Sustainable Energy: A National and International Security Imperative

L. David Montague

We’re Out of Time!

Sustainable Energy: A National and International Security Imperative

L. David Montague A paper to frame the Issues and stimulate discussion of plausible solutions free of energy industry influence. –Draws and integrates data from June 2005 NAE sponsored conference on Sustainable Energy, and other DOE EIA sources –Proposes a holistic near term solution against a backdrop of national security and global warming concerns.

Presented at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University February 2006

Outline of Discussion

• Current and projected US and World energy consumption and supply by sector • Carbon emissions and warming • The nature of the options – Cleaner fossil fuels – Hydrogen, Fuel Cells – Solar, Wind, – Bio-fuels, – Nuclear • A proposed quantifiable solution set for near and long term mitigation of the threat

Energy use grows with economic development

energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2002) 400 US 350 300 Australia 250 200 Russia S. Korea UK France Japan 150 Greece 100 50 China Malaysia Brazil Mexico India 0 0 5,000 Steven Koonin Source: UN and DOE EIA 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

GDP per capita (PPP, $1995)

Ireland 30,000 35,000

energy demand – growth projections Global energy demand is set to grow by over 60% over the next 30 years – 74% of the growth is anticipated to be from non-OECD countries

Global Energy Demand Growth by Region (1971-2030)

18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1971 OECD 2002 2010 Transition Economies 2020 Developing Countries Notes: 1. OECD refers to North America, W. Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia and NZ 2. Transition Economies refers to FSU and Eastern European nations 3. Developing Countries is all other nations including China, India etc.

2030 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004

growing dislocation of supply & demand

• • • • • • N. America, Europe and Asia Pacific are the three largest demand centres But, have a small share of the remaining oil and gas reserves; coal is the exception Their collective shares are: Oil - 80% of demand; 15% of conventional reserves (28% incl. unconventional reserves) Gas – 61% of demand; 32% of reserves Coal – 89% of demand; 69% of reserves Steven Koonin

U.S. Energy Consumption 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1950 1960 1970 U.S. Energy Consumption at constant 1970 E/GDP U.S. Energy Consumption Efficiency; Structural Change 1970-2003 Gas 0.7Q

RETs 2.1

Nucl 7.7

Oil 9.6

Coal 10.4

1980 1990 2000

2003 US Energy Consumption by Sector & Source

15 10 5 0 45 40 35 30 25 20 Buildings Industry Transport Electricity

5 Quads or 5 Trillion ft 3

Electricity + Losses Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Renewables Nuclear

The Oil Problem

Nations that

HAVE

oil (% of Global Reserves) Saudi Arabia Iraq Kuwait Iran UAE Venezuela Russia Mexico Libya China Nigeria

U.S.

26% 11% 10% 9% 8% 6% 5% 3% 3% 3% 2%

2%

Nations that

NEED

oil (% of Global Consumption)

U.S.

Japan China Germany Russia S. Korea France Italy Mexico Brazil Canada India

26%

7% 6% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Source: EIA International Energy Annual

Petroleum supply, consumption, and imports, 1970-2025 (million barrels per day) 60% 71%

Scale of Challenge

Hybrids

Oil & Gasoline Market Behavior

• The oil market is not a free market – Demand is inelastic and growing while supply is elastic as long as reserves exist – The supply pipeline is easily manipulated • There is no incentive for oil companies to put downward pressure on oil prices, because profits rise directly with crude price – 1 bbl of crude on average yields 47% or 20 gal of gasoline; Assuming the other 53% has no value (gross underestimate), at $70/bbl the cost of crude per gal of gasoline would be: (20gal gas/42gal crude) x $70/20 =$1.67 while the average price at the pump is $3.00. Other costs are largely fixed.

– Then there is what I call the “Mysteresis” effect. Pump prices rise instantly with crude increases but lag significantly as crude prices go down. The pipeline is weeks long and refiners rarely contract at the delivery day spot price.

Total=22 Total=29

Approximate Trade Deficit Contribution of Crude Oil And Natural Gas Imports

Year Trade Deficit $400 B bbls Oil Imports 3.34 B Unit Pric e $25 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 (Est.) $500 B $600 B $725 B $800 B 3.53 B 3.69 B 3.67 B 3.72 B $30 $39 $57 $61 Total Oil $ $84 B $106 B $144 B $209 B $227 B kft 3 NG Imports 4.02 B 3.94 B 4.26 B 4.24 B 4.26 B Unit Price $3.15

$5.17

$5.81

$6 $6.20

Total NG $ $13B $20B $25B $25B $26B Total$ $97B $126B $169B $234B $253B % of Deficit 24 % 25 % 28 % 32 % 32 %

Sources: Dept of Commerce BEA and Dept of Energy EIA Crude Oil and Natural Gas Imports Now Make Up 32% of The Trade Deficit

CO

2

emissions

and GDP per capita (1980-2002)

25 US 20 Australia 15 Russia UK 10 S. Korea Japan France 5 Malaysia 0 China India 0 Brazil 5,000 Mexico 10,000 Greece 15,000 20,000 25,000

GDP per capita (PPP, $1995)

Steven Koonin Ireland 30,000 35,000

Sam Baldwin

CO

2

Emissions and Climate

-

Climate change and CO

2

emissions

CO 2 concentration is rising due to fossil fuel use The global temperature is increasing - other indicators of climate change There is a plausible causal connection - but the scientific case is not overwhelming (natural variability, forcings) Impacts of higher CO ppm) 2 quite uncertain - ~ 2X pre-industrial is a widely discussed stabilization target (550 - Reached by 2050 under BAU Precautionary action is warranted - What could the world do?

- Will we do it?

Steven Koonin

Vectors Are in The Wrong Direction

• • • Growing

reliance on unreliable foreign supply of energy presents an unacceptable threat to our national security and economic stability

–

China’s projected 8%* annual growth along with other developing countries will worsen the pressures on oil and gas supply and prices.

–

We are increasingly vulnerable to economic disruption due to gas and oil supply interruption

–

The off-shore profits help fund terrorist and fundamentalist regimes that could cause that interruption The much vaunted energy bill does little to alleviate the problem - time line is incompatible with the need There must and can be effective competitive energy sources to oil and gas suppliers * Rand Corp. Projection

Conclusions

• • • •

Ever-increasing reliance on foreign energy supply is a real and growing threat to national security The US can be energy independent within 10-15 years and radically reduce greenhouse emissions in the process The solution seems straight forward:

–

Hybrid vehicles that use bio-fuels (ethanol and bio-diesel) for the transportation sector

–

Reliance on new nuclear plants for electric power generation with fuel reprocessing to reduce high level waste by 90% We need to get on with it much more aggressively

–

A major PR campaign will be required The so called hydrogen economy is not a solution

H

2

SUPPLY PATHWAYS

Like electricity, hydrogen is an

energy carrier

that can be produced from widely available

primary energy resources Solar Biomass Wind

•

Coal w/CO2 Sequestration Natural Gas Nuclear

Hydrogen Production Dilemma

• 13 million barrels crude oil per day used in transportation – equivalent to 1.46 billion pounds per day hydrogen • This would require doubling the total US power production (850 GWe to 1780 GWe) if hydrogen were produced by conventional electrolysis. (assume 1 MW per 1000 lbs) OR • This would require 23 trillion cubic feet of natural gas per year - approximately 110% of the 2002 total US consumption, nearly doubling the total natural gas requirement. Joan Ogden UC Davis We are already a net importer of natural gas!!

Fuel Cell System Trends Compared with other Distributed Generation Technologies

70 Combined Cycle 60 Solid Oxide Fuel Cells Carbonate Fuel Cell 50 PAFC 40 PEM Fuel Cell Aero Gas Turbines 30 Industrial Gas Turbine 20 10 Stirling Engine Microturbines IC Engines 0 1 Copyright



10 Residential 100 Commercial 1,000 10,000 Industrial 100,000 500,000 Wholesale Size in kW 2005 Electric Power Research Institute,Inc All rights reserved

Sam Baldwin

Chief Technology Officer Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy

Best Research-Cell Efficiencies

36 32 28 24 20 16

Multijunction Concentrators

Three-junction (2-terminal, monolithic) Two-junction (2-terminal, monolithic)

Crystalline Si Cells

Single crystal Multicrystalline Thin Si

Thin Film Technologies

Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 CdTe Amorphous Si:H (stabilized)

Emerging PV

Dye cells Organic cells (various technologies) Westing house ARCO No. Carolina State University Boeing Kodak Solarex Spire 12 8 4 0 1975 Masushita RCA Monosolar Kodak Boeing Boeing University of Maine RCA RCA RCA RCA RCA RCA 1980 1985 Solarex

Kodak

Stanford Varian ARCO AstroPower Boeing AMETEK Spire UNSW Georgia Tech University So. Florida 1990 Boeing NREL UNSW Sharp Photon Energy United Solar University of Lausanne Japan Energy NREL UNSW Georgia Tech Euro-CIS

UCSB

1995 UNSW UNSW NREL Spectrolab NREL/ Spectrolab UNSW NREL NREL Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 14x concentration NREL NREL NREL AstroPower United Solar University of Lausanne

Cambridge

Spectrolab NREL NREL University Linz Princeton Siemens 2000 ECN, The Netherlands UC Berkeley 2005 026587136

Bio-fuels & Hybrids in Transportation can eliminate our need for imported oil

• We grow things better than any nation on earth • Biomass (corn, sugar cane and beets, sorgum, fruit, and many other waste products) are ideal feed stock.

• Arguments over whether the life cycle net energy balance ratio for ethanol is less than or greater than one, are moot if biomass is converted using the sun’s energy, or waste heat from power plants.

• CO 2 is reduced by at least 30% using ethanol and more is adsorbed in growing the biomass.

•

1.2 acres of corn yield enough ethanol (385 gal.) to run a full sized hybrid vehicle for 12K mi (the average driven during a year) at 50 mph.

•

385 m 2 of solar collector operating @75% eff. In the SW for 4.4 hrs provides the energy needed to convert corn feedstock to 385 gal of ethanol to run that vehicle for a year.

Horsepower and Gallons of Ethanol Req'd per Hybrid Vehicle Traveling 12K miles in a year

60.0

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0

40 50 60

Vehicle Speed in mph

HP Req'd vs Speed Ethanol Fuel gal x 10-1 Ethanol Produced/Acre in gal x10-1 70

How Much Ethanol Does it Take to Run Half of all US Cars?

• Less than 30 hp needed to maintain a car or light truck at 68 mph against aerodynamic drag and rolling friction; less than 9 hp to maintain it at 40 mph. • A 35 hp Ethanol fueled IC engine augmented by battery usage for acceleration with regenerative braking is adequate for hybrid full size family vehicles • to run 100 million hybrid cars for 12K miles at 50 mph on ethanol would take 385 gal. X100 X10 6 or 38.5 billion gallons of ethanol/yr.

US today produces about 5 billion gal/yr of ethanol

How Much Biomass and Land to Grow and Transform to Ethanol?

• To grow if it all came from corn: – Corn Crop yield =122 bushels per acre, and 2.6 gal of ethanol/bushel or 317 gal of Ethanol per acre – 38.5 x 10 9 gal./317 gal./acre = 121million added acres planted in corn compared to about 85 million acres currently in corn for all purposes • To transform using solar energy – 100,000 acres or 156 sq mi. of solar collector operating 250 days per year @ 6 hrs per day at 75% efficiency transforms enough corn to ethanol for 100 million cars for 12 k miles at 50 mph – Includes all conversion steps: milling, cooking, saccharification, fermenting, distilling, and dehydrating • Can also transform using waste heat from electric generating power plants

What Does Ethanol Cost?

Ethanol Mythology and Reality

• • • • • Ethanol takes more energy to make it than it delivers – Depends how you allocate energy cost to bi-products – The argument is moot since all the energy for production can be power plant waste heat or otherwise wasted incident solar radiation Ethanol has lower energy content than gasoline so it is a poor fuel choice - 125,300 vs 79,000 btu/gal – Ethanol burns slower and more efficiently in an IC engine regaining almost half of the difference in energy content.

Ethanol costs much more per mile than gasoline – A gallon of Ethanol costs about 75% of gasoline in California - about the difference in mileage per gallon Engines require redesign/modification to burn ethanol – Many engines in currently produced US cars are flexible fuel engines that can burn any blend from pure gasoline to at least 90% ethanol – Other fuel injection engines can be adapted at low cost.

Ethanol production and distribution cannot be increased rapidly – Existing gasoline distribution can be readily used for ethanol and production facilities can and will grow to meet demand

2nd Generation Hybrid Vehicle Proposed For Long Term

• Uses 35 hp flex fuel engine to overcome drag and rolling friction and battery charging relying on battery power for acceleration at highway speeds as well as low speed operation.

• Requires more batteries with high energy density, high surge current capability, and long cycle life.

• Lithium Ion nanoelectrode battery technology appears most promising solution with potential for: – Many thousands of cycles with electrodes not susceptible to fatigue failure – High current capable, fast recharging – Good ruggedness and safety

But not mature in required sizes for several years

Biofueled Hybrids, Natural Gas and Nuclear Power Inexorably Linked

• To be energy independent, natural gas fired power plants must eventually be replaced by nuclear or coal fired plants • Future fuel efficient hybrids depend on high energy density batteries - Lithium Ion technology.

• The production and replentishment of such batteries for 100 million vehicles will increase electrical power generation demand • Is there enough Lithium? Is it safe enough?

The 21

st

Century Reemergence of Nuclear Power

• Improved nuclear power performance • Global climate change and carbon emission constraints • Increase in natural gas demand and costs • Non-proliferation and arms reduction agreements require the consumption of fissile warhead materials • Advanced systems for economic, versatile, sustainable, minimal waste and proliferation resistant nuclear power plants Dr.Lawrence Papay Retired VP SAIC

Current Status: A Dramatic Increase in Output

Equal to



Equal to 23 new 1,000-MW plants 4 new 1,000-MW plants

850,000 800,000 750,000 700,000 650,000 600,000 550,000 576,862 1990 640,440 673,702 727,915 1994 1998 1999 753,900 2000 2005

Dr.Lawrence Papay Retired VP SAIC

3 Obstacles to Increased Use of Nuclear Power

• • •

Fear about nuclear energy safety The cost of siting, approval process, & building The disposal of high level waste There are effective solutions to remove these obstacles

A Safety Reliability and Cost Perspective

• •

US Naval Reactor Program has produced and operated well over 100 >50MW output reactors with an impeccable safety record. Operated by 4-5 personnel per shift The Keys:

–

Standard reactor designs and procedures

– –

Excellent reactor school and training program Streamlined regulatory processes

• • • •

French commercial reactors used standard designs By comparison most of US commercial reactors are one of a kind with widely different procedures Lots of bugs worked out before potential was realized Even so, the safety record including TMI is good.

Nuclear Safety

• Perspective: TMI and Chernobyl • Status Today

Worldwide: 441 Reactors, 2574 terawatt hours North America: 31 Reactors under construction (several more ordered) 17% of world’s electricity 118 Reactors, 118 Gigawatts (103 in U.S. = 20% of electricity 15 in Canada = 12% of electricity)

Dr.Lawrence Papay Retired VP SAIC

Reducing The Cost of Siting, Construction and Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

• Standardization of plant design • Streamlining regulatory requirements and approval process for siting of nuclear power plants • Using the Naval Reactor model for standardization, design, construction, training and operating procedures • Rethinking the waste problem

Nuclear Wastes

• All nuclear fuel cycle waste (except HLW) has been safely and reliably disposed of through DOE and NRC regulations (milling, enrichment, fabrication) • Since 1982, US law ‘defines’ spent nuclear fuel as HLW, since reprocessing has not occurred since 1976 • Spent fuel is currently stored at >100 nuclear power plant sites with eventual storage/burial at Yucca Mt.

• All nuclear electricity is taxed at 1 mill/kwhr for a HLW fund (>$20 billion) • HLW radiation exposure at disposal site less than natural background radiation levels in that region Dr.Lawrence Papay Retired VP SAIC

Nuclear Proliferation: Myths and Realities

• The US adopted a “once through” fuel cycle to minimize proliferation • In fact, the “unintended consequence” has been the development of fuel reprocessing elsewhere to meet nuclear fuel needs • The separation of uranium, actinides and fission products would reduce the requirements for long term geologic storage • Advanced fuel cycles take all of this into account Dr.Lawrence Papay Retired VP SAIC

AFCI Approach to Spent Fuel Management

Advanced, Proliferation-Resistant Recycling

Spent Fuel From Commercial Plants

Direct Disposal Advanced Separations Technologies

LWR/ALWR/HTGR

Conventional Reprocessing

PUREX

Gen IV Fuel Fabrication

Gen IV Fast Reactors Spent Fuel Pu Uranium MO X + ADS Transmuter?

Repository U and Pu Actinides Fission Products

Once Through Fuel Cycle

LWRs/ALWRs Interim Storage Less U and Pu (More Actinides Fission Products)

Current European/Japanese Fuel Cycle

Repository Trace U and Pu Trace Actinides Less Fission Products

Advanced Proliferation Resistant Fuel Cycle

Conclusions

• • • •

Ever-increasing reliance on foreign energy supply is a real and growing threat to national security The US can be energy independent within 10-15 years and radically reduce greenhouse emissions in the process The solution seems straight forward:

–

Hybrid vehicles that use bio-fuels (ethanol and bio-diesel) for the transportation sector

–

Reliance on new nuclear plants for electric power generation with fuel reprocessing to reduce high level waste by 90% We need to get on with it much more aggressively

–

A major PR campaign will be required The so called hydrogen economy is not a solution

Policy Recommendations

• •

Sustainable Energy Independence is a National Imperative US policy should mandate the following vehicle and fuel requirements:

–

All cars and light trucks sold after 2007 in the US to be flexible fuel capable. No exceptions, no excuses, no postponements

–

Pollution standards and mileage requirements that preclude non commercial vehicles sold after 2010 other than hybrids that use flexible fuel plus batteries (or fuel cells) with all service stations required to pump at least 85% ethanol fuel in addition to petrol.

–

Eliminate corn subsidies and instead provide incentives for production of ethanol and other biofuels with a strategic reserve Mandate a study -- overseen by the National Academies to provide, within one year, a national standard for new generation nuclear fired power plants and fuel reprocessing with training and operation based on the Naval reactor program.

– –

A streamlined siting, construction approval, and regulatory process.

Immediate implementation of fuel reprocessing to reduce high level waste by 90% starting immediately and by 98-99% by 2015

–

Retention of closed military bases adjacent to water for plant siting

Back Up Data

(See Note Pages)

Hybrid Auto Horsepower Calculations

(See Note Pages)

Ethanol Fuel Usage per Auto

(See Note Pages)

Fuel Energy Content and Conversion Energy

(See Note Pages)

Key References

How Ethanol is made – Western Plains Energy LLC http://westernplainsenergy.biz/ethanol.html

Science Daily Article on Patzek/Pimentel New Study http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050329132436.htm

"

The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update

", by Hosein Shapouri and James A. Duffield, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of Energy Policy and New Uses, and Michael Wang of the Center for Transportation Research, Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory. Agricultural Economic Report No. 813: "Corn ethanol is energy efficient...

www.usda.gov/oce/oepnu/aer-814.pdf

Various DOE EIA Reports including the 2005 World Energy Outlook Presentations at the 2 June 2005 NAE Regional Conference at Case Western Reserve on “Energy: A 21st Century Perspective”