Transcript Trucking Trends - Louisville Sustainability Council

Transportation Trends
Money and Tons
• Revenue:
$681.7 billion in gross freight revenues (primary
shipments only) from trucking, representing
81.2% of the nation’s freight bill in 2013.
• Tonnage:
9.7 billion tons of freight (primary shipments
only) transported by trucks in 2013, representing
69.1% of total domestic tonnage shipped.
Taxes-Our Fair Share
Taxes:
 $37.8 billion paid by commercial trucks in federal and state
highway-user taxes in 2012.
 Commercial trucks make up 12.8% of all registered vehicles,
and paid $17.6 billion in federal highway-user taxes and $20.3
billion in state highway-user taxes, in 2012.
 Combined Local, State and Federal Gas Tax in KY 50.90 ranks
13th in the U.S.
 Kentucky ranks 3rd nationally in highway user fees.
 Trucking Registration equal 65% of total registration fees in KY
 46% of State and Federal Highways fees come from trucking
Transportation Funding
• Map 21-Kicking The Can Down The Road
• Trucking Pays Its Fair Share
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IRP, IFTA, KYU, KIT, UCR
KY Ranks 3rd in Highway User Fees
43%-49% of Total Highway User Fees
77% of Registration Fees
Only 14% of Miles Traveled
• Future Funding Mechanism
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Fuel Tax
VMT
Tolling
Indexing
Registration
Miles & Miles & More Miles
Mileage:
 421.3 billion miles logged by all trucks used for
business purposes (excluding government and farm)
in 2012.
 30.6% of all miles traveled by trucks.
 14.2% of all motor vehicle miles traveled.
 152.4 billion miles logged by all Class 6 - 8 trucks used
for business purposes (excluding government and
farm) in 2012.
Big Time Fuel Users
Fuel Consumption:
52.7 billion gallons of fuel
consumed by those trucks
used for business purposes in
2013.
37.7 billion gallons of diesel
fuel.
15.1 billion gallons of gasoline
Reducing Trailer Resistance
Reducing Tire Resistance
There Are A Bunch Of Trucks
• Number of Trucks:
 32.1 million trucks registered and used for business
purposes (excluding government and farm) in 2012,
representing 24.4% of all trucks registered.
 2.3 million Class 8 trucks used for business purposes
(excluding government and farm) in 2012.
 11.7 million commercial trailers registered in 2012.
 20,000 + IRP vehicles in Kentucky
Diesel Price “Spiking” Intensifying!
The number of times the week-toweek change in the national retail
diesel price exceeded 5 cents (up or
down)
• 1990s: once in 302 weeks
(0.3%)
• 2000s: 95 times in 521 weeks
(18.2%)
• 2010s: 42 times in 186 weeks
(22.5%)
Trucking Companies
Number of Companies:
According to the U.S. Department of
Transportation, as of September 2013,
For-hire carriers 465,697,
Private carriers totaled 725,179
Interstate motor carriers totaled 164,723.
90.1% operate 6 or fewer trucks.
97.1% operate fewer than 20 trucks.
Transportation Jobs
• Employment:
7 million people employed throughout the
economy in jobs that relate to trucking activity in
2012, excluding self-employed.
 3.2 million truck drivers employed in 2012.
107,000 people employed in trucking-KY
Represents 7% of the workforce in KY
Average annual trucking wages $42,000 and
rising
What Factors Will Impact
Transportation Mode of the Future?
Factors
• Normal market conditionsservice, reliability, pricing,
competitor missteps
• Industry investment in
equipment, infrastructure,
technology
• Government investments
• Government regulations
• Shifts in population
• Shifts in oil and gas production
• Panama Canal expansion 25%
diversion of freight west to east
Panama Canal Expansion
How Does Freight Move In Kentucky?
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Total Freight Tonnage 169,456,120
Inbound Freight 45% Outbound Freight 55%
Trucking 76.53%
Rail 10.29%
Waterways 10.78%
Intermodal .88%
Air 1.52%
National Highway System 2035
89% of cost concentrated on 12%
of Interstate miles
Cost of Congestion
Los Angeles metro worst with
$1.1B in costs
Freight Performance Measures
2013 Top Ten Bottlenecks
Average
Speed
2011
Rank
Change
1 Chicago, IL: I-290 at I-90/I-94
30.13
1
0
2 Houston, TX: I-610 at US 290
41.99
14
+12
3 Austin, TX: I-35
35.79
4
+1
4 Fort Lee, NJ: I-95 at SR-4
28.98
2
-2
5 St. Louis, MO: I-70 at I-64 West
41.62
11
+6
6 Louisville, KY: I-65 at I-64/I-71
44.93
3
-3
7 Houston, TX I-45 at US-59
38.55
17
+10
8 Cincinnati, OH: I-71 at I-75
48.12
9
+1
9 Houston, TX: I-10 at I-45
45.63
15
+6
42.44
7
-3
Rank
Location
10 Dallas, TX: I-45 at I-30
Cost of Congestion
• 2013 cost of $9.2 billion
• 141 million lost hours of productivity
– Translates to over 51,000 drivers sitting idle for a working
year
• Overall average of $864 per registered large truck
(GVWR 10k+ lbs.)
CA and TX each had over
$1B in costs
Maine had lowest cost
($5.1M)
Louisville
2,000 Truck Sample
Same 2,000 Trucks After 24 Hours
Same 2,000 Trucks After 72 Hours
Same 2,000 Trucks After 5 Days
Same 2,000 Trucks After 7 Days
Trucking Trends
• Trucks will continue to dominate the
transportation of general commodities
• Anticipate truckload carriers will boost their use
of railroads
• For Hire Carrier tonnage will increase annually by
3.3%
• LTL average annual growth expected to be around
3.5% for the next 5 years.
• Private carrier volume is slated to expand 2.8%
per year for the next 5 years.
Rail Intermodal
• Rail intermodal tonnage is
forecast to expand 6.5% per
year on average from 2010 to
2015.
• Longer term, growth is
pegged at 5.2% per year
through 2021.
• Rail intermodal revenue rises
from an estimated $9.4 billion
in 2009 to $15.6 billion in 2015
and $23.6 billion by 2021.
• This translates into average
annual growth of 11.1% during
2010-2015 and 8.6% per year
on average through 2021.
Rail Freight Trends
• Overall rail share of total tonnage is pegged at
15.2% (carload plus intermodal)
• Rail carload traffic is set to grow 1.5% the next
5 years.
• Rail intermodal is forecasted to expand 6.2%
per year for the next 5 years.
Future Challenges
• Transportation Funding
• Regulatory
• Workforce
Regulatory-What Does It Mean?
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Small Guy Will Struggle
Workforce Will See Attrition
Increased Costs
Safer Highways
Length of Haul Will Reduce
Potential Need For More Capacity
Market Historically Has Adjusted
Safe and Efficient Transportation Act
97,000 Pound Trucks?
• States Will Still Control
• 44 States Already
Allow Heavier Trucks
• Highway Stress
• Safety Concerns
• 60 foot 6 inch
Walmart Super-Cube Rig
In Cab Communications
Vehicle to Vehicle & Vehicle to Infrastructure
• Collison Avoidance
Technology
• Platooning
• Self Driving Vehicles
• Hot Spots
• E-Screening
Future Workforce?
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Truck Drivers Are Getting Older
Transitioning To A Less Experienced Work Force
Regulations Will Create Attrition
Strong Economy Other Opportunities
More Immigrants
Qualified Drivers Tough To Find
Pay Increases May Not Be Enough
Driver Entry Age 23 or Older
Technology
• Rapidly Improving
– In Cab Communication
– Communication With Enforcement
– Anti Crash/Anti Rollover
– Real Time Communication With Home Terminal
– Real Time Training
– Real Time Billing
Contact Information
Jamie Fiepke
KMTA President/CEO
502-227-0848
[email protected]
Trucks Use a Lot of Fuel
• In 2013, trucking consumed 52.7
billion gallons of fuel
– 37.7 billion gallons of diesel (72%)
– 15.1 billion gallons of gasoline
(28%)
Large On-Highway Diesel Fuel Bill
• Annual diesel costs were $87 billion (2009);
$109 billion
• (2010); $143 billion (2011); $156 billion
(2012); $149.5 (2013)
• 1¢ diesel increase = $350 - $375 million in
added fuel costs to industry
Natural Gas
Is Natural Gas a Viable Fuel Option for
Trucking?
Outlook Remains Positive
Top 10 Reasons Natural Gas Looks
Promising for Trucking
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Roughly $1.00 (LNG) - $1.50 (CNG) cheaper per DGE
Domestically-produced
Vast supplies readily available
Future cost projections remain low
Fuel surcharges roller-coaster
Manufacturers have/will have product lines
Fleet requests for natural gas trucks is on the rise
Infrastructure build-out continues
OEM competition will decrease equipment costs and
fleet competition will increase market penetration of
equipment
Lower emissions
Natural Gas Use in Transportation is
Not a New Concept
First U.S. Well Dug in 1821
William Hart dug the first well
specifically to produce natural gas
in the U.S. in the Village of
Fredonia on the banks of
Canadaway Creek in Chautauqua
County, NY. It was 27 feet deep,
excavated with shovels by hand,
and its gas pipeline was hollowedout logs sealed with tar and rags.
The 1920’s “Cutting Edge” Car
Further Advances in the 1930’s
1980’s Chinese Natural Gas
Vehicles
To the Present …
Issues for States
• Fracking bans
• Vehicle weight exemptions
• State tax incentives and grants
• Truck safety concerns
• Road degradation
• Taxation of natural gas
• Note: fracking-associated hauls provide significant economic
boon for tank truck industry (≈2000 hauls per fracked well)