NYMA March 1 2006

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Transcript NYMA March 1 2006

Terrorism in the
21st Century:
An Introduction
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
DoD Disclaimer
Notes:
- The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not purport to
reflect the position of the United States Military Academy, the Department of
the Army, or the Department of Defense.
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Understanding the Strategy
• NATO definition of terrorism:
The unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence
against individuals or property in an attempt to coerce or
intimidate governments or societies to achieve political,
religious or ideological objectives
• Sun Tzu
– Know yourself
– Know your allies
– Know your enemy
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Sun Tzu: Know Your Enemy
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What motivates terrorists?
How does someone become a suicide bomber?
What do these people want?
What are they capable of?
How do they view this struggle?
“You have to be lucky everyday – We only have to be lucky once”
- IRA Bomber
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Key Terms
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Vision
Power
Belief
Strategy
Tactic
Duty
Shame
Freedom fighter
Self-sacrifice
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
AB95-5.PPT
// ##
Key Terms
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Vision – “Shape the future”
Power to achieve the vision
Belief in a higher cause
Strategy – to compel, coerce, etc.
Tactic – bombing, assassination, etc.
Duty to the cause, to family, to God
Shame upon you for not doing seeking justice
Freedom fighter – must kill to secure freedom (?)
Self-sacrifice – to be killed in the service of a higher cause
is “heroic”
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
AB95-5.PPT
// ##
Defining Terrorism
Primary Types
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Left-wing
Right-wing
Ethno-nationalist (separatist)
Religious
State
State-Sponsored
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
AB95-5.PPT
// ##
Left-wing Terrorists
• Driven by liberal or idealist political concepts
• Prefer revolutionary anti-authoritarian antimaterialist agendas
• Typically target elites that symbolize authority
• Examples:
– Anarchists, Earth First, Animal Liberation Front
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Right-wing Terrorists
• Often target race and ethnicity
• Examples:
– Aryan Brotherhood, the Order, White Aryan Nation
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Ethno-nationalist/Separatists
• Usually have clear territorial objectives
– Liberation/separation
– Popular support usually along ethnic/racial lines.
• Examples:
– Tamil Tigers, Chechens, ETA, IRA, PKK
Religious terrorists
• Belief in a struggle of good vs evil
– Acting along desires of a diety – target is thus not
necessarily human
– Feel unconstrained by law – higher calling
– Complete alienation from existing socio/political order
– Support may be diffuse
• Examples:
– al Qaeda, Hizballah, Hamas, Jemaah Islamiyah,
Christian Militia, Aum Shinrikyo, Al Aqsa Martyrs
Brigade, Amal, Lehi, Irgun
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
State Terrorism
• Governments can engage in acts of
terrorism
• Examples:
– Iraq, Saddam Hussein deployed chemical
weapons in Kurdish villages, killing thousands
– Intent was to frighten other villages into
stopping their political revolt
– It worked
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
State-Sponsored Terrorism
• Governments can also support terrorist
groups that do their bidding
• Examples:
– Iran, which supports Hizballah
– Before 9/11, Hizballah had killed more
Americans than any other terror group
– Embassy bombings, kidnappings, targeted
assassinations, suicide attack on Marine
barracks at Beirut airport
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Marine Barracks Beirut, Lebanon
23 October 1983
• 241 Dead
• 105 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
A Brief History of Modern Terrorism
• Roughly 130-year history
• 4 Waves, each roughly 40-45 years
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Anarchist Wave
Anti-Colonial/Decolonization Wave
New Left Wave/Leftist anti-Western sentiment
Religious Inspiration Wave
• Issue to consider for each wave:
– Doctrines of terror
– Technology (especially for communication/propoganda)
– Avenues of funding and support
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Terrorism as Strategy
• Terrorism as means to achieve goals and objectives
• Strategic goals include:
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Political change (e.g., overthrow govt., drive out occupiers, etc.)
Social change (e.g., France headscarf ban)
Economic change (e.g., stop resource export)
Religious change (e.g., fundamentalism)
• Overall goal: create a “better” world
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Some Strategic Objectives of Terrorism
• Recognition: Gaining national or international recognition for their
cause; recruiting new personnel; raising funds; demonstrating their
strength
• Coercion: Force a desired behavior of an individual or government
• Intimidation: Prevent individuals, groups, or governments from acting
• Provocation: Provoking overreaction by a government to the attack on
symbolic targets or personnel, thereby gaining sympathy for their
cause.
• Insurgency support: Forcing the government to overextend itself in
dealing with the threat, thereby allowing the insurgency to gain support
and commit further attacks against the government.
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
New York, World Trade Center
February 26, 1993
6 Dead, 1,042 Injured
Oklahoma City
Murrah Federal Building,
19 April 1995
168 Dead, 490 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Aum Shinrikyo and the Sarin Gas Attacks
Japan, 1994 & 1995
Matsumoto, Japan
March, 1994
7 Dead, 34 Injured
Tokyo, Japan
Teito Rapid Transit Authority (Subway System)
March 20, 1995
12 Dead, 5,000 Injured
Sarin gas kills by paralyzing muscles so that a person cannot breathe.
Sarin enters the body by inhalation, ingestion, and through the eyes and skin.
Symptoms begin with watery eyes, drooling, and excessive sweating, and then
rapidly progress to difficulty in breathing, dimness of vision, nausea, vomiting,
twitching, and headache.
Ultimately the victim will become comatose and suffocate as a consequence of
convulsive spasms.
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Khobar Towers - Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
25 June 1996
• 19 Dead
• 240 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
American Embassy Bombings, Kenya and Tanzania
August 1998
200 Americans, Kenyans, and Tanzanians dead
Over 5,000 injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
1999 LAX Attack Plan
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
The Strategy of Terrorism
• Increasing interest in “soft targets” (economically strategic
impact, and less protected) such as:
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pubs in Northern Ireland & London UK
open markets & cafes in Israel
international airport, Sri Lanka
bus in Manila, the Philippines
shopping mall in southern Philippines
nightclub in Bali, Indonesia
banks in Istanbul, Turkey
hotel in Jakarta, Indonesia
nightclub in Berlin, Germany
– and, of course . . .
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
New York City
& Washington, DC
September 11, 2001
2,973 Dead, and 10,000+ Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Modern Trends in Global Terrorism
• More violent attacks (increasing lethality)
• Increasing use of suicide bombers
(the ultimate smart bomb)
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Karachi, Pakistan
May 8, 2002
Bus attack
14 Dead, including
11 French engineers
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
June 14, 2002
Attack on U.S. Consulate
12 Dead
50 Injured
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Bali, Indonesia
October 12, 2002
202 Dead
350 Injured
Citizens from 21 countries, mostly Western tourists, were killed in the blasts
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Casablanca, Morocco
May 17, 2003
44 Dead
107 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Jakarta, Indonesia
August 5, 2003
12 Dead
60 Injured
J.W. Marriott Hotel, Jakarta
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
November 8, 2003
3 simultaneous suicide car bomb
attacks on Al-Muhaya apartment
complex
April 21, 2004
Attack on Security
Services Headquarters
4 Dead
148 Injured
17 Dead
122 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Istanbul, Turkey
November 20, 2003
27 Dead
400 Injured
Primary Targets: British consulate and the HSBC bank headquarters
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Madrid, Spain
March 11, 2004
191 Dead
1,035 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Jakarta, Indonesia
September 9, 2004
9 Dead
173 Injured
Australian Embassy was primary target
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
London, UK
July 7, 2005
54 Dead
716 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Strategy and Recruitment
• Terrorism is an individual’s strategic choice most
often driven by a combination of:
– Intense grievances
– Sense of crisis
– Address a power imbalance - empower the
disenfranchised
• The ties that bind: training camps, extended
family, social networks; trusted networks = key
• Combination of ideology and psychology
• No constraints re: geography, organizational
affiliation, etc.
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Modern Terrorism and Recruitment
• Overall goal: create a “better” world
– Powerful message for recruitment . . .
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Video 1
Video 2
Video 3
Video 4
Video 5
Jihad
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Strategy and Training
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Strategy and Training
Establish training camps – developing the will to kill and the skill to kill
• Operational space: Geographic isolation
• Teachers: Experts in relevant knowledge, e.g., military combat experience
• Committed learners
• Time, money, and basic necessities
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Afghanistan
Algeria
Bosnia
Chechnya
Colombia
Egypt
Indonesia
Japan
Kashmir
Lebanon
Libya
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
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Northern Ireland
Peru
The Philippines
Somalia
Spain
Sri Lanka
Sudan
Syria
Turkey
United States
Uzbekistan
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Strategy and Training
• Psychological dimensions
• Moral disengagement
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Displacement of responsibility
Disregard for/distortion of consequences
Dehumanization
Moral justification
• Group power over behavior, personal decisions
• Preparation for martyrdom
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Suicide Terrorism as Logical Strategy
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Definition of Suicide Terrorism
Intentionally killing oneself for the
purpose of killing others, in the service
of a political or ideological goal
To be distinguished from:
• High-risk missions w/out suicide as main intent
• Fooled couriers
• Suicide – without homicide – for a political cause
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Suicide Terrorism: Who?
Perception:
Reality
• Generalized profile of suicide
terrorists, including:
• The “profile” is wrong
• Suicide terrorists are:
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Young
Single
Male
Uneducated
Religious fanatics
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
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Preteen - mid-sixties
Both single and married with families
Both male and female
Both educated and uneducated
Not motivated by religious fanaticism
World’s leader in suicide terror are
Hindu; Tamil Tigers who are
conducting insurgency against Sri
Lanka
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Trends: Most deadly form of terrorism (so far)
• Israel: 0.5% of attacks, 56% of fatalities.
• U.S.: 9/11 – 10 times more deadly than any previous
terrorist attack in history.
– Hizballah, Lebanon
• 1981 attack on the Iraqi Embassy in Beirut
• 1983 – attack on the U.S. Embassy in Beirut
• 1983 – attack on the Marines sleeping in barracks at the
Beirut airport (241 killed)
• Also, suicide attacks typically get more media coverage;
more “strategic communications” effect
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Trends: 1980s
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
- Lebanon
- Kuwait
- Sri Lanka
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Trends: 1990-2005
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
- Israel
- India
- Pakistan
- Yemen
- Algeria
- Chechnya
- Kenya
- Tanzania
- Panama
- Argentina
- Croatia
- Australia
- Turkey
- Russia
- Morocco
- Indonesia
- Saudi Arabia
- Afghanistan
- Indonesia
- Spain
- U.K.
- U.S.
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
2001
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0
2002
2003
2004
2005
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Suicide Attacks Worldwide : 2001 -- 2005
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Suicide Terrorism: Why?
Because it works . . .
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Marine Barracks Beirut, Lebanon
23 October 1983
“We couldn’t stay there and run the risk of
another suicide attack on the Marines.”
• 241 Dead
• 105 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
-- Ronald Reagan, An American Life
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Why Are Suicide Attacks Effective?
• Suicide attacks work because they have a different
structure
• With suicide terrorism model the weaker acts as coercer
and the stronger actor is the target
• Key difference
– Target of suicide campaign cannot
easily adjust to minimize future damage
Baghdad -- 14 Oct 03
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Questions?
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Counterterrorism
Strategy Post-9/11
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
2. MIDLIFE (formerly DIME) CT Approach
Question: Once we understand the threat, how do we address it?
Answer: We employ all the instruments of national power available to us.
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Military
Intelligence
Diplomacy
Legal
Information
Financial
Economic
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
• Case studies of groups and
events help us learn about
each of these dimensions
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Intelligence: Learn from our own mistakes
• We assumed simultaneous 9/11 attacks in U.S. were
beyond the capabilities of terrorists
• Overestimated the significance of past successes & the
terrorists’ own incompetence
• Attention was focused exclusively on opposite ends of
the terrorist technological spectrum
• Believed terrorists were still
interested in publicity and not killing
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Elements of the National CT Strategy
4 D’s:
• Defeat terrorist organizations of a
global reach
• Deny terrorists the sponsorship,
support, and sanctuary they need
to survive
• Diminish the underlying conditions
that promote the despair and
destructive visions of political
change that lead people to
embrace terrorism
• Defend against terrorist attacks on
the U.S., our citizens and our
interests around the world
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Coordination Levels
ALLIES
ALLIES
Coalition
OTHER
AGENCIES
DOD
DOS
Interagency
CIA
Joint
Army
Navy
Air Force
Marines
Army
Combined
Arms
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
National Counterterrorism Center
• NCTC currently has assignees (USG staff) from:
• Federal Bureau of Investigation
• Department of Defense
• Central Intelligence Agency
• Department of Homeland Security
• Department of State
• Others – DOE, NRC, HHS, USDA, USCHP
• Assignees to NCTC retain authorities of parent entities
• In NCTC, key organizations involved in the fight against terrorism are
collectively fulfilling shared responsibilities
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Terrorism Information Access and Integration
In NCTC, key organizations involved in the fight against terrorism are collectively
fulfilling shared responsibilities
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Toward a Counterterrorism “System”
• Beyond implementing Center responsibilities, the greater goal
is facilitating a counterterrorism “system” as part of a greater
U.S. Government (USG) system-of-systems
• All USG elements need not be centralized; however,
a distributed but integrated framework must be consciously agreed upon and orchestrated
• Roles and responsibilities of USG CT elements must be as unambiguous and
straightforward as possible; intentional rather than haphazard redundancy
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Questions?
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies