Low Low High Goal 1 Prevalence of malnutrition among 0-5 year-old children High Medium High High High Low High High High Low Low Medium High Medium High Low High Proportion of households with per capita intake below 100% dietary energy requirement Low High High Medium Low High Low High Low Low Low Medium High Medium No baseline Low High Goal 2 Elementary participation rate Low High Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Medium Elementary cohort survival rate Low High Medium Low Low Low Low Low Medium Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low High Ratio of girls to 100 boys in elementary Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Ratio of girls to 100 boys in secondary Low High Low Medium Low High Medium Medium Low High Low Low Low High High High Low High

Goal 4 Regions I CAR II III IV-A IV-B V VI VII VIII IX /2 X XI /3 XII /4 CARAGA ARMM NCR Under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000 children) High High High High High High High High High High High High High High Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) Low High High Low High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High Medium Maternal mortality ratio Goal 5 Prevalence of men and women/ couples practicing responsible parenthood High High Low Low High High Low Low High Low Low Low High Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low High Medium Medium Low Low Low Low Low High Medium Low Low Low Goal 6 HIV Prevalence * * No data * * No data No data * * No data * No data No baseline * No reported cases * * Malaria morbidity rate (per 100,000 population) High High Low ** ** ** High ** No baseline No data ** High High No baseline High ** High Proportion of families with access to safe drinking water High High High High High Low Medium High High High High High High High Goal7 No baseline No baseline Medium Proportion of families with access to sanitary toilet facility High High High High High High High High High High High High High High No baseline No baseline High

II. How do we accelerate the attainment of the MDGs?

MEETING THE 2015 CHALLENGE

Addressing wide disparities across regions

Curbing the high population growth rate

Accelerating the implementation of basic education and health reforms

MEETING THE 2015 CHALLENGE

Ensuring strict enforcement of laws pertinent to the achievement of the MDGs

Strengthening the capacity of LGUs to deliver basic services and manage programs and projects

Ensuring transparency and accountability in government transactions

MEETING THE 2015 CHALLENGE

Generating and mobilizing increased resources for MDG-related programs and projects

Strengthening partnership with NGOs, business sector and ODA community

III. How do we assess our statistical database system?

What are the indicators used in monitoring the MDGs?

Total Indicators Available Not Available Not Applicable

48 30 7 11

1.

below $1 (PPP) per day 2.

Proportion of population Poverty gap ratio 3.

national consumption 4.

children under 5 yrs of age 5.

below minimum level of dietary energy consumption 6.

primary education 7.

grade 1 who reach grade 6 8.

old 9.

primary and secondary education 10.

11.

12.

13.

Share of poorest quintile in Prevalence of underweight Proportion of population Net enrolment ratio in Proportion of pupils starting Literacy rate of 15-24 year Ratio of girls to boys in Ratio of literate females to males Share of women in wage employment in non agricultural sector Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament Under-five mortality rate 14.

Infant mortality rate 15.

Proportion of 1 year-old children immunized against measles Total MDG Indicators = 48 16.

Maternal mortality ratio 17.

18.

19.

rate 20.

21.

22.

23.

24.

Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel HIV prevalence among 15-24 year old pregnant women 25.

26.

Condom use rate of the contraceptive prevalence Number of children orphaned by HIV/AIDS Prevalence and death rates associated with malaria Proportion of pop. In malaria risk areas using effective malaria prevention & treatment measures Prevalence and death rates associated with tuberculosis Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured under directly observed treatment short course (DOTS) Proportion of land area covered by forest Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to surface area 27.

28.

Energy use per $1 GDP Carbon dioxide emissions 29.

solid fuels 30.

sustainable access to improved water source 31.

population with access to improved sanitation 32.

access to secure tenure 33.

LDCs, as percentage of OECD/DAC donors' gross national income 34.

sector-allocable ODA of OECD/DAC donors to basic social servcies 35.

of OECD/DAC donors that is untied 36.

37.

38.

39.

Proportion of pop. using Proportion of pop. with Proportion of urban Proportion of HH with Net ODA, total and to Proportion of total bilateral, Proportion of bilateral ODA ODA received in landlocked countries as proportion of their GNIs ODA received in small island developing States as proportion of their GNIs Proportion of total developed country imports Average tariffs imposed by developed countries on agricultural products and textiles and clothing from developing countries 40.

Agricultural support estimate for OECD countries as percentage of their GDP 41.

42.

43.

44.

45.

Proportion of ODA provided to help build trade capacity Total number of countries that have reached their HIPC decision points completion points 46.

47.

48.

Debt relief committed under HIPC initiative, US$ Debt service as a % of exports of goods and services Unemployment rate of 15-24 yr. old Proportion of pop. With access to affordable essential drugs Telephone lines and cellular subscribers Personal computers in use and internet users

Available Indicators = 30 1.

2.

Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day Poverty gap ratio 3.

4.

5.

Share of poorest quintile in national consumption Prevalence of underweight children under 5 yrs of age Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption 6.

primary education 7.

Net enrolment ratio in Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 6 8.

Literacy rate of 15-24 year old 9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

Ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary education Ratio of literate females to males Share of women in wage employment in non-agricultural sector Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament Under-five mortality rate 14.

Infant mortality rate 15.

Proportion of 1 year-old children immunized against measles 16.

Maternal mortality ratio 17.

18.

19.

Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel Condom use rate of the contraceptive prevalence rate 20.

Prevalence and death rates associated with malaria Prevalence and death rates associated with tuberculosis 21.

22.

Proportion of land area covered by forest Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to surface area Source: NSCB 23.

24.

Carbon dioxide emissions (per capita) and consumption of ozone-depleting CFCs Proportion of pop. using solid fuels 25.

26.

27.

Proportion of pop. with sustainable access to improved water source Proportion of urban population with access to improved sanitation Proportion of HH with access to secure tenure 28.

29.

30.

Debt service as a % of exports of goods and services Unemployment rate of 15-24 yr. old Telephone lines and cellular subscribers

Not Available = 7

1.

2.

3.

4.

HIV prevalence among 15-24 year old pregnant women No. of children orphaned by HIV/AIDS Proportion of population in malaria risk areas using effective malaria prevention and treatment measures Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured under directly observed treatment short course (DOTS) Source: NSCB 5.

6.

7.

Energy use (kg oil equivalent) per $1 GDP Proportion of population with access to affordable essential drugs on a sustainable basis Personal computer in use pr 100 population and internet users per 100 population

Not Applicable = 11

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

Net ODA, total and to LDCs, as percentage of OECD/DAC donors' gross national income Total no. of countries that have reached their HIPC decision points and number that have reached their HIPC completion points Debt relief committed under HIPC initiative, US$ Proportion of total bilateral, sector allocable ODA of OECD/DAC donors to basic social servcies (basic education, primary health care, nutrition, safe water and sanitation) Proportion of bilateral ODA of OECD/DAC donors that is untied ODA received in landlocked countries as proportion of their GNIs Source: NSCB 7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

ODA received in small island developing States as proportion of their GNIs Proportion of total developed country imports (by value and excluding arms) from developing countries and LDCs, admitted free of duties Average tariffs imposed by developed countries on agricultural products and textiles and clothing from developing countries Agricultural support estimate for OECD countries as percentage of their GDP Proportion of ODA provided to help build trade capacity (OECD and WTO are collecting data that will be available from 2001 onwards)

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

Additional Indicators

Completion rate Simple and Functional Literacy rates Drop-out rate Gender-based violence (GBV) Gender development index (GDI) Gender empowerment measure (GEM) Labor force participation rate (LFPR) by sex Women’s participation in governance 9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

Percentage of births delivered in a health facility Prenatal coverage Percentage of those injected with tetanus toxoid Provision of iron tablet supplements Prevalence of men and women/couples practicing responsible parenthood (contraceptive prevalence rate)

Major MDG Data Sources

Surveys

Family Income and

Expenditures Survey (FIES) National Demographic and

 

Health Survey (NDHS) Family Planning Survey (FPS) Annual Poverty Indicators

Survey (APIS) National Nutrition Survey

(NNS) Functional Literacy, Education and Mass Media Survey (FLEMMS)

Government Agencies

   

National Statistics Office (NSO) National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Commission on Higher Education (CHED)

   

Department of Education (DepEd) Department of Health (DOH) Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR)

 

Forest Management Bureau (FMB) Food and Nutrition Research Institute (FNRI)

National Telecommunications Commission (NTC)

What are the problems in tracking the MDG progress?

Infrequent conduct of surveys

Unavailability of data at the sub-national level

Incomparability of data

Need to improve methodology in determining probability of meeting the MDG targets

IV. How do we improve MDG monitoring?

MEETING THE 2015 CHALLENGE

Regular conduct of censuses and surveys

Nationwide adoption of Community Based Monitoring System (CBMS)

Adoption of small area estimates

MEETING THE 2015 CHALLENGE

Explore possibility of adopting a standard international methodology for determining the probability of meeting the MDG targets

Capacity-building for data generation, analysis, and monitoring

THANK YOU!