Transcript Document

Debating Effective Solution for
Water Constrained Future of
Pakistan
Dr. Zaigham Habib
Water Debate
1.Pakistan in Global Context
2.Natural Water Scenario
3.Understanding Future Constraints
4.Some of the Solutions
Need for a Debate
Debate, dialogue and consultation - different
communication processes
Debate (argue, question, disagree, learn) –
scientific & issue specific, leads to opinion
formation & selection of solutions
Dialogue (discourse, convey) – bringing close
diverse interests and stakeholders
Consultation (discuss, exchange ideas, get 2nd
opinion) - a tool to refine solutions
Lack of Debates in water Sector
Argue, question, disagree  formulate solutions and options
1. Diverse technical opinions are least discussed
– leading to limited solutions and narrow
perceptions
2. Scientific options not taken neutrally
3. Too much consumed by the fear of talking
about “bad solutions/ options”
4. A dilemma of not accepting scientific diversity
Fresh Water – Global Picture
Where is this 0.5 % of fresh water?
10^6 km3 stored in aquifers.
11.9 103 km3 net rainfall falling after accounting for evaporation.
• 91*103 km3 in natural lakes
• 5 103 km3 in man made storage -7 fold increase since 1950.
• 2,120 km3 in rivers – constantly replaced from rainfall and melting snow
and ice.
m3/ person / year 2000
0
Maldives
Singapore
Bahrain
Israel
Oman
Burundi
Antigua and
South Africa
Burkina Faso
Ethiopia
Pakistan
Czech Republic
India
China
Germany
Togo
Niger
United Kingdom
Ukraine
France
Iraq
Cuba
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Sudan
Chad
Philippines
Portugal
Switzerland
Botswana
Kyrgyz Republic
United States of
Ireland
Turkmenistan
Honduras
Georgia
Estonia
Guinea-Bissau
Serbia and
Latvia
Brunei
Sierra Leone
Cambodia
Uruguay
Panama
Equatorial Guinea
Chile
Peru
Canada
Physical water scarcity -Per Capita Gross Renewable water 2000
20000
16000
12000
8000
4000
0
Uganda
Rwanda
Angola
Mozambique
Cape Verde
Kenya
Cameroon
Eritrea
Malawi
Fiji
Latvia
Honduras
Tanzania
Jamaica
Guatemala
Mongolia
El Salvador
Slovakia
Equatorial Guinea
Nicaragua
Panama
Ireland
Sweden
Israel
Brazil
Philippines
Qatar
Lebanon
Morocco
China
Laos
New Zealand
Turkey
France
India
Myanmar
Belgium
Cuba
Argentina
Greece
Georgia
Bulgaria
Lithuania
Sudan
Pakistan
Macedonia
Thailand
United States of
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
m3/ person /year
A water based Economy --Per Capita Withdrawal
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Irrigation per Hectare close to World Average
Physical and economic water scarcity
Per capita
Eastern rivers
Groundwater catchments
Some Facts
Area: 803,940 km2
Population: 160 million
Climate: Arid; variable
rainfall, river inflows &
groundwater quality
Gross Available Water
Rainfall
= Avg. 45 MAF (30 to 90 MAF)
Rivers Inflow = 135 MAF (average 1978 – 2006)
Groundwater = 50 to 60 MAF
Monthly Inflow of high and low flow years
Tarbella
1959-60
1974-75
1973-74
2001-02
14
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
0
MAY
7
APR
Monthly Inflow (maf)
21
Decrease of Eastern Inflow from India –
as a result of Indus Water Treaty
Eastern Rivers Ravi and Sutlej component at Balloki and
Sulamanki
42
Ravi + Sutlej
Expon. (Ravi
+
2
Sutlej) R = 0.56
28
21
14
7
2003-04
2001-02
1999-00
1997-98
1995-96
1993-94
1991-92
1989-90
1987-88
1985-86
1983-84
1981-82
1979-80
1977-78
1975-76
1973-74
1971-72
1969-70
1967-68
1965-66
1963-64
0
1961-62
Annual flows in maf
35
Indus Rivers Annual Outflow versus Inflow 1976 - 2006
100
90
1976-86
Outflow below kotri - MAF
80
1986-96
1996-2006
70
R2 = 0.86
60
50
40
30
2
R = 0.72
20
R2 = 0.94
10
0
90
100
110
120
130
Inflow in MAF
140
150
160
170
180
190
2004
2001
1998
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
2007
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
Thousands
400
1950
600
Million acre feet (MAF)
No of wells
Tubewell Growth in Pakistan Since 1950
800
Total reported
Tubewells
200
0
Estimated Groundwater Extraction
60
30
0
Changed Ecology along the Rivers
The riverine natural vegetation and non-irrigated
agriculture is replaced by the well irrigation.
The flood based forest have severely damaged
during recent drought years
Computed net Losses rivers and link canals as a
function of Gross Inflow
2
of Inflow + rain
River Losses as a function
0
R = 0.75
-25
-50
120
170
220
270
Gross Annual Inflow (Riv er+rain)
'selected y ears 1974 to 1997
320
Losses 1998-2000
370
Increased uses
from rivers and
decreased
drainage inflow
can cause
local floods
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
Depth to water table (cm)
Average Groundwater Levels Punjab
350
Groundwater Aquifer
Many issues
Actual potential
400
Limited monitoring grid
Sustainability of use
patterns
450
High value for farmers
500
Control mechanism
350
M A ILSI
450
550
650
L-DEPALPUR
J-00
J-98
J-96
J-94
J-92
J-90
J-88
J-86
J-84
J-82
J-80
J-78
From the ground in cm
Average aquife r depth - pre monsoon
Demand in 2025 crossing total availability
Water Constrained Future
1. Permanent Physical Scarcity - population
2. Most of the water has already been utilized
3. Natural water cushions depleting
4. Water based economy – high manpower, low
productivity
5. Hydropower, a most efficient user dependent on
surface storages
6. New water use sectors are emerging
7. Skewed spatio-temporal water availability and
potential
8. Climate Changes
Towards Solutions
Meeting demands of Socio economic and
environment sectors
Solution in hand - surface storage
• Good Scope for hydropower
• Limited water for agriculture from storage
• Domestic & infrastructure big claimers in future
• Environmental needs – an essential area to be
considered
Expanding Management Approaches
Conventional
Linear cause-effect solutions
Scope limited, problems deep-rooted
Replicability assuming neutral Context
(conservation & drainage technologies, farm practices, crops selection etc.)
Complex drivers of change and management
Comprehensive adaptive
Manage the Cause as well
Protect resource base and long term resilience
Effective demand management
Diversification of water-intensive production
Protect Natural Water Cycle and Resource
Base – in quantity
Trans-boundary waters - expanding strategy
Sacrosanct Indus Water Treaty cannot stop India from
planning 11 projects on western rivers;
– Establish need of western flood water in Pakistan
– Let people talk about negative impacts of IWT on Pakistan
side
Natural Water cycle must be maintained for resilience
Protect all water bodies; rivers, lakes and flood plains
Groundwater aquifer – artificial recharge in fresh zone
minimize/drain effluent in saline area
Quality Management and control
Many Grey Areas
Industrial and urban effluents to rivers and lakes –
treat at source, reuse
 waste water treatment – set examples
Drainage management – lessons learned?
Drainage functions of rivers and main canals
Groundwater quality – exact issue ?
Leaching of agri lands
Excess water used in saline areas
Productivity of water in Agriculture
• Conservation - canal lining big initiative, 50% complete
• Field level water efficient technologies new initiative
• Value addition increasing trends
• Talking about “green to gene revolution”
Yet,
• The yield of major crops stagnant
• Uncertainty for farmers has increased
• Public sector investments increasing and essential
Food security & Agriculture
 National policy about produce, market and trade
 Food security important because of declining
production of wheat in USA & Australia,
 Within Pakistan traditional grain areas are
shifting towards oil seeds, vegetables, fruits &
maize
 A link between livelihood oriented small marginal
farming and food grain production consistent
 Potential of rain-fed and saline areas
Average Crop Yields in Pakistan and other Countries tons/hectare 2005
wheat
Rice
Cotton
sugarcane
Maize
World
2.91
4.0
1.95
65.6
4.75
Punjab India
4.39
3.40
0.31
60.96
2.49
India average
2.67
3.0
0.8
69.95
1.9
China
4.23
6.27
3.38
66.01
5.1
Egypt
6.01
9.5
2.6
61.95
8.0
Pakistan
2.59
2
2.3
48.91
2.85
PAT & Desert
Begari
Ghotki
North West
Rice canal
Dadu
Khairpur West
Khairpur East
Rohri
Nara
Kalri
Lined Canal
Fulili
Pinyari
U.C.C
M-R-LINK
C.B.D.C.
DPR UP
DPR LOW
L.C.C East
L.C.C West
LCC
U.J.C
L.J.C
Thal
L.B.D.C
Haveli Sidhnai
Mailsi
Pakpatan
Fordwah
Eastern Sadiqia
Qaim
Abbasia
Bahawal
Panjnad
D.G.Khan
Muzzafargar
Rangpur
Production / ha (US$)
GVP/CCA
GVP /CCA
500
400
300
200
100
0
Pinyari
Lined Canal
Fulili
Kalri
Nara
Rohri
Khairpur East
Khairpur West
Dadu
Rice canal
North West
Ghotki
Begari
PAT & Desert
Rangpur
Muzzafargar
D.G.Khan
Panjnad
Bahawal
Qaim
Abbasia
Fordwah
Eastern Sadiqia
Pakpatan
Mailsi
Haveli Sidhnai
L.B.D.C
Thal
U.J.C
L.J.C
L.C.C West
LCC
L.C.C East
DPR LOW
DPR UP
C.B.D.C.
M-R-LINK
U.C.C
Water depth for CCA (mm)
Canal Supplies in mm
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
0
PAT &
Begari
Ghotki
North West
Rice canal
Dadu
Khairpur
Khairpur
Rohri
Nara
Kalri
Lined Canal
Fulili
Pinyari
U.C.C
M-R-LINK
C.B.D.C.
DPR UP
DPR LOW
L.C.C East
L.C.C West
LCC
U.J.C
L.J.C
Thal
L.B.D.C
Haveli
Mailsi
Pakpatan
Fordwah
Eastern
Qaim
Abbasia
Bahawal
Panjnad
D.G.Khan
Muzzafargar
Rangpur
Actual Et in mm
Evapotranspiration from Gross Command area
1600
1200
800
400
Gross Value of Production- Rabi 1994-95
GVP- PAK Rs/ha
21000
14000
Average = 6053 Rs/ha
7000
0
1
34 67 100 133 166 199 232 265 298 331 364 397 430 463 496 529
Farm numbers
Meeting Agriculture Targets
• Economically feasible agriculture model for
small farms (inputs, technologies, markets)
• Protect high efficiency groundwater -recharge
• Crop zoning
• Low water use and salinity tolerant crops
• Livestock sub-sector
• New opportunities for rural labor force shifting
from farming; agro-based industry, local
business
Domestic, infrastructure supplies
A big future Challenge
Safe drinking water promised to all
Municipal supplies to big cities, semiurban and advance rural areas
New infrastructure and down
developments
Scenario Potable I: Only drinking water requirements
Potable-I Min.
million gallons per day
750
Potable-I Max.
650
550
Urban = 2.5 gallon/cap/day
rural = 2.0
450
350
1.5 gallon/c/d
250
150
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Million gallons per day
14000
Sanitation scenarios based on minimum survival
level and high water demand assumptions
12000
Sanitation min. requirements
Sanitation high requirement
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Domestic requirements based on current municipal supply
and urbanization trends
24
Gross annual bcm
Rural BCM
Urban BCMs
18
12
6
0
1998
2003
2008
2013
2018
2023
2028
2030
2040
2050
From where this water will come?
1. Main storages – needs for allocation,
transfer from agriculture
 From Existing canal system – some
allocations in saline areas, more will be
required for new projects
 Local surface resources: small rivers,
lakes – replacement or protection
 Groundwater – largest access, quality
and quantity threatened
Approach for domestic supply
management
• Protect quality of all water resources
• Priority to local resources
• Allocate and account all uses
Demand side measures can not be postponed
• Capacity of household appliances
• Rain harvesting wherever possible
• Control on infrastructure, commercial uses
• Household waste management
• Pricing
Regional Context
NWFP: high allocations after seventies, natural
drainage collapsing, pollution of water bodies, local
water access.
Lower Indus: Saline, waterlogged, low rainfall,
riverine cultivation not sustainable, shift towards
perennial crops, livelihood dependence on wetlands,
lakes & unallocated resources high, demand for delta
Punjab: water shortage in cash crop areas,
cultivation extending outside canal irrigated area,
groundwater depleting, recharge sources decreasing,
rivers pollution and dry conditions.
Balochistan: groundwater fast depleting, local
harvesting not reliable, domestic and sanitation
Sustainable Future
• Protectionist approach (how, where, why ???)
• Actions at regional, local and users levels
(water-wise societies, incentives, capacities and
regulation)
• National capacity to define issues and select
sustainable solutions (drivers of management)
• Knowledge to integrate empirical trends and
scientific models (who needs it? Public sector,
users, donors?)
Thank You