Transcript Nelson et al., Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.

Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP,
Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah
with support from
National Center for Transportation &
Communities
Reno, NV December 6, 2013
Residential values with respect to light
rail station distance  TRAX case
study
 Job and population change with respect
to street car distance  Portland
streetcar case study
 Bus Rapid Transit and employment
growth  Land County, Oregon Case
Study
 Forthcoming BRT research
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NAICS
Code
22
23
31-33
42
44-45
48-49
51
52
53
54
55
56
61
62
71
72
81
92
NAICS Sector
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale
Retail
Transportation
Information
Finance
Real Estate
Professional
Management
Administrative
Education
Health Care
Arts, Ent., Rec.
Lodging, Food
Other Services
Public Admin
Total
Jobs Within Jobs Within
0.25 Mile
0.25 Mile
of EmX
of EmX
Station,
Station,
2004
2010
475
513
643
520
813
465
427
269
1,769
1,844
484
517
1,133
1,557
1,285
1,447
442
488
2,366
2,221
291
633
1,320
2,042
1,015
1,249
7,751
9,095
826
707
2,615
2,919
621
717
3,461
3,379
27,737
30,582
Change
in Jobs,
2004-2010
8%
-19%
-43%
-37%
4%
7%
37%
13%
10%
-6%
118%
55%
23%
17%
-14%
12%
15%
-2%
10%
Jobs
Between
0.25 and
0.50 Mile
of EmX
Station,
2004
91
400
293
584
1,039
52
450
422
177
861
98
1,514
258
920
43
1,113
269
488
9,072
Jobs
Between
0.25 and
0.50 Mile
of EmX
Station,
2010
136
314
174
499
1,073
135
389
524
182
811
75
1,031
303
1,395
99
1,099
294
552
9,085
Change
in Jobs,
2004-2010
49%
-22%
-41%
-15%
3%
160%
-14%
24%
3%
-6%
-23%
-32%
17%
52%
130%
-1%
9%
13%
0%
Source: Nelson et al., Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.
Jobs
Balance
of Metro
Area,
2004
151
5,696
18,690
5,313
14,551
2,608
1,550
2,105
1,947
2,751
1,631
5,456
13,983
9,363
1,421
7,445
4,009
1,361
100,031
Jobs
Balance
of Metro
Area,
2010
183
4,696
11,685
4,742
14,021
2,260
1,360
1,766
1,516
2,597
1,733
4,441
15,800
12,102
1,526
8,341
3,926
2,084
94,779
Change
in Jobs,
2004-2010
21%
-18%
-37%
-11%
-4%
-13%
-12%
-16%
-22%
-6%
6%
-19%
13%
29%
7%
12%
-2%
53%
-5%
BRT outcomes so soon are a surprise (for me).
Success attributable to “planning for success”
by locating stations at current/planned
high-demand locations.
It is one design among many flavors  will
results hold up under different designs?
Will lagging sectors rebound at BR stations?
Will results hold for ½ mile rail-transit areas?
Are there any induced jobs or just resorting?
Will people also follow BRT or is it just jobs?
More research needed but outcomes appear
promising.
Arthur C. Nelson et al. (2013), Bus Rapid
Transit and Economic Development:
Case Study of the Eugene-Springfield BRT
System. Journal of Public Transportation,
Vol. 16, No. 3: 41-57
To be presented to Transportation Research
Board, 2014
Arthur C. Nelson et al. targeted for Journal
of Public Transportation.
In theory higher density housing should be
more valuable the closer it is to transit
stations.
Only one study evaluates price differences
per square foot in apartment values
within ½ mile of heavy-rail stations
compared to farther away.
No study evaluates the value gradient with
respect to transit station distance.
17 municipalities; 6
unincorporated
communities
Population: 1.03
million (2010
Census)
4 Light Rail Lines
41 Stations
35 miles of track
Image: saltlakebusads.com
•Income
•Household Size
•Race/Ethnicity
Distance to TRAX
•CBD
•Freeway Exit
•Schools
•Shopping
Neighborhood Attributes
Location Attributes
Structural Characteristics
Value per square foot of Rental Space
•Bldg. Area
•Units
•Property Tax
Rate
•Nearest station
in ¼ mile
bands to 1-1/2
mile
Up to ¼
mile
7.276*
¼ to ½
mile
Mean value: $87/ft2
3.628*
½ to ¾ mile 4.739*
¾ to 1
mile
3.621*
1 to 1¼
mile
3.647*
1¼ to 1½
mile
*Significant p-value
1.678
Over 1½
mile
reference
Presented to Transportation Research
Board, 2013.
Susan J. Petheram, Arthur C. Nelson, et al.
(2013). Using the Real Estate Market to
Establish Light Rail Station Catchment
Areas: Case Study of Attached
Residential Property Values in Salt Lake
County with respect to Light Rail Station
Distance. Transportation Research
Record
LINEAR MODEL
within .25 mile of LR
.25 to .5 mile to LR
.5 to .75 mile to LR
.75 to 1 mile to LR
1 to 1.25 mile to LR
Model R Squared:
Attached SF
B
Sig.
20.62888
0.000
12.80735
0.001
7.71434
0.001
9.86059
0.000
1.08688
0.590
0.563
To be presented to Transportation Research
Board, 2014
Susan J. Petheram, Arthur C. Nelson, et al.,
targeted to Transportation Research A.
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Ranked #1 for funding by NITC
National study of all 19 BRT systems in place in 2011.
Quasi-experimental compare-and-contrast research design to
compare jobs, population and households, and housing units
before and after BRT implementation relative to a control
corridor and within the metropolitan context.
Spatial regression analysis to evaluate the relationship between
BRT and employment controlling for socioeconomic, location
and other factors.
Hedonic analysis to compare market differences in terms of
nonresidential and apartment residential rents and vacancy
rates with respect to BRT station proximity, and whether there
are variations with respect to BRT flavor.
Jobs-housing balance analysis will tie together the residential
and non-residential analyses.
2010 census blocks within one-eighth mile buffers, out to two
miles.
Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics, CoStar data