Transcript 3D Printing - WordPress.com

The rising digital intensity
of manufacturing
Changing the rules of the game
Irene J. Petrick
Irene J. Petrick, Ph.D.
[email protected]
SIM – DC City Club
May 13, 2014
Abstract
In the past several decades, manufacturers have seen disruptions coming from
competing production technologies and from low cost global competitors. Today and
into the future, the disruptions are coming from sources many don't even see
coming. Specifically, the future manufacturing landscape will be enabled by
developments in information technology. Access to high performance computing at a
cost competitive rate will level the playing field for advanced modeling, analytics and
simulation. When combined with developments in 3d printing/additive manufacturing,
one-off highly customized production will compete with mass production. Current
manufacturers will need to learn how these 3d printing/additive manufacturing
technologies can coexist alongside their more traditional processes. As these tools
become simpler to use, Internet-savvy hobbyists and do-it-yourselfers will effectively
be able to challenge very established firms. Cloud supported services will be a viable
replacement for extensive enterprise resource planning and customer relationship
management systems and will provide the real time visibility into the supply chain and
production environment that customers will demand. And the final IT based enabler
that will democratize manufacturing? Social-media based funding models such as
Kickstarter. In the coming decade the installed base that has been a barrier to entry
for new firms will become a barrier to change for many established manufacturers.
© Irene J. Petrick 2014
SIM
• Assertions
– 3D printing/additive manufacturing is ON THE HORIZON
and will achieve end-part quality in multiple materials in
the coming years
– The roles and rules of traditional supply chains are
becoming obsolete
– Competition will come from unexpected participants
– Economies of scale will go from a barrier to entry to a
barrier to change
• Economies of One will coexist and compete with
Economies of Scale
• Digitally intensive tools will change the face of
manufacturing
© Irene J. Petrick 2014
SIM
IT driven trends in the production
& operational environment
Trend 2: Additive
manufacturing attains
commercial viability
for multiple materials
Trend 3: Cloudbased IT solutions
reduce administrative
overhead for smaller
enterprises and
enable new business
models
Design &
production as
experimentation
Trend 1: Technical
(high performance)
computing
capabilities enable
complex design and
simulation
© Irene J. Petrick 2014
FUTURE
SCENARIO
IT driven design
and production
enables
Economies of
One
The rise of the
“Any Man”
Trend 4: Social
media-based funding
models democratize
production
investments
Trend 5: Internet
savvy do-it-yourself
hobbyists embrace
open source
innovation tools
SIM
“Any sufficiently advanced
technology is indistinguishable from
magic.”
-- Arthur C. Clark
• Where is the magic?
–
–
–
–
© Irene J. Petrick 2014
Design
Production
Post Production
Delivery/distribution
SIM
Simplified ecosystem
Design
Production
Post
Production
Distribution
• Well understood roles & responsibilities
• Reducing complexity is key to competitive
advantage
• Design as a “finished” input to production
© Irene J. Petrick 2014
SIM
Changing nature of design & designers
Scanners, Smartphone Apps
Reverse Engineering
& Modeling
Modeling External and Internal Features
Design
Hobbyists &
Prosumers
Internet Design
Files & Kits
App Designers
Animators
Engineers
Architects
Manufacturers
Design Firms
Design Software
ISVs, Computing
Hardware
Converters & Translators
Physical Digital
3D Printer
Unique Firmware
Printer Manufacturers
Digital Actionable
Standards, File Formats, Instruction Sets,
Design Rules
Imagination Digital
Customization, Solid Models, Surface Models
© Irene J. Petrick 2014
SIM
Changing nature of production & post
production
Polymers, Powders, Binders, Gas
Materials Producers, Auxiliary Suppliers
Experimentation
& Redesign
Collaborative Innovation
Design
Physical Feature Testing
Inventory Sites
Materials Producers,
Printer Makers, Distributors
3D Printer
Unique Hardware
Part Characterization, Material Handling,
Recycling
Net/Near
Net Shape
Parts
Printer Manufacturers
Process Parameter Framework
Toolpath, Process Plan, Machine Parameters,
Support, Orientation, Material Parameters
Post
Post
Production
Production
Fixturing &
Material
Removal
Surface
Finishing
Feature
Enhancements
Heat Treatment
© Irene J. Petrick 2014
SIM
Changing nature of distribution
Printer Hubs
3D
Printer
3D
Printer
Printer as the Ultimate FAX
Machine
3D
Printer
Internet File
Design
Local Manufacturing or
Traditional Shipping
3D Printer
Post
Production
Direct Distribution
Local Manufacturers
UPS, USPS, FedEx
© Irene J. Petrick 2014
SIM
The dynamics of Economies of
One …
• Fewer clear boundaries in the designbuild-deliver paradigm
• Design and production as experimentation
• Modeling & designing-in complexity yields
competitive advantage
• Proximity matters
• From long-term planning to real-time
planning
• IT becomes a critical skillset
© Irene J. Petrick 2014
SIM
The return of the artisan entrepreneur
Local Artisan
& Craftsman
Production
Manufacturing Returns
to the Garage
Mechanization
Urbanization
& Capital
Consolidation
Centralized
Production &
Delivery
Modern Transportation
& Information Systems
Internet-based
Business Processes
& Design with
Virtual
Manufacturing
Production
Centralized
Production with
Distributed Low
Cost Supply
Sourcing &
Distributed Delivery
Mass Customization & “My Way”
Consumer/Customer Demand
Competitive Advantage
through Economies of One
© Irene J. Petrick 2014
Competitive Advantage through
Economies of Scale & Scope
SIM
myFactory
Cubify.com
TheMicro.com – Kickstarter Funded
QUESTION: Who is a
manufacturer? Who
is a designer?
© Irene J. Petrick 2014
SIM
Cloud-based business models
Makerspaces, Job shops
3D printer hubs
Prosumers
Engineers
Architects
Distributed Network of 3D Manufacturers
Virtual Factories
Intermediary
© Irene J. Petrick 2014
SIM
For existing manufacturers …
Great gifts
• Customization is feasible
(Economies of One)
• Production of
replacement parts is
simplified
• Manufacturing is sexy
again
• Entrepreneurs drive
change in unanticipated
ways
© Irene J. Petrick 2014
Serious challenges
• We don’t know how to
design for this technology
• Cloud-based business
models enable artisan
entrepreneurs to compete
• Extensive installed base
is a barrier to change
• Digital intensity increases
the demand for skilled IT
professionals
SIM
The future is here…
© Irene J. Petrick 2014
SIM
Dr. Irene J. Petrick is a Penn State University professor and managing director of the
TrendScape Innovation Group. She is an internationally recognized expert in strategic
roadmapping and has been actively engaged in advanced manufacturing issues. Her
research interests include technology forecasting, collaborative innovation and
business ecosystem development. She is actively engaged with companies in their
innovation and technology strategy activities, including work with twelve Fortune 100
companies, the U.S. military, and a wide variety of small to medium sized enterprises.
She has over 25 years of experience in technology planning, management and
product development in both the academic and industrial settings. She has been
named a Boeing Welliver Fellow, a CSC Faculty Intern in India, and has spent three
summers full time with Intel Corporation focused on innovation strategies (2010-2012).
Irene is author or co-author on more than 150 publications and presentations.
(http://strategic-technology-roadmapping.com/)
© Irene J. Petrick 2014
SIM